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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally.The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors.It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model.


In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions.Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

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1.b. Last Insights on RDW

Redwire Corporation's recent performance was negatively impacted by weak Q4 2024 earnings and revenue miss, as well as light bookings. The company's Q4 results fell short of expectations, with revenues declining and bookings looking fairly light. Additionally, the pending Edge Autonomy acquisition, which offers significant growth potential, was not enough to offset the disappointing Q4 results. The company's redemption of outstanding public warrants also weighed on its performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Redwire's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Redwire's financial performance in Q3 2025 was marked by significant revenue growth, with revenues increasing by 67.5% sequentially and 57% year-over-year to $103.4 million. However, the company's adjusted EPS came in at -$0.21, missing estimates of -$0.12. The company's adjusted gross margin also improved to 27.1%, driven by the acquisition of Edge Autonomy, which contributed $49.5 million to revenue. The gross margin expansion was partly due to the inclusion of Edge Autonomy, and the company has now fully recognized the inventory fair value step-up in earnings, which should no longer impact future gross margins.

Publication Date: Nov -24

📋 Highlights
  • Edge Autonomy Acquisition Impact: Boosted Q3 revenue to $103.4M, contributing $49.5M, with adjusted EBITDA improving from -$27.4M to -$2.6M sequentially.
  • Sequential Revenue Growth: 67.5% sequential increase to $103.4M and 57% YoY growth, driven by strong demand in core product areas.
  • Backlog & Book-to-Bill Ratio: $355.6M backlog as of Q3 2025 with a 1.25 ratio, signaling robust future order visibility despite U.S. government shutdown delays.
  • Liquidity Improvement: Total liquidity rose 46.2% YoY to $89.3M ($52.3M cash, $35M undrawn revolver), enhancing operational flexibility.
  • 2025 Revenue Guidance: Revised to $320–$340M for 2025 due to contract delays, but 2026 outlook remains positive with $10B total addressable market potential.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was strong, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.25, resulting in a backlog of $355.6 million as of September 30, 2025. The company's five primary value-driving product areas, including next-gen spacecraft, large space infrastructure, and combat-proven UAS, offer significant growth opportunities, with a total addressable market of approximately $10 billion. As Chris Edmunds, Redwire's Chief Accounting Officer, noted, "We saw a significant improvement in our use of cash from operations, decreasing from $87.7 million in Q2 2025 to $20.3 million in Q3 2025, an improvement of $67.3 million."

Guidance and Outlook

Despite the near-term challenges posed by the U.S. government shutdown, Redwire remains optimistic about its growth prospects. The company has revised its revenue guidance for the 12 months ending December 31, 2025, to $320 million to $340 million, and expects a marked improvement in its financial performance in 2026, driven by its diversification in geography and the potential for new orders in the UAS, VLEO orbit, and commercial space station markets. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 43.1% next year.

Valuation

Redwire's valuation metrics suggest that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations. The company's P/S Ratio is 2.95, and EV/EBITDA is -4.23, indicating that the market is expecting significant improvement in profitability. The company's ROE is -41.6%, and ROIC is -5.57%, indicating that the company is still in a growth phase and has not yet achieved profitability. With a Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 0.05, the company's debt position is manageable.

3. NewsRoom

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Geode Capital Management LLC Buys 407,131 Shares of Redwire Corporation $RDW

Dec -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Redwire: Why The Sell-Off Doesn't Look Like An Opportunity

Dec -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Dutch authority RDW to test Tesla's FSD in February

Nov -24

Source: reuters.com

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Redwire Awarded $44 Million DARPA Contract to Advance Very Low-Earth Orbit Mission

Nov -19

Source: businesswire.com

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Redwire Opens New Facility in Michigan to Increase Production of Critical Fuel Cells for Stalker UAS

Nov -17

Source: businesswire.com

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Redwire Corporation (RDW) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Nov -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Space Stock Tracker—BlackSky, Redwire Dump After Earnings; AST, Rocket Lab On Deck

Nov -06

Source: benzinga.com

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Redwire Corporation (RDW) Reports Q3 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Nov -06

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.47%)

6. Segments

Space Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 10.47%

Redwire Corporation's Space Infrastructure segment growth of 10.47% is driven by increasing demand for satellite constellations, government investments in space-based surveillance, and commercialization of space technology. Additionally, the growing need for secure and reliable communication networks, and the rise of private space companies, are fueling the segment's growth.

7. Detailed Products

Spacecraft Avionics

Redwire's spacecraft avionics provide advanced computing and communication systems for space exploration missions.

In-Orbit Servicing

Redwire's in-orbit servicing capabilities enable satellite life extension, refueling, and repair.

Space-Based Manufacturing

Redwire's space-based manufacturing capabilities enable the production of unique materials and products in microgravity.

Robotics and Automation

Redwire's robotics and automation solutions enable efficient and precise operations in space and on the ground.

Spacecraft Components

Redwire's spacecraft components, including power systems, propulsion systems, and communication systems.

Mission Operations

Redwire's mission operations services provide end-to-end mission support, from planning to execution.

8. Redwire Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Redwire Corporation's threat of substitutes is moderate due to the availability of alternative space technology companies, but the company's specialized expertise and patented technology reduce the likelihood of substitution.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Redwire Corporation's customers, primarily government agencies and private space companies, have limited bargaining power due to the company's unique offerings and specialized expertise.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Redwire Corporation's suppliers, including component manufacturers and service providers, have moderate bargaining power due to the company's dependence on specialized components and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants in the space technology industry is high due to the growing interest in space exploration and the increasing availability of funding for space-related startups.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry in the space technology industry is high due to the presence of established companies and startups competing for government contracts and private investment.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 130.01%
Debt Cost 5.39%
Equity Weight -30.01%
Equity Cost 12.79%
WACC 3.17%
Leverage -433.25%

11. Quality Control: Redwire Corporation passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Innovative Solutions and Support

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 1.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Byrna Technologies

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 9.2

Quality: 8.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AMMO

A-Score: 4.1/10

Value: 7.8

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Smith & Wesson Brands

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 1.9

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Redwire

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
VSE

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 1.2

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.39$

Current Price

6.39$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows