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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.manufactures and sells hair care products.The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair.


It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retailers, and everyday consumers.The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Santa Barbara, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on OLPX

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance was negatively impacted by disappointing earnings, which led to a stock price gap down. The company's Q4 growth was slow, varying significantly between sales channels, and growth has remained sluggish despite massive marketing investments. Weak 2026 guidance suggests a lack of success in the company's brand turnaround, making the investment unattractive without reaccelerated growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Olaplex Holdings' Transformative Year: A Review of 2025 and Outlook for 2026

Olaplex Holdings reported a flat revenue of $423 million for the full year 2025, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 22.2%. The fourth quarter saw a 4.3% year-over-year increase in net sales to $105.1 million, driven by strong holiday performance across professional and direct-to-consumer channels. The company's adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $12.9 million, representing a 12.2% margin. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at -$0.01966, missing estimates of $0.00739.

Publication Date: Mar -06

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 Revenue Growth:: Net sales rose 4.3% YoY to $105.1 million in Q4 2025.
  • Full-Year EBITDA Margin:: Adjusted EBITDA margin was 22.2% ($93.9 million) for 2025.
  • Professional Channel Expansion:: Professional sales surged 18.9% YoY to $36.8 million in Q4.
  • 2026 Guidance:: Net sales projected at -2% to +3% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA margin of 21-22%.
  • SG&A Stability:: Adjusted SG&A increased $40.8 million YoY in 2025 but expected to remain flat in 2026.

Segment Performance and Strategic Shifts

The professional channel saw an 18.9% year-over-year increase in sales for the fourth quarter, driven by innovation and strong participation in global holiday events. In contrast, specialty retail declined 14.5% year over year due to the company's strategic pivot towards professional partners. Direct-to-consumer sales increased 6.6% year over year, with the company successfully capturing demand around key shopping events. According to Catherine Dunleavy, "We deliberately shifted international volume towards the professional channel as a primary growth engine."

Guidance for 2026 and Key Initiatives

Olaplex expects net sales in 2026 to be in the range of approximately -2% to +3% versus fiscal year 2025. The company is focusing on energizing its hero products, fueling science-based innovation, and expanding its diversified go-to-market model. Adjusted EBITDA margin is expected to be between 21% to 22%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.8%, indicating a relatively stable outlook.

Valuation Metrics and Investment Considerations

With a Price-to-Sales Ratio of 2.31 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.77, Olaplex's valuation appears reasonable considering its growth prospects. However, the negative ROE of -1.05% and a low ROIC of 0.5% indicate room for improvement in terms of profitability. As the company continues to execute its transformation plan, investors will be watching for progress in these areas.

3. NewsRoom

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Why Wall Street has written off Olaplex

Mar -10

Source: youtube.com

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Olaplex stock has plunged since its IPO. Here's how the hair care brand is trying to turn itself around

Mar -10

Source: cnbc.com

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Olaplex: The Turnaround Is Lagging

Mar -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) Shares Gap Down on Disappointing Earnings

Mar -06

Source: defenseworld.net

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Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Mar -05

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Olaplex (OLPX) Q4 Earnings

Mar -05

Source: zacks.com

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Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (OLPX) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Top Estimates

Mar -05

Source: zacks.com

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OLAPLEX Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Results

Mar -05

Source: globenewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.08%)

6. Segments

Professional

Expected Growth: 5%

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s 5-level growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly hair care products, expansion into new markets, strategic partnerships, and innovative product launches. Additionally, the company's strong online presence, influencer marketing, and loyalty programs contribute to its rapid growth.

Direct-to-consumer

Expected Growth: 3%

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s direct-to-consumer segment growth is driven by increasing brand awareness, strong social media presence, and influencer partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on product innovation, expansion into new markets, and strategic pricing strategies contribute to its growth. Furthermore, the shift towards online shopping and the demand for premium hair care products also support the segment's growth.

Specialty Retail

Expected Growth: 4%

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s Specialty Retail segment growth is driven by increasing demand for premium hair care products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships with high-end salons and spas. Additionally, the company's innovative products, such as its patented Bond Multiplying System, have gained popularity among consumers, contributing to the segment's 4% growth.

7. Detailed Products

Olaplex Bond Multiplying System

A patented, three-step system that repairs and protects hair bonds during chemical services

Olaplex No.1 Bond Multiplier

A bond multiplier that repairs and protects hair bonds during chemical services

Olaplex No.2 Bond Perfector

A bond perfector that repairs and protects hair bonds after chemical services

Olaplex No.3 Hair Perfector

A hair perfector that repairs and protects hair bonds at home

Olaplex No.4 Bond Maintenance Shampoo

A gentle, sulfate-free shampoo that cleanses and maintains hair bonds

Olaplex No.5 Bond Maintenance Conditioner

A nourishing, sulfate-free conditioner that moisturizes and maintains hair bonds

8. Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of established competitors in the hair care industry, but the company's patented technology and strong brand recognition mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to its strong brand loyalty and the lack of significant buyer concentration in the hair care industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, but the company's scale and negotiating power mitigate this threat to some extent.

Threat Of New Entrants

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a low threat of new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the hair care industry, including the need for significant investment in research and development and marketing.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. operates in a highly competitive hair care industry, with many established players competing for market share, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 43.70%
Debt Cost 11.01%
Equity Weight 56.30%
Equity Cost 15.60%
WACC 13.59%
Leverage 77.61%

11. Quality Control: Olaplex Holdings, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Kirkland's

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ThredUp

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Conn's

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Solo Brands

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Olaplex

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
GrowGen

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.33$

Current Price

1.33$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows