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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.manufactures and sells hair care products.The company offers hair care shampoos and conditioners for use in treatment, maintenance, and protection of hair.


It provides hair care products to professional hair salons, retailers, and everyday consumers.The company was founded in 2014 and is based in Santa Barbara, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on OLPX

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance was positively driven by its solid Q3 earnings report, which met expectations with quarterly earnings of $0.02 per share. The company's technical trading rebound in December, priced near book value with minimal net debt, also contributed to its positive momentum. Additionally, analyst optimism about its earnings prospects led to an upgrade to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Furthermore, the company's potential for cash EPS to reach $0.12 by 2026, assuming top-line growth resumes, is a promising outlook. Institutional ownership also remains strong at 87.4%.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Olaplex Holdings' Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag with Strategic Progress

Olaplex Holdings reported third-quarter net sales of $114.6 million, a 3.8% decrease year-over-year, yet better than expectations. Adjusted EBITDA was $30.8 million, a margin of 26.9%, outperforming expectations. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.02, in line with estimates. The company's adjusted gross profit margin expanded to 71.5%, up 70 basis points year-over-year, driven by improved promotional experiences. However, adjusted SG&A increased by $29.7 million year-over-year, primarily due to investments in sales and marketing.

Publication Date: Nov -30

📋 Highlights
  • Net Sales Decline: Q3 net sales were $114.6 million, down 3.8% year-over-year, though better than expectations.
  • Professional Channel Growth: Professional sales increased 5.3% YoY to $44.5 million, driven by strong promotion management.
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: Adjusted EBITDA reached $30.8 million with a 26.9% margin, exceeding forecasted guidance.
  • Hair Mask Success: The Hair Mask launch achieved a 4.7-star review average, driving new and existing customer engagement.
  • Inventory Reduction: Inventory decreased by $12.6 million compared to Q3 2024, reflecting improved working capital management.

Channel Performance and Strategic Priorities

The professional channel saw net sales grow 5.3% year-over-year to $44.5 million, driven by strong management of promotions and reinvestment in partnerships. Specialty retail declined 13.5% year-over-year to $36.9 million, with the company believing inventory levels at key customers are in a healthy position. The company's three strategic priorities for 2025 - generating brand demand, harnessing innovation, and executing with excellence - are showing early signs of progress, with the hair mask launch and 360-degree marketing campaign contributing to improved sell-through trends.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 1.82 and EV/EBITDA of 12.03, the market appears to be pricing in moderate growth expectations. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.6%. The company's guidance for the fourth quarter is wide, implying caution about the holiday season. Olaplex is reaffirming its full-year 2025 guidance, expecting net sales in the range of minus 3% to plus 2% versus fiscal year 2024, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20% to 22%. The company's focus on long-term growth, profitability, and executional excellence is expected to drive sustainable growth.

Strategic Investments and Innovation

Olaplex is making significant strategic investments to establish a foundation for long-term success, including in marketing and people. The company is harnessing innovation, with the hair mask launch seeing a positive consumer response, and is using technology from the Purvala acquisition in various formulas. The company's 3-pronged distribution strategy is driving strength in the professional channel, and it is working on partnerships to grow the brand's visibility.

3. NewsRoom

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Pigeon (OTCMKTS:PGENY) and Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) Financial Comparison

Jan -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Olaplex Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:OLPX) Receives $1.81 Average Target Price from Analysts

Jan -14

Source: defenseworld.net

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Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) & Reynolds Consumer Products (NASDAQ:REYN) Critical Review

Jan -11

Source: defenseworld.net

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Olaplex draws takeover interest from Germany's Henkel, Bloomberg News reports

Jan -07

Source: reuters.com

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Financial Contrast: RealReal (NASDAQ:REAL) & Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX)

Jan -03

Source: defenseworld.net

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Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX) & Advantage Solutions (NASDAQ:ADV) Head-To-Head Survey

Dec -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Contrasting Maison Solutions (NASDAQ:MSS) and Olaplex (NASDAQ:OLPX)

Dec -27

Source: defenseworld.net

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The Bottom Fishing Club - Olaplex: Solid Turnaround Potential In Hair Care

Dec -23

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.08%)

6. Segments

Professional

Expected Growth: 5%

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s 5-level growth is driven by increasing demand for sustainable and eco-friendly hair care products, expansion into new markets, strategic partnerships, and innovative product launches. Additionally, the company's strong online presence, influencer marketing, and loyalty programs contribute to its rapid growth.

Direct-to-consumer

Expected Growth: 3%

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s direct-to-consumer segment growth is driven by increasing brand awareness, strong social media presence, and influencer partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on product innovation, expansion into new markets, and strategic pricing strategies contribute to its growth. Furthermore, the shift towards online shopping and the demand for premium hair care products also support the segment's growth.

Specialty Retail

Expected Growth: 4%

Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s Specialty Retail segment growth is driven by increasing demand for premium hair care products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships with high-end salons and spas. Additionally, the company's innovative products, such as its patented Bond Multiplying System, have gained popularity among consumers, contributing to the segment's 4% growth.

7. Detailed Products

Olaplex Bond Multiplying System

A patented, three-step system that repairs and protects hair bonds during chemical services

Olaplex No.1 Bond Multiplier

A bond multiplier that repairs and protects hair bonds during chemical services

Olaplex No.2 Bond Perfector

A bond perfector that repairs and protects hair bonds after chemical services

Olaplex No.3 Hair Perfector

A hair perfector that repairs and protects hair bonds at home

Olaplex No.4 Bond Maintenance Shampoo

A gentle, sulfate-free shampoo that cleanses and maintains hair bonds

Olaplex No.5 Bond Maintenance Conditioner

A nourishing, sulfate-free conditioner that moisturizes and maintains hair bonds

8. Olaplex Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a moderate threat of substitutes due to the presence of established competitors in the hair care industry, but the company's patented technology and strong brand recognition mitigate this threat to some extent.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers due to its strong brand loyalty and the lack of significant buyer concentration in the hair care industry.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers due to the presence of multiple suppliers in the market, but the company's scale and negotiating power mitigate this threat to some extent.

Threat Of New Entrants

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. has a low threat of new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the hair care industry, including the need for significant investment in research and development and marketing.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Olaplex Holdings, Inc. operates in a highly competitive hair care industry, with many established players competing for market share, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 43.70%
Debt Cost 11.01%
Equity Weight 56.30%
Equity Cost 15.60%
WACC 13.59%
Leverage 77.61%

11. Quality Control: Olaplex Holdings, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Kirkland's

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 2.2

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ThredUp

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Conn's

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 1.8

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Solo Brands

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 10.0

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 3.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 0.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Olaplex

A-Score: 3.4/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
GrowGen

A-Score: 3.3/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 1.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1.53$

Current Price

1.53$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows