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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America.The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets.It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties.


The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc.and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc.in June 2019.


United Airlines Holdings, Inc.was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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1.b. Last Insights on UAL

United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s recent performance has been impacted by economic headwinds, labor disputes, and potential government shutdowns, which pose significant risks to its profitability and operational stability. The company's Q3 earnings report showed steady earnings, higher revenues, and solid cost control amid global headwinds. However, some analysts revise forecasts ahead of the earnings call, expecting lower Q3 earnings. On a positive note, United Airlines is poised to benefit from record Thanksgiving travel, with demand rebounding and airlines adding capacity to meet swelling passenger volumes. Institutional investors, such as Allworth Financial LP and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria S.A., have increased their holdings in the company.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. United Airlines Holdings' Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Report

United Airlines Holdings delivered a robust third-quarter 2025 earnings report, with revenue increasing 2.6% to $15.2 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $2.78, surpassing the top end of its guidance range of $2.25 to $2.75. The pretax margin was 8%, and CASM-ex performance was industry-leading at -0.9%. The company's strong financial performance was driven by its strategic investments in customer product enhancements, technology, and loyalty programs.

Publication Date: Oct -17

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth & Earnings Beat:: Q3 revenue rose 2.6% to $15.2B, with EPS of $2.78 exceeding guidance of $2.25–$2.75.
  • Loyalty Program Strength:: Loyalty revenues grew 9% YoY, while redemption revenue surged 15% YoY.
  • Customer Experience Investment:: $1B+ annual spend on product enhancements, including Starlink WiFi, drove 7% higher customer NPS in summer 2025 vs. 2024.
  • Operational Efficiency:: Lowest cancellation rate in Q3 history and a 8% pretax margin, with CASM-ex at -0.9% industry-leading performance.
  • Future Margin Expansion:: Targets 100 bps annual margin improvement via premium cabin growth (6% YoY revenue) and 2–3% CASM-ex growth through cost discipline.

Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion

The company's revenue growth was driven by a 7.2% increase in capacity, with consolidated TRASM down 4.3%. Domestic PRASM was down 3.3%, while international PRASM was down 7.1%. However, premium revenues were up 6% year-over-year, and PRASM for premium cabins outperformed the main cabin by 5 points. United expects its consolidated RASM to improve in Q4 year-over-year, with international RASMs outperforming domestic.

Investments in Customer Experience and Technology

United is investing over $1 billion annually in customer product enhancements, which has helped the company win brand-loyal customers. The company's investments in technology, including a new app and on-time flight capabilities, have improved the customer experience and driven loyalty. The airline's loyalty program had a strong quarter, with total loyalty revenues up over 9% and redemption revenue up 15% year-over-year.

Operational Performance and Cost Management

United's operational performance was strong, with the lowest rate of cancellations for any third quarter in company history. The company's customer NPS score was up nearly 7% this summer versus summer 2024. United is focused on margin expansion, with plans to adjust its summer capacity plan in 2026 to prioritize higher-margin flights. The company expects to generate over $3 billion in free cash flow this year and targets double-digit pretax margins in the long term.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 9.83 and an EV/EBITDA of 8.07, United Airlines' valuation appears reasonable. The company's ROE is 24.87%, indicating strong profitability. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 7.7%. United's long-term framework for CASM-ex growth is 2-3% annually, driven by 3-4% annual inflation, 1-point annual tailwind from gauge growth, and 1 point per year of efficiency improvements. The company's focus on brand-loyal customers, loyalty program enhancements, and premium product growth is expected to drive revenue improvements and make it difficult for other airlines to gain market share.

3. NewsRoom

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United Airlines (UAL) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why

Dec -04

Source:

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2025's Takeoffs & Touchdowns for Airline Stocks, Outlook for 2026

Dec -04

Source: youtube.com

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Citi Initiates Airline Stocks As A Buy, But Says Sell This One

Dec -04

Source: investors.com

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Bilt and United Airlines Expand Collaboration, Unlocking 2X Total Miles on Rent Payments for MileagePlus Cardmembers

Dec -04

Source: businesswire.com

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Sean Duffy Says DOT Working To Deliver Revamped Air Traffic Control System, Reiterates Dressing Up For Travel — Gavin Newsom Responds

Dec -03

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

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Airport Traffic Hits US Record Sunday After Thanksgiving: Will Airline Stocks Take Flight Into 2026?

Dec -02

Source: benzinga.com

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Airport Traffic Hits US Record Sunday After Thanksgiving: Will Airline Stocks Take Flight Into 2026?

Dec -02

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

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As Boeing Rival Airbus Faces Fresh Issue With Fuselage, Here Are Airlines With Largest A320 Fleets In US

Dec -02

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.48%)

6. Segments

Passenger

Expected Growth: 4.5%

United Airlines' 4.5% passenger growth is driven by increasing demand for air travel, particularly in the leisure segment, as well as the airline's strategic efforts to expand its route network, improve customer experience, and invest in digital transformation, resulting in higher load factors and yields.

Other

Expected Growth: 3.5%

United Airlines' 'Other' segment, with 3.5% growth, is driven by increased demand for its loyalty program, MileagePlus, and growth in its cargo business. Additionally, the company's investments in digital transformation and customer experience enhancements are contributing to revenue growth in this segment.

Cargo

Expected Growth: 6.0%

United Airlines' 6.0% cargo growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as a rise in pharmaceutical and perishable shipments. Additionally, the airline's investments in digitalization and infrastructure have improved operational efficiency, allowing for faster and more reliable cargo handling.

7. Detailed Products

Passenger Air Travel

United Airlines offers scheduled and charter air transportation services to passengers across the globe.

Cargo Services

United Airlines provides air cargo transportation services for a wide range of goods, including perishables, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce packages.

United Express

United Express is a regional airline service that operates flights on behalf of United Airlines, offering connections to smaller cities and towns.

United Premium Services

United Airlines offers premium services, including Polaris business class, Premium Plus, and Economy Plus, which provide enhanced amenities and comfort.

United Loyalty Program

United Airlines' loyalty program, MileagePlus, rewards frequent flyers with miles that can be redeemed for flights, upgrades, and other travel perks.

Airport Services

United Airlines provides airport services, including check-in, baggage handling, and lounge access, to enhance the travel experience.

Travel Insurance

United Airlines offers travel insurance products that provide protection against trip cancellations, interruptions, and medical emergencies.

8. United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

United Airlines faces moderate threat from substitutes such as trains, buses, and carpooling services for short-distance travel. However, for long-distance travel, air travel remains the most convenient option, reducing the threat from substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

United Airlines has a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the airline industry is highly competitive, making it difficult for customers to negotiate prices or services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

United Airlines relies on a few major suppliers for aircraft, fuel, and other essential services. While these suppliers have some bargaining power, the airline's large scale of operations and long-term contracts mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The airline industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and complex operational systems. This makes it difficult for new entrants to join the market, reducing the threat to United Airlines.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The airline industry is highly competitive, with several major players competing for market share. United Airlines faces intense rivalry from other major airlines, such as American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines, which can lead to price wars and reduced profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 76.22%
Debt Cost 6.89%
Equity Weight 23.78%
Equity Cost 11.27%
WACC 7.93%
Leverage 320.46%

11. Quality Control: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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MDU Resources

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.0

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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United Airlines

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.7

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Southwest Airlines

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.3

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Carlisle

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Alaska Air

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 6.5

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 4.7

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American Airlines

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 7.9

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

104.73$

Current Price

104.73$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows