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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

PotlatchDeltic (NASDAQ:PCH) is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that owns 1.8 million acres of timberlands in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Louisiana, Minnesota and Mississippi.Through its taxable REIT subsidiary, the company also operates six sawmills, an industrial-grade plywood mill, a residential and commercial real estate development business and a rural timberland sales program.PotlatchDeltic, a leader in sustainable forest management, is committed to environmental and social responsibility and to responsible governance.

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1.b. Last Insights on PCH

PotlatchDeltic Corporation's recent performance was positively driven by its Q2 2025 earnings beat, with net income of $7.4 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, on revenues of $275.0 million. The company's Adjusted EBITDDA margin was 18.9%, and it repurchased 1,418,800 shares for $55.9 million, demonstrating a disciplined capital allocation strategy. Additionally, the company's timberland real estate investment trust (REIT) and wood products manufacturing business is well-positioned to benefit from infrastructure spending and product innovation.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. PotlatchDeltic's Q3 Earnings: A Strong Performance Driven by Real Estate

PotlatchDeltic reported total adjusted EBITDA of $89 million in the third quarter, driven by a strong performance in its real estate business, with both rural and development segments contributing significantly. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.36, significantly beating estimates of $0.15. Revenue growth is expected to be around 2.4% next year according to analysts' estimates. The company's financial performance was also reflected in its Timberlands segment, which saw an increase in adjusted EBITDA from $40 million in the second quarter to $41 million in the third quarter.

Publication Date: Nov -08

📋 Highlights
  • Total Adjusted EBITDA: $89 million for Q3 2025, driven by real estate sales and timberlands performance.
  • Proposed Merger with Rayonier: Combined company would own 4.2 million acres of timberlands and $40 million in synergies.
  • Wood Products Loss: $2 million EBITDA loss due to weak lumber prices ($396/MBF vs. $450/MBF QoQ).
  • Real Estate Sales: Generated $63 million EBITDA; 15,600 rural acres sold at $3,300/acre and 55 residential lots at $139K/lot.
  • Outlook: Q4 EBITDA expected to decline due to lower harvest volumes, reduced real estate activity, and seasonal factors.

Segment Performance

The Timberlands segment delivered a harvest volume of 1.9 million tons, with Idaho producing its highest quarterly volume so far this year. The Wood Products business reported an EBITDA loss of $2 million, primarily driven by lower lumber prices, with average lumber price realization decreasing by $54 per thousand board feet. The Real Estate segment generated adjusted EBITDA of $63 million, driven by strong rural and development sales activity, including the sale of 15,600 acres at an average price of nearly $3,300 per acre.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects total adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter to be lower than third-quarter results, mainly driven by fewer rural real estate acres sold and seasonally lower harvest volumes in Timberlands. Eric Cremers mentioned that lumber prices might increase by 2-4% in the fourth quarter and expects flat performance in the Wood Products business excluding price. The company's guidance is supported by its expectation of a combined company's greater scale and diversification, mitigating exposure to any one market.

Valuation and Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 77.79, P/B Ratio of 1.69, and EV/EBITDA of 24.72, the company's valuation metrics indicate a premium pricing. The company's ROE and ROIC are at 2.08% and 2.54% respectively, indicating a relatively low return on equity and invested capital. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is at 5.77, indicating a moderate level of debt. The Dividend Yield is at 4.35%, which may be attractive to income-seeking investors.

Management Insights

Eric Cremers stated that the combined company with Rayonier will have greater scale and diversification, and that different regions react differently to events. He also mentioned that the company is trying to lower per-unit costs in their mills, and that lumber inventories in the channel are lean. Wayne Wasechek mentioned that there's strong demand for rural real estate for recreation and conservation purposes, and that the company is still bullish on solar despite concerns about government funding cuts.

3. NewsRoom

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Financial Analysis: Nature Wood Group (NASDAQ:NWGL) & Potlatch (NASDAQ:PCH)

Dec -01

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Here Are Mondays Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: AppLovin, Block, Broadcom, DataDog, Dell Technologies, Gap, Pure Storage and More

Nov -17

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Mason Hawkins' Strategic Moves: Rayonier Inc. Takes Center Stage with 6.09% Portfolio Share

Nov -14

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Teacher Retirement System of Texas Has $1.30 Million Position in Potlatch Corporation $PCH

Nov -06

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PotlatchDeltic Corporation (PCH) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -04

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PotlatchDeltic: The Idaho Portfolio Is Catching My Eyes

Nov -04

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Potlatch (PCH) Beats Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Nov -04

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PotlatchDeltic Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results

Nov -03

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.75%)

6. Segments

Wood Products

Expected Growth: 1.8%

PotlatchDeltic's Wood Products segment growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing demand for lumber and panels in the repair and remodeling market, supported by a strong housing market and rising DIY activities. Additionally, the company's strategic focus on operational efficiency and cost reduction initiatives contribute to the segment's growth.

Timberlands

Expected Growth: 1.5%

PotlatchDeltic Corporation's Timberlands segment growth of 1.5% is driven by increasing demand for lumber and wood products, fueled by a strong housing market and infrastructure development. Additionally, the company's strategic timberland acquisitions and sustainable forestry practices contribute to the growth, while favorable weather conditions and efficient harvesting operations also support the segment's expansion.

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 2.2%

PotlatchDeltic Corporation's 2.2% growth in Real Estate is driven by increasing demand for timberlands, strategic land sales, and recreational properties. Additionally, the company's focus on rural land development and conservation efforts contribute to its growth. Furthermore, the rising trend of outdoor recreation and eco-tourism also boosts the demand for its properties.

Other Intersegment

Expected Growth: 1.2%

The 1.2% growth in Other Intersegment from PotlatchDeltic Corporation is driven by increased timberland sales, higher prices for wood products, and a strong demand for lumber and panels. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions and divestitures have optimized its portfolio, leading to improved operational efficiencies and cost savings.

7. Detailed Products

Timber

Harvested timber from sustainably managed forests, available in various species and grades

Real Estate

Rural and recreational properties for sale, including undeveloped land and improved properties

Wood Products

Manufactured wood products, including lumber, plywood, and engineered wood

Land Management

Services for landowners, including forestry management, land sales, and recreational leasing

Recreational Leases

Leases for recreational activities such as hunting, fishing, and camping

8. PotlatchDeltic Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for PotlatchDeltic Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative products and services in the timber and real estate industries.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for PotlatchDeltic Corporation is low due to the company's diversified customer base and lack of concentration in a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for PotlatchDeltic Corporation is medium due to the availability of alternative suppliers in the timber and real estate industries.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for PotlatchDeltic Corporation is low due to the high barriers to entry in the timber and real estate industries, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for PotlatchDeltic Corporation is high due to the competitive nature of the timber and real estate industries, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 32.41%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 67.59%
Equity Cost 9.90%
WACC 7.97%
Leverage 47.94%

11. Quality Control: PotlatchDeltic Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Hannon Armstrong

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 9.1

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Rayonier

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Outfront Media

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
SBA Communications

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
PotlatchDeltic

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 2.3

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Weyerhaeuser

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 2.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

39.36$

Current Price

39.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows