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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Offerpad Solutions Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in buying, selling, renting, and renovating properties to homeowners in the United States.It operates iBuying, a real estate solutions platform for on-demand customer.The company provides customer-centric experience, which enables them to sell and buy homes online with streamlined access to ancillary services, such as mortgage and title insurance services.


Offerpad Solutions Inc.was founded in 2015 and is headquartered in Chandler, Arizona.

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1.b. Last Insights on OPAD

Offerpad Solutions Inc.'s recent performance was positively driven by several developments. The company reported Q2 revenue of $160.3M and sold 452 homes during the quarter, showcasing momentum across asset-light services. Additionally, Offerpad completed a capital raise, which likely bolstered investor confidence. Its HomePro program, launched companywide in June, is gaining traction, enabling certified agents to provide in-home solutions to sellers. Furthermore, the company's quarterly loss narrowed to $0.4 per share from $0.5 per share a year ago.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Offerpad's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Step Towards Stability

Offerpad reported revenue of $133 million and sold 367 homes in Q3, with a gross margin of 7%, resulting in $9.3 million of gross profit. The company's EPS came in at -$0.34, missing estimates of -$0.29. Operating expenses, excluding property costs, totaled approximately $12 million, a 37% year-over-year reduction. Adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially by 4% to a loss of $4.6 million. The financial performance indicates a challenging environment, but with signs of stability emerging, as noted by CEO Brian Bair, "signs of stability are emerging, including easing mortgage rates, improving buyer confidence, and increasing sales activity."

Publication Date: Nov -24

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue and Margin Performance: Generated $133M revenue, 7% gross margin ($9.3M gross profit), with operating expenses down 37% YoY to $12M.
  • EBITDA Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $4.6M, a 4% sequential improvement from prior quarters.
  • Transaction Mix Shift: Aiming for 50% asset-light services (vs. 33% currently) and 50% Cash Offer, targeting 1,000 quarterly transactions by 2026.
  • Leadership and Cost Reduction: Appointed Chris Carpenter as COO, reduced annual fixed expenses by $150M, and operating expenses from $16M to $12M.

Operational Highlights

Offerpad's strategy focuses on four pillars: Cash Offer, HomePro, Renovate, and Direct+. The company expects heightened seasonality in Q4 and guides revenue between $100 million and $125 million and homes sold in a range of 300 to 350. The near-term goal remains 1,000 transactions per quarter across cash offers, traditional listings, and investor services. The company is seeing positive signs with HomePro, where it's meeting sellers where they're at and maximizing conversion.

Growth Initiatives

The company expects the mix of asset-light services to increase, with a goal of over 50% of transactions coming from these services in the future, up from the current roughly 1/3, 2/3 split between asset-light and Cash Offer. To achieve this, Offerpad is leveraging technology to scale smarter, focusing on growing with advances in AI, and plans to increase headcount mainly in HomePro, utilizing data and technology.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 0.08 and an EV/EBITDA of -0.78, the market seems to have priced in the challenges Offerpad is facing. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 9.3%. The company's goal to achieve breakeven by 2026, targeting 1,000 transactions, is ambitious but seems achievable with the current trajectory. The appointment of Chris Carpenter as COO is expected to bring fresh perspectives and skill sets to achieve the company's goals, focusing on conversion, scaling, and transformation.

Market Environment

The company is seeing early signs of increased market activity, with more sellers and buyers engaging, and purchase loan apps increasing. The environment seems to be improving, with interest rates in the lower 6s making it more comfortable for the company to buy homes and be more aggressive. This, combined with the company's efforts to reduce fixed expenses and increase asset-light services, positions Offerpad for potential growth in the coming quarters.

3. NewsRoom

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Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -04

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Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

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Offerpad Strengthens Liquidity and Drives Margin Improvement in Third Quarter 2025

Nov -03

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Offerpad Appoints Chris Carpenter as Chief Operating Officer

Nov -03

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Offerpad to Release Third Quarter 2025 Results on November 3rd

Oct -08

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Offerpad Solutions Inc. (OPAD) Presents At Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference 2025 Transcript

Sep -16

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Offerpad Solutions (OPAD) Surges 29.9%: Is This an Indication of Further Gains?

Sep -12

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Offerpad Unveils Enhanced HomePro Program, Empowering Real Estate Agents and Sellers with Streamlined Solutions

Sep -09

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.27%)

6. Segments

Home Buying and Selling Platform

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Offerpad's 10.27% growth driven by increasing demand for convenient, tech-enabled home buying and selling experiences. Key drivers include expanding market presence, strategic partnerships, and innovative product offerings such as instant cash offers and flexible closing timelines, which appeal to millennials and Gen Z homebuyers.

7. Detailed Products

Instant Buyer

A platform that allows homeowners to sell their properties quickly and easily, providing a fast and convenient way to get a cash offer.

Partner Agent

A program that partners with real estate agents to provide them with a competitive advantage in their local markets, offering a range of tools and resources to help them grow their business.

ExpressCash

A service that provides homeowners with a fast and convenient way to access cash, using their property as collateral.

Homeowner Financing

A range of financing options for homeowners, including mortgages and home equity loans, designed to help them achieve their financial goals.

8. Offerpad Solutions Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Offerpad Solutions Inc. operates in a niche market with limited substitutes, but the threat of substitutes is still present due to the growing demand for alternative real estate solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Offerpad Solutions Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's unique business model and proprietary technology make it difficult for customers to negotiate prices.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Offerpad Solutions Inc. relies on a network of suppliers for its operations, but the company's scale and market position give it some bargaining power. However, the threat of supplier concentration and dependence on a few key suppliers is still present.

Threat Of New Entrants

The real estate technology industry is rapidly evolving, and new entrants with innovative business models and technologies can easily disrupt the market. Offerpad Solutions Inc. needs to continuously innovate and improve its offerings to stay ahead of potential new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The real estate technology industry is highly competitive, with several established players and new entrants vying for market share. Offerpad Solutions Inc. faces intense competition from companies like Zillow, Redfin, and Opendoor, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 71.94%
Debt Cost 7.22%
Equity Weight 28.06%
Equity Cost 13.99%
WACC 9.12%
Leverage 256.36%

11. Quality Control: Offerpad Solutions Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Redfin

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 7.5

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Transcontinental Realty Investors

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Anywhere Real Estate

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.1

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 2.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Offerpad Solutions

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Comstock

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 7.4

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Fathom Holdings

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.88$

Current Price

1.88$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows