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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Vail Resorts, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates mountain resorts and urban ski areas in the United States.It operates through three segments: Mountain, Lodging, and Real Estate.The Mountain segment operates 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas.


This segment is also involved in the ancillary activities, including ski school, dining, and retail/rental operations, as well as real estate brokerage activities.The Lodging segment owns and/or manages various luxury hotels and condominiums, and other lodging properties under the RockResorts brand; various condominiums located in proximity to the company's mountain resorts; destination resorts; and golf courses, as well as offers resort ground transportation services.This segment operates owned and managed hotel and condominium units.


The Real Estate segment owns, develops, and sells real estate properties.The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in Broomfield, Colorado.

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1.b. Last Insights on MTN

Vail Resorts' recent performance was driven by strong season pass sales, guest experience investments, and a cost-saving transformation plan. The company's Q3 earnings beat estimates, with a quarterly earnings of $10.54 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10 per share. Additionally, Vail Resorts reported a 3% year-over-year increase in resort reported EBITDA, despite a 3% decline in skier visits. The company also updated its guidance range for resort reported EBITDA to $831 million to $851 million for fiscal 2025. Furthermore, Vail Resorts announced a new "Epic Friend Tickets" program, offering 50% off lift tickets for friends of Epic Pass holders, and increased its dividend yield, supporting its long-term investment case.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Vail Resorts' Fiscal 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Bag

Vail Resorts reported a resort reported EBITDA of $844 million for fiscal year 2025, a 2% increase year-over-year, despite a 3% decline in skier visits. The company's actual EPS came out at '-5.08', missing estimates at '-4.75'. The revenue growth was largely driven by price increases and ancillary revenue. With a strong balance sheet, Vail Resorts maintains $1.4 billion in liquidity and 3.2x net debt to trailing 12-month total reported EBITDA.

Publication Date: Oct -02

📋 Highlights
  • EBITDA Growth Despite Declining Visits: Vail Resorts reported $844M in 2025 resort EBITDA (+2% YoY) despite a 3% drop in skier visits.
  • 2026 EBITDA Guidance: Forecasted EBITDA of $842M–$898M, driven by price hikes, ancillary revenue, and $100M+ annualized cost savings from the Resource Efficiency Plan.
  • Season Pass Decline: Season pass unit sales fell 3% YoY, but December growth rates remain stable, with initiatives like Epic Friend Tickets targeting lift ticket revenue.
  • Capital Expenditures: $198M–$203M allocated for 2025, including $46M for European resorts and lift upgrades at Park City Mountain.
  • Liquidity and Debt Metrics: Maintains $1.4B liquidity and a 3.2x net debt/EBITDA ratio, supporting strategic acquisitions and $200M shareholder returns via buybacks.

Guidance for Fiscal 2026

For fiscal year 2026, Vail Resorts expects net income attributable to the company to be between $201 million and $276 million, and resort reported EBITDA to be between $842 million and $898 million. This growth will be driven by price increases, ancillary revenue, and efficiencies from the Resource Efficiency Transformation Plan, partially offset by lower pass unit sales and cost inflation. The company's guidance reflects a broad-based trend of market stability rather than strong growth.

Operational Highlights

Vail Resorts is investing approximately $198 million to $203 million in core capital projects for calendar year 2025, including $46 million for growth capital at its European resorts. The company is also investing in technology enhancements for the My Epic app, including new in-app commerce functionality, payment platform integrations, and expanded ski and ride school technology. These investments are expected to drive growth and improve the guest experience.

Valuation Metrics

With a 'P/E Ratio' of 20.28, 'P/B Ratio' of 13.37, 'P/S Ratio' of 1.95, 'EV/EBITDA' of 11.84, 'Dividend Yield (%)' of 5.71, and 'Free Cash Flow Yield (%)' of 5.54, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth and stability for Vail Resorts. The 'Net Debt / EBITDA' ratio of 4.05 and 'ROIC (%)' of 8.74 indicate a relatively healthy balance sheet and return on investment.

Outlook

Vail Resorts is focusing on increasing skier visits by making skiing more accessible and attractive to a wider range of people. This involves a multi-pronged approach, including strategic pricing adjustments, targeted marketing campaigns, and enhancing the overall guest experience through technology. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 1.7%, indicating a relatively stable outlook for the company.

3. NewsRoom

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Unlocking Q1 Potential of Vail Resorts (MTN): Exploring Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics

Dec -05

Source: zacks.com

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Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) Given Consensus Recommendation of “Hold” by Analysts

Dec -01

Source: defenseworld.net

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Vail Resorts Appoints Celeste Burgoyne as Chief Revenue Officer

Nov -21

Source: prnewswire.com

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Vail Resorts Announces Fiscal 2026 First Quarter Earnings Release Date

Nov -19

Source: prnewswire.com

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Epic Passes Go Off Sale December 4; Lock in Your Magical Mountain Holiday Now

Nov -17

Source: prnewswire.com

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Vail Resort's Turnaround Play: Is the Stock Worth Buying?

Nov -13

Source: fool.com

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NCLH vs. MTN: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?

Nov -05

Source: zacks.com

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Friendsgiving All Season: Buy an Epic Pass Now and Your Friends Will Be Thankful with New Epic Friend Tickets

Oct -27

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.94%)

6. Segments

Mountain

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Vail Resorts' Mountain segment growth is driven by increasing demand for ski resorts, strategic acquisitions, and investments in technology and infrastructure. The 3.0% growth rate is also attributed to effective yield management, strong season pass sales, and a favorable snowfall season. Additionally, the company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through digital transformation and capital expenditures has contributed to the segment's growth.

Lodging

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Vail Resorts' Lodging segment growth is driven by increasing demand for luxury ski resorts, strategic acquisitions, and effective yield management. The company's focus on enhancing the guest experience through investments in amenities and technology also contributes to growth. Additionally, the growing popularity of ski vacations and the increasing appeal of Vail's destinations, such as Whistler Blackcomb and Perisher, support the 2.5% growth rate.

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 2.8%

Vail Resorts' Real Estate segment growth of 2.8% is driven by increasing demand for luxury mountain resort properties, strategic land acquisitions, and a strong brand reputation. Additionally, the company's focus on mixed-use development and resort revitalization projects contributes to the growth. Furthermore, the segment benefits from the company's ability to leverage its existing resort infrastructure and amenities to attract high-end buyers and renters.

7. Detailed Products

Ski Resort Lift Tickets

Vail Resorts offers lift tickets for access to its ski resorts, including Vail, Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, and more.

Ski Lessons

Vail Resorts offers private and group ski lessons for adults and children, taught by certified instructors.

Equipment Rentals

Vail Resorts offers ski and snowboard equipment rentals for adults and children, including skis, boots, and poles.

Lodging and Accommodations

Vail Resorts offers a range of lodging options, from luxury hotels to condominiums and vacation rentals.

Dining and Food Services

Vail Resorts offers a range of dining options, from casual cafes to fine dining restaurants, at its ski resorts.

Summer Activities

Vail Resorts offers summer activities, including mountain biking, hiking, and scenic gondola rides.

Epic Pass

Vail Resorts offers the Epic Pass, a season pass that grants access to multiple ski resorts and perks.

8. Vail Resorts, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Vail Resorts, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have alternative options for leisure activities and travel. However, the company's unique ski resorts and experiences provide some differentiation.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Vail Resorts, Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's loyalty programs and season pass offerings help to retain customers and reduce price sensitivity.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Vail Resorts, Inc. has a diverse supplier base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers. The company's scale and vertical integration also provide negotiating power in procurement.

Threat Of New Entrants

The ski resort industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This limits the threat of new entrants and provides a competitive advantage to established players like Vail Resorts, Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The ski resort industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Vail Resorts, Inc. faces intense rivalry from other major ski resort operators, which can lead to pricing pressure and high marketing expenses.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 75.08%
Debt Cost 6.63%
Equity Weight 24.92%
Equity Cost 9.62%
WACC 7.37%
Leverage 301.32%

11. Quality Control: Vail Resorts, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

144.36$

Current Price

144.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows