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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

United Airlines Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides air transportation services in North America, Asia, Europe, Africa, the Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America.The company transports people and cargo through its mainline and regional fleets.It also offers catering, ground handling, training, and maintenance services for third parties.


The company was formerly known as United Continental Holdings, Inc.and changed its name to United Airlines Holdings, Inc.in June 2019.


United Airlines Holdings, Inc.was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

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1.b. Last Insights on UAL

Breaking News: United Airlines Holdings Inc has announced changes to its MileagePlus rewards program, effective April 2. Cardholders will earn up to twice as many miles as non-cardholders on United flights and receive at least 10% off award tickets. The airline aims to boost adoption and usage of its co-branded credit and debit cards. MileagePlus members with a United card will also access exclusive Saver Award fares. Analysts at Morgan Stanley recommend a hold, citing the move as a strategic play to increase loyalty and revenue.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. United Airlines' 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance Amidst Challenges

United Airlines reported a strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings, with revenues reaching $15.4 billion, a 4.8% increase year-over-year, driven by premium cabin growth. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $3.10, beating analyst estimates of $2.93. For the full year 2025, EPS was $10.62, a slight increase from 2024, despite a $0.85 headwind from challenges at Newark. The company's cost efficiency efforts were successful, with CASM-ex up only 0.4% in the fourth quarter and full year 2025.

Publication Date: Feb -10

📋 Highlights
  • EPS Growth Despite Challenges:: United achieved $10.62 EPS in 2025 (up from 2024), with 2026 guidance of $12–$14 ($1.42–$3.38 growth YoY).
  • Revenue Expansion:: Q4 2025 revenue hit $15.4B (+4.8% YoY), driven by premium cabin growth, with Q1 2026 expected to show sequential improvement.
  • Customer Investment Payoff:: $1B invested in customer experience led to higher Net Promoter Scores and brand loyalty, supported by CASM-ex up only 0.4% in 2025.
  • Debt Reduction & Credit Improvements:: $1.9B in high-cost debt paid off, reducing total debt cost to 4.7% with 5 credit rating upgrades in 13 months.
  • Cost Efficiency Gains:: $150M annual savings from procurement and tech-driven demand modeling, alongside $8B capex for 100+ aircraft deliveries in 2026.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was marked by a high seat completion factor and ranking #1 in on-time departures and arrivals during the holidays. Toby Enqvist, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, highlighted the team's response to external challenges, delivering a strong operation in 2025. The company's investment in the customer experience has resulted in higher Net Promoter Scores and attracting more brand-loyal customers.

Outlook for 2026

United Airlines expects EPS to be between $12 and $14 in 2026, representing over 20% growth and continued margin expansion. The company plans to take delivery of over 100 aircraft, with capital expenditures expected to be less than $8 billion. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 6.9%. The company's guidance suggests a continued focus on cost management and discipline, with a strong operation driving a real cultural efficiency.

Valuation Metrics

Using the current valuation metrics, United Airlines has a P/E Ratio of 11.33, P/B Ratio of 2.49, and EV/EBITDA of 9.04. The company's ROE is 24.13%, indicating a strong return on equity. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 4.05, suggesting that the company still has some way to go in terms of deleveraging. With a Free Cash Flow Yield of 6.8%, the company is expected to continue generating strong cash flows.

Growth Prospects

The company's growth prospects are driven by its United Next plan, which has been working well, and its focus on premiumization, MileagePlus growth, and enhanced connectivity. Andrew Nocella, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, highlighted the company's commercial focus points for 2026, including new seasonal capacity shaping and enhanced merchandising. The company's domestic capacity growth is expected to slow down, with 2025 being the high watermark for domestic growth.

3. NewsRoom

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What's Going On With United Airlines Stock Friday?

Feb -20

Source: feeds.benzinga.com

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United Airlines' best loyalty perks will soon be reserved for its cardholders. Is the card worth it?

Feb -19

Source: marketwatch.com

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Why United Airlines Stock Is Down Today

Feb -19

Source: gurufocus.com

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United Airlines slashing miles rewards for travelers who don't own its credit card

Feb -19

Source: nypost.com

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UATP Partners with MICA to Bring Credential-less Multi-Tender Payment Solution to Merchants

Feb -19

Source: prnewswire.com

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United Gives MileagePlus Credit Cardholders More Miles, Exclusive Flight Discounts

Feb -19

Source: prnewswire.com

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United Airlines is paring back rewards for travelers who don't have its credit card in MileagePlus overhaul

Feb -19

Source: cnbc.com

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United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) Presents at Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference Transcript

Feb -18

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.48%)

6. Segments

Passenger

Expected Growth: 4.5%

United Airlines' 4.5% passenger growth is driven by increasing demand for air travel, particularly in the leisure segment, as well as the airline's strategic efforts to expand its route network, improve customer experience, and invest in digital transformation, resulting in higher load factors and yields.

Other

Expected Growth: 3.5%

United Airlines' 'Other' segment, with 3.5% growth, is driven by increased demand for its loyalty program, MileagePlus, and growth in its cargo business. Additionally, the company's investments in digital transformation and customer experience enhancements are contributing to revenue growth in this segment.

Cargo

Expected Growth: 6.0%

United Airlines' 6.0% cargo growth is driven by increasing e-commerce demand, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as a rise in pharmaceutical and perishable shipments. Additionally, the airline's investments in digitalization and infrastructure have improved operational efficiency, allowing for faster and more reliable cargo handling.

7. Detailed Products

Passenger Air Travel

United Airlines offers scheduled and charter air transportation services to passengers across the globe.

Cargo Services

United Airlines provides air cargo transportation services for a wide range of goods, including perishables, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce packages.

United Express

United Express is a regional airline service that operates flights on behalf of United Airlines, offering connections to smaller cities and towns.

United Premium Services

United Airlines offers premium services, including Polaris business class, Premium Plus, and Economy Plus, which provide enhanced amenities and comfort.

United Loyalty Program

United Airlines' loyalty program, MileagePlus, rewards frequent flyers with miles that can be redeemed for flights, upgrades, and other travel perks.

Airport Services

United Airlines provides airport services, including check-in, baggage handling, and lounge access, to enhance the travel experience.

Travel Insurance

United Airlines offers travel insurance products that provide protection against trip cancellations, interruptions, and medical emergencies.

8. United Airlines Holdings, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

United Airlines faces moderate threat from substitutes such as trains, buses, and carpooling services for short-distance travel. However, for long-distance travel, air travel remains the most convenient option, reducing the threat from substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

United Airlines has a large customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the airline industry is highly competitive, making it difficult for customers to negotiate prices or services.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

United Airlines relies on a few major suppliers for aircraft, fuel, and other essential services. While these suppliers have some bargaining power, the airline's large scale of operations and long-term contracts mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

The airline industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and complex operational systems. This makes it difficult for new entrants to join the market, reducing the threat to United Airlines.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The airline industry is highly competitive, with several major players competing for market share. United Airlines faces intense rivalry from other major airlines, such as American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and Southwest Airlines, which can lead to price wars and reduced profit margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 76.22%
Debt Cost 6.89%
Equity Weight 23.78%
Equity Cost 11.27%
WACC 7.93%
Leverage 320.46%

11. Quality Control: United Airlines Holdings, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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MDU Resources

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 2.1

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.0

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Carlisle

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.8

Growth: 8.0

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 7.0

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United Airlines

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Southwest Airlines

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 5.3

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American Airlines

A-Score: 3.9/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 3.7

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Alaska Air

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

113.03$

Current Price

113.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows