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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States.The company offers a selection of merchandise, including equine, livestock, pet, and small animal products necessary for their health, care, growth, and containment; hardware, truck, towing, and tool products; seasonal products, such as heating products, lawn and garden items, power equipment, gifts, and toys; work/recreational clothing and footwear; and maintenance products for agricultural and rural use.It provides its products under the 4health, Producer's Pride, American Farmworks, Red Shed, Bit & Bridle, Redstone, Blue Mountain, Retriever, C.E. Schmidt, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Dumor, Strive, Groundwork, Traveller, Huskee, Treeline, JobSmart, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Paws & Claws, and Untamed brands.


As of June 25, 2022, it operated 2,016 Tractor Supply stores in 49 states; and 178 Petsense stores in 23 states.The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names.It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others.


The company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.

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1.b. Last Insights on TSCO

Tractor Supply Company's recent performance was negatively impacted by several factors. The company's resilience in the face of a retail stock slump has been questioned, with its one-year returns turning negative. Despite delivering strong Q3 results, with net sales up 7.2% to a record $3.72 billion and EPS rising 8.6%, some analysts have exited their positions, citing concerns. Additionally, institutional investors such as SteelPeak Wealth LLC and Texas Permanent School Fund Corp have reduced their holdings in the company. A rating downgrade was also issued, with a "Moderate Buy" consensus recommendation from analysts.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Tractor Supply's 2025 Earnings: A Closer Look at the Numbers

Tractor Supply Company's fourth-quarter 2025 results were below expectations, with net sales increasing 3.3% to $3.9 billion and comparable store sales up 0.3%, driven by modest growth in average ticket. Diluted EPS was $0.43, missing estimates of $0.46. For the full year 2025, net sales rose 4.3% to $15.5 billion, with diluted EPS of $2.06. The company's guidance for 2026 includes total sales growth of 4-6%, driven by new store openings and improving comp sales, with comp sales growth of 1-3%. Gross margin is expected to expand, while SG&A will experience measured deleverage.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Full-Year Net Sales Growth:: 4.3% to $15.5 billion, with diluted EPS of $2.06 despite Q4 underperformance.
  • 2026 Sales and EPS Guidance:: 4-6% total sales growth and $2.13-$2.23 diluted EPS, driven by 100 new stores and operating margin expansion to 9.3-9.6%.
  • Store and Strategic Investments:: 100 new stores, 160-175 Fusion projects, and a new Idaho DC to expand distribution, targeting $225 billion total addressable market share.
  • Direct Sales and Margin Initiatives:: Doubling sales specialists to 100+ and optimizing final-mile delivery, expected to deliver 40 bps comp sales lift and margin expansion.
  • Cost and Inflation Management:: 1-2% inflation impact in 2026 offset by pricing adjustments and self-help initiatives, with gross margin expansion projected in H2.

Operational Highlights

The company plans to open 100 new stores, invest in growth initiatives, and repurchase shares between $375 million and $450 million. Tractor Supply expects stronger EPS growth in Q2 and Q4 due to easier comparisons. The company remains focused on execution, productivity, and advancing its Life Out Here 2030 Strategy. It continues to believe it can deliver 3% to 5% comparable store sales growth over time, which would lead to operating leverage and improved margins.

Growth Initiatives

In 2026, Tractor Supply is investing in private brands, curated assortments, and capabilities to strengthen value and support margins. It is expanding its direct sales model, with plans to double its sales force, and is rolling out a dedicated in-store destination for outdoor power equipment and battery power tools. The company is also increasing its utilization of its own delivery network and integrating with gig providers to optimize final mile execution.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 24.51 and an EV/EBITDA of 18.52, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.1%, which is slightly above the company's guidance. The company's ROIC of 13.11% and ROE of 44.36% indicate a strong ability to generate returns. As Tractor Supply continues to invest in growth initiatives and expand its capabilities, it remains optimistic about 2026, with a wide range of possible outcomes.

Segment Performance

In Pet, the company is not seeing any indication of share loss and is holding its own in terms of market share. They are focusing on localized assortments, expanding fresh and frozen offerings, and revitalizing brands. The garden center initiative is also progressing well, with over 1,000 stores expected to have some form of garden center or pop-up tent in 2026.

3. NewsRoom

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Here are the retailers with the most store openings and closures planned for 2026

Feb -02

Source: cnbc.com

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Bank of New York Mellon Corp Lowers Stock Holdings in Tractor Supply Company $TSCO

Jan -31

Source: defenseworld.net

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Tractor Supply Company Can Plow New Highs in 2026

Jan -30

Source: marketbeat.com

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Tractor Supply Company Foundation Donates $250,000 to Support Winter Storm Recovery in Middle Tennessee

Jan -30

Source: businesswire.com

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Federated Hermes Inc. Boosts Position in Tractor Supply Company $TSCO

Jan -30

Source: defenseworld.net

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Tractor Supply Co (TSCO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic Growth

Jan -29

Source: gurufocus.com

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Tractor Supply's Q4 Earnings Miss, Comparable Store Sales Rise 0.3%

Jan -29

Source: zacks.com

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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jan -29

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (6.40%)

6. Segments

Retail Sale of Products

Expected Growth: 6.4%

Aligns with global revenue growth hypothesis, driven by steady demand for agricultural and pet care products, with potential for expansion in e-commerce and rural areas.

7. Detailed Products

Livestock Feed

Tractor Supply Company offers a wide range of livestock feed products, including hay, grains, and supplements, to support the health and well-being of livestock.

Pet Food and Supplies

Tractor Supply Company provides a variety of pet food and supplies, including dog food, cat food, and pet accessories, to support the health and happiness of pets.

Fencing and Farming Supplies

Tractor Supply Company offers a range of fencing and farming supplies, including fencing materials, farm equipment, and tools, to support agricultural and livestock operations.

Lawn and Garden Supplies

Tractor Supply Company provides a variety of lawn and garden supplies, including seeds, fertilizers, and gardening tools, to support lawn care and gardening activities.

Clothing and Footwear

Tractor Supply Company offers a range of clothing and footwear, including workwear, outerwear, and footwear, to support outdoor activities and occupations.

Tools and Hardware

Tractor Supply Company provides a variety of tools and hardware, including hand tools, power tools, and building supplies, to support DIY projects and repairs.

8. Tractor Supply Company's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Tractor Supply Company has a low threat of substitutes due to its unique product offerings and strong brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Tractor Supply Company's customers have some bargaining power due to the availability of alternative retailers, but the company's strong brand loyalty and customer service mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Tractor Supply Company has a low bargaining power of suppliers due to its large scale of operations and ability to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

Tractor Supply Company faces a moderate threat of new entrants due to the capital requirements and regulatory hurdles in the industry, but new entrants could still potentially disrupt the market.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Tractor Supply Company operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry among competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 49.44%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 50.56%
Equity Cost 8.00%
WACC 6.00%
Leverage 97.77%

11. Quality Control: Tractor Supply Company passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

52.98$

Current Price

52.98$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows