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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States.It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate.The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas.


This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities.The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services.This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units.


The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties.The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on MTN

Vail Resorts' recent performance was driven by strong season pass sales, guest experience investments, and a cost-saving transformation plan. The company's Q3 earnings beat estimates, with a quarterly earnings of $10.54 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10 per share. Additionally, Vail Resorts reported a 3% year-over-year increase in resort reported EBITDA, despite a 3% decline in skier visits. The company also updated its guidance range for resort reported EBITDA to $831 million to $851 million for fiscal 2025. Furthermore, Vail Resorts announced a new "Epic Friend Tickets" program, offering 50% off lift tickets for friends of Epic Pass holders, and increased its dividend yield, supporting its long-term investment case.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vail Resorts' Q1 FY2026 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Vail Resorts, Inc. reported its fiscal first quarter 2026 earnings, with resort net revenue up 4% year over year, driven by improved visitation at Australian resorts due to favorable weather conditions and the introduction of the Epic Australia four-day pass. The actual EPS came out at '-5.2' relative to estimates at '-5.16', a minor miss. Resort reported EBITDA was flat year over year, reflecting benefits from the resource efficiency transformation plan and inflation in year-round overhead costs. The company's guidance for fiscal year 2026 remains unchanged, with a net income range of $201 million to $276 million and Resort reported EBITDA of $842 million to $898 million.

Publication Date: Dec -20

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: Resort net revenue increased 4% YoY, driven by improved visitation in Australian resorts and the Epic Australia four-day pass.
  • EBITDA Stability:: Resort reported EBITDA remained flat YoY, balancing resource efficiency gains against inflation in overhead costs.
  • Pass Sales Momentum:: 2025-2026 pass sales saw 3% revenue growth despite 2% unit decline, with 2.3M guests committed for $1B in revenue and 74% of skier visits secured.
  • Capital Investment:: 2026 capital plans total $234M–$239M, prioritizing guest experience upgrades, tech enhancements, and resource efficiency projects.
  • Strategic Pricing Initiatives:: 30% discount on lift tickets booked 30 days in advance aims to drive early bookings, complementing Epic Pass programs to boost revenue growth.

Pass Sales and Revenue Growth

Pass sales for the upcoming 2025-2026 ski season saw units down 2% and sales dollars up 3%, with an acceleration in pass sales trends from the previous update. The company now has approximately 2.3 million guests committed to its 42 North American, Australian, and European resorts in advance of the 2025-2026 season in non-refundable advanced commitment products, expected to generate $1 billion of revenue. Rob Katz, CEO, mentioned that if not for the weather, they could have raised guidance, highlighting the impact of weather conditions on the company's performance.

Operational Initiatives and Investments

The company is investing in various initiatives, including multiyear investments to elevate guest experience at destination resorts, remote avalanche control systems, and technology to support the guest experience. The company is confident in its ability to drive long-term sustainable growth and consistent value creation. Vail Resorts introduced a new strategy to drive more sales by creating a sense of urgency for customers to buy lift tickets, offering a 30% discount on lift tickets purchased 30 days in advance.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 20.72 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.5, the company's valuation appears reasonable. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.4%. The company's focus on driving long-term revenue and maximizing it, combined with its investments in technology and guest experience, is expected to drive growth. The Dividend Yield of 5.78% and Free Cash Flow Yield of 6.25% are also attractive.

Outlook and Conclusion

The company's fiscal first-quarter revenue benefited from a 30% one-month advance discount on lift tickets, which attracted new customers. With a strong start to the season and growth in pass sales trends post-September, Vail Resorts' CEO, Rob Katz, expressed confidence in the company's guidance for the current fiscal year. The company's initiatives, including the Epic Friends program, are expected to drive additional revenue. With a ROE of 53.03% and a ROIC of 5.19%, the company is generating strong returns on its investments.

3. NewsRoom

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Alps Advisors Inc. Purchases 10,629 Shares of Vail Resorts, Inc. $MTN

Feb -09

Source: defenseworld.net

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Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) Receives Average Recommendation of “Hold” from Brokerages

Jan -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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Vail Resorts' returning CEO is the hope for the stock, says Truist's Patrick Scholes

Jan -16

Source: youtube.com

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Are Early-Season Metrics Signaling Challenges for Vail Resorts?

Jan -16

Source: zacks.com

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Financial Contrast: Carnival (NYSE:CUK) vs. Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN)

Jan -16

Source: defenseworld.net

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Dow Jones Today: Stock Indexes Rise as TSMC Paces Tech Rally; Oil Futures Slump as Trump Lowers Iran Tensions

Jan -15

Source: investopedia.com

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Vail Resorts Reports Certain Ski Season Metrics for the Season-to-Date Period Ended January 4, 2026

Jan -15

Source: prnewswire.com

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Should You Buy Vail Resorts Stock For Cash Flow?

Jan -13

Source: forbes.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.94%)

6. Segments

Mountain

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Vail Resorts' Mountain segment growth is driven by increasing demand for ski resorts, strategic acquisitions, and investments in technology and infrastructure. The 3.0% growth rate is also attributed to effective yield management, strong season pass sales, and a favorable snowfall season. Additionally, the company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through digital transformation and capital expenditures has contributed to the segment's growth.

Lodging

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Vail Resorts' Lodging segment growth is driven by increasing demand for luxury ski resorts, strategic acquisitions, and effective yield management. The company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through investments in amenities and technology also contributes to growth. Additionally, the growing popularity of ski vacations and the increasing appeal of Vail's destinations, such as Whistler Blackcomb and Perisher, support the 2.5% growth rate.

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Vail Resorts' Real Estate segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for luxury mountain resort properties, strategic land acquisitions, and a strong brand reputation. Additionally, the company's focus on mixed-use development and resort revitalization projects contributes to the growth. Furthermore, the segment benefits from the company's ability to leverage its existing resort infrastructure and amenities to attract high-end buyers and renters.

7. Detailed Products

Ski Resort Lift Tickets

Vail Resorts offers lift tickets for access to its ski resorts, including Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, and more.

Ski Lessons

Vail Resorts offers private and group ski lessons for adults and children, taught by certified instructors.

Equipment Rentals

Vail Resorts offers ski and snowboard equipment rentals for adults and children, including skis, boots, and poles.

Lodging and Accommodations

Vail Resorts offers a range of lodging options, from luxury hotels to condominiums and vacation rentals.

Dining and Food Services

Vail Resorts offers a range of dining options, from casual cafes to fine dining restaurants, at its ski resorts.

Summer Activities

Vail Resorts offers summer activities, including mountain biking, hiking, and scenic gondola rides.

Epic Pass

Vail Resorts offers the Epic Pass, a season pass that grants access to multiple ski resorts and perks.

8. Vail Resorts, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vail Resorts, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have alternative options for leisure activities and travel. However, the company's unique ski resorts and experiences provide some differentiation.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vail Resorts, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's loyalty programs and season pass offerings help to retain customers and reduce price sensitivity.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vail Resorts, Inc. has a diverse supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. The company's scale and vertical integration also provide negotiating power in procurement.

Threat Of New Entrants

The ski resort industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants and provides a competitive advantage to established players like Vail Resorts, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The ski resort industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Vail Resorts, Inc. faces intense rivalry from other major ski resort operators, which can lead to pricing pressure and high marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 75.08%
Debt Cost 6.63%
Equity Weight 24.92%
Equity Cost 9.62%
WACC 7.37%
Leverage 301.32%

11. Quality Control: Vail Resorts, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Boyd Gaming

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Growth: 7.2

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Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.0

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Vail Resorts

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Growth: 5.9

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 3.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

141.12$

Current Price

141.12$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows