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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

PROG Holdings, Inc.operates as an omnichannel provider of lease-purchase solutions to underserved and credit-challenged customers.It operates in two segments, Progressive Leasing and Vive.


The Progressive Leasing segment offers lease-purchase solutions to customers for various merchandize in the furniture, appliances, electronics, jewelry, mobile phones and accessories, mattresses, and automobile electronics and accessories markets through point-of-sale and e-commerce retail partners, as well in-store, mobile, and online solutions.The Vive segment provides second-look and revolving credit products to customers that may not qualify for traditional prime lending through private label and Vive-branded credit cards.It offers lease-purchase solutions through approximately 24,000 third-party point-of-sale partner locations and e-commerce websites in 49 states and the District of Columbia.


The company was formerly known as Aaron's Holdings Company, Inc.and changed its name to PROG Holdings, Inc.in December 2020.


PROG Holdings, Inc.was founded in 1955 and is based in Draper, Utah.

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1.b. Last Insights on PRG

Negative drivers behind PROG Holdings' recent 3-month performance include partner bankruptcies and Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) headwinds. The company's Purchasing Power acquisition, valued at $420M, is expected to enhance EBITDA but may temporarily increase leverage to ~2.1x net debt / Adjusted EBITDA. Risks centered on partner concentration, regulation, and discretionary goods exposure also persist. Moreover, the company's evolution from a leasing-centric business to a multi-product consumer access platform may pose execution challenges.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. PROG Holdings' Q4 Results Exceed Expectations Amidst Challenging Environment

PROG Holdings, Inc. reported Q4 consolidated revenues of $574.6 million, a 5.2% year-over-year decline, but adjusted EBITDA of $61.5 million and non-GAAP EPS of $0.74 exceeded the high end of their outlook. The actual EPS came out at $0.74 relative to estimates at $0.6. For the full year, consolidated adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations was approximately $269 million, or 11.2% of revenue, and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $3.51.

Publication Date: Mar -08

📋 Highlights
  • For's BNPL Segment Growth:: Delivered 170% full-year revenue growth in 2025, with a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin ($9.9M) and $730M GMV (144% YoY).
  • Consolidated GMV Expansion:: Rose 12.1% in 2025 ($4.3B+), driven by For’s triple-digit GMV growth despite Progressive Leasing’s 8.6% YoY decline.
  • 2026 Financial Outlook:: Projects $3B–$3.1B revenue, $320M–$350M adjusted EBITDA, and $4.00–$4.45 non-GAAP EPS, with 20%+ EPS growth from Purchasing Power acquisition.
  • Purchasing Power Contribution:: Expected to add $680M–$730M revenue and $50M–$60M adjusted EBITDA in 2026, with 7–8% EBITDA margin and low double-digit revenue growth.
  • Debt Reduction & Liquidity:: Aims for 1.5–2.0x net leverage ratio by 2026, with $659M liquidity post-acquisition and $308.8M cash at year-end 2025.

Segment Performance

The Progressive Leasing segment saw Q4 GMV decline 10.6% year-over-year, primarily due to the Big Lots bankruptcy and intentional tightening actions. However, digital channels were a bright spot, with Progressive Leasing's digital marketplace GMV increasing 187% year-over-year. For Technologies delivered triple-digit GMV and revenue growth, with approximately $730 million of GMV in 2025, representing 144% growth year-over-year, and $10 million of adjusted EBITDA.

Outlook and Guidance

The company expects an operating environment that remains challenging in 2026, particularly for the consumer segments it serves. However, it plans to reinvest in the business following its three-pillared strategy to Grow, Enhance, and Expand, with an emphasis on its multiproduct offering. For 2026, the company expects revenues to be in the range of $3 billion to $3.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $320 million to $350 million, and non-GAAP EPS in the range of $4.00 to $4.45.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 9.0 and an EV/EBITDA of 0.88, the stock appears to be reasonably valued. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 7.0%. The company's capital-light business model is expected to generate significant cash flow, with an emphasis on deleveraging the balance sheet. The acquisition of Purchasing Power is expected to contribute to the company's growth, with a low double-digit revenue growth and 7-8% adjusted EBITDA margin.

Conclusion on Financial Health

The company ended 2025 with $308.8 million of cash and total available liquidity of approximately $659 million. Net leverage at 12/31/2025 was 1.1 times trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA, which increased to approximately 2.5 times following the acquisition of Purchasing Power. The company's financial health is expected to improve with its focus on debt reduction and targeting a long-term net leverage ratio of 1.5 to two times.

3. NewsRoom

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Aaron’s Holdings Company, Inc. (NYSE:PRG) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Buy” by Brokerages

Apr -13

Source: defenseworld.net

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Aaron’s Holdings Company, Inc. $PRG Shares Bought by SG Americas Securities LLC

Apr -08

Source: defenseworld.net

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PROG Holdings, Inc. to Release First Quarter 2026 Financial Results on April 29, 2026

Apr -07

Source: businesswire.com

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Why PROG Holdings (PRG) is a Great Dividend Stock Right Now

Mar -19

Source: zacks.com

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PROG Holdings, Inc. (PRG) Analyst/Investor Day Transcript

Mar -13

Source: seekingalpha.com

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PROG Holdings, Inc. Investor Day Recap: Strategic Vision Outlined Including Selective Three-Year CAGR Financial Targets

Mar -11

Source: businesswire.com

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Is Prog Holdings (PRG) Outperforming Other Finance Stocks This Year?

Mar -10

Source: zacks.com

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PROG Holdings Updates 2026 Outlook Ahead of Investor Day

Mar -10

Source: businesswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.99%)

6. Segments

Progressive Leasing

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Progressive Leasing's 2.0% growth is driven by increasing adoption of lease-to-own solutions, expansion into new retail partners, and strategic investments in e-commerce and digital capabilities. Additionally, the company's focus on providing affordable payment options and its ability to reach underserved consumers contribute to its growth momentum.

Vive

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Vive's 1.8% growth is driven by increasing adoption of point-of-sale payment solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the rise of omnichannel commerce and growing demand for digital payment options contribute to Vive's growth. Furthermore, PROG Holdings' diversified revenue streams and cost savings initiatives also support Vive's growth momentum.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.5%

PROG Holdings, Inc.'s 1.5% growth in 'Other' segment is driven by increasing adoption of its e-commerce solutions, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and investments in emerging technologies have contributed to this growth.

7. Detailed Products

Progressive Leasing

A lease-to-own solution that allows customers to lease merchandise over time, with the option to purchase at any time.

Vive Financial

A provider of consumer financing solutions, offering credit products and services to underserved consumers.

PROG Holdings' e-commerce platform

A platform that enables customers to shop online and have products shipped directly to their doorstep.

PROG Holdings' retail partnerships

Partnerships with retailers to offer lease-to-own and financing solutions to customers at the point of sale.

8. PROG Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

PROG Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive industry with various alternatives available to customers, which moderately threatens the company's market share.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

PROG Holdings, Inc. has a large customer base, but the concentration of customers is relatively low, giving customers significant bargaining power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

PROG Holdings, Inc. has a diverse supplier base, reducing the bargaining power of individual suppliers, and the company's scale of operations also gives it negotiating power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The industry in which PROG Holdings, Inc. operates has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles, making it difficult for new entrants to join the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The industry in which PROG Holdings, Inc. operates is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share, leading to a high intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 50.70%
Debt Cost 6.83%
Equity Weight 49.30%
Equity Cost 14.13%
WACC 10.43%
Leverage 102.84%

11. Quality Control: PROG Holdings, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
PROG Holdings

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 4.3

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Value: 3.3

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 1.0

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Willis Lease Finance

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.7

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 4.3

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Custom Truck One Source

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.3

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.3

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Hertz

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 8.5

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 1.3

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FlexShopper

A-Score: 3.0/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

30.38$

Current Price

30.38$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows