Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Nutrien Ltd.provides crop inputs and services.It offers potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and sulfate products; and financial solutions.

The company also distributes crop nutrients, crop protection products, seeds, and merchandise products through approximately 2,000 retail locations in the United States, Canada, South America, and Australia.In addition, it provides services directly to growers through a network of farm centers in North America, South America, and Australia.The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Saskatoon, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on NTR

Nutrien Ltd.'s recent performance was driven by strong fertilizer demand, cost-cutting initiatives, and strategic acquisitions. The company's shares have seen a significant price rise, with a 23.7% increase in three months, as investors capitalize on its efforts to expand its footprint and reduce costs. Additionally, the company's quarterly dividend of US$0.545 per share, announced on May 7, 2025, is expected to provide a stable return to shareholders.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	97.43
Change Percentage	-0.87%
Open	98.69
Previous Close	98.29
Market Cap ( Millions)	47340
Volume	920183
Year High	99.94
Year Low	65.35
M A 50	90.44
M A 200	83.23

FCF Yield	5.72%
Dividend Yield	3.06%
ROE	9.13%
Debt / Equity	51.16%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	204.66%
Price To Book	1.36
Price Earnings Ratio	15.15
Price To FCF	17.49
Price To sales	1.29
EV / EBITDA	7.85

2. Nutrien's 2025 Earnings: Strong Execution and Growth Aspirations

Nutrien's 2025 results reflect strong execution of its 3-year plan, with adjusted EBITDA of $6.05 billion, up 13% from the prior year. The company's EPS came out at $1.13, slightly below estimates of $1.24. The company achieved record fertilizer sales volumes of 27.5 million tonnes and raised its potash sales volume guidance twice during the year. Potash controllable cash cost averaged $58 per tonne, below the $60 per tonne goal. With a P/E Ratio of 15.15, the market seems to have priced in a certain level of growth, but the company's ability to deliver on its targets could lead to further upside.

Publication Date: Feb -22

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    EBITDA Growth::
                                                Adjusted EBITDA surged to $6.05 billion in 2025, a 13% increase from the prior year.
Debt Reduction & Shareholder Returns::
                                                Nutrien reduced short-term debt by over $600 million and increased cash returned to shareholders by 30% in 2025.
Cost Efficiency::
                                                Potash controllable cash cost averaged $58 per tonne in 2025, undershooting the $60 target.
2026 Potash Demand::
                                                Potash demand is projected to grow for the fourth consecutive year, with sales volumes guided to 14.1–14.8 million tonnes.
Capital Allocation::
                                                The company authorized $50 million/month stock buybacks (up to 5% of shares) and maintained $2 billion–$2.1 billion in 2026 CapEx.

                                

Operational Highlights

In 2025, Nutrien generated $900 million in gross proceeds from divestitures and utilized the increased free cash flow and proceeds to reduce short-term debt by over $600 million and deliver a 30% increase in cash returned to shareholders. The company's retail business saw a decline in seed sales, but it expects some of this to reverse in 2026 due to weather-related factors. The company is conducting a strategic review of its phosphate business, which could result in a range of outcomes, including revised operations or a sale.

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Nutrien expects constructive fundamentals, with potash demand projected to grow for the fourth consecutive year, supported by strong relative affordability and low channel inventories. The company anticipates potash sales volumes of 14.1-14.8 million tonnes and controllable cash cost per tonne at or below $60. Nitrogen sales volumes guidance is 9.2-9.7 million tonnes, assuming no production from Trinidad and New Madrid in 2026. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 0.5%, a relatively modest pace.

Valuation and Dividend

With a Dividend Yield of 3.06% and a Free Cash Flow Yield of 5.72%, Nutrien offers an attractive return profile. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio stands at 2.05, indicating a manageable debt burden. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 7.85 suggests that the company's valuation is reasonable compared to its earnings. The company's ROIC of 6.32% and ROE of 9.13% indicate a decent return on capital and equity, respectively.

Capital Allocation

Nutrien has renewed its NCIB with a 5% authorization and plans to continue buying back stock at a rate of about $50 million a month. The company prioritizes a stable and growing dividend and has a strong balance sheet, with $2 billion to $2.1 billion in total CapEx and $1 billion in dividend expense. The company's capital allocation strategy seems to be focused on returning value to shareholders while investing in its business.

3. NewsRoom

A Look At Nutrien’s (TSX:NTR) Valuation After Strong Results Dividend Increase And Ongoing Buybacks

07:09

Source:

Nutrien Ltd (NTR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales and Strategic Advancements

Feb -21

Source:

Nutrien Announces Attendance at the BMO and BofA Investor Conferences

Feb -20

Source:

Nutrien (NTR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -19

Source:

ETFs in Spotlight as Trump Moves to Mobilize Defense Production Act

Feb -19

Source:

Nutrien Ltd. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

Feb -19

Source:

Nutrien's Earnings Miss Estimates in Q4, Revenues Up Y/Y

Feb -19

Source:

Nutrien (NTR) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Feb -19

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.78%)

6. Segments

Retail

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Nutrien Ltd.'s Retail segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing demand for crop inputs and services, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on digital agriculture and sustainability initiatives has enhanced its offerings, attracting more customers and driving revenue growth.

Nitrogen

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Nitrogen segment growth of 4.65% driven by increasing global demand for ammonia and urea, supported by rising crop prices, favorable weather conditions, and Nutrien's strategic expansion into high-growth markets, such as Brazil and India, as well as its cost-competitive production capabilities.

Potash

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Nutrien's Potash segment growth of 4.65% is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in Latin America and Asia, coupled with the company's cost reduction initiatives and strategic pricing. Additionally, Nutrien's strong distribution network and high-quality potash products contribute to its market share growth.

Phosphate

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Nutrien Ltd.'s phosphate segment growth of 4.83% is driven by increasing global demand for fertilizers, particularly in Latin America and Asia, coupled with the company's strategic expansion into high-growth markets. Additionally, Nutrien's focus on operational efficiency and cost savings initiatives has enabled it to maintain a competitive edge in the market.

7. Detailed Products

Potash

A key ingredient in fertilizers, helping to promote healthy plant growth and increase crop yields.

Nitrogen

A vital nutrient for plant growth, used in fertilizers to promote healthy plant development and increase crop yields.

Phosphate

A key nutrient for plant growth, used in fertilizers to promote healthy root development and increase crop yields.

Crop Protection Products

A range of products used to protect crops from pests, diseases, and weeds, ensuring healthy plant growth and maximizing yields.

Seed and Traits

A range of high-performance seeds and traits, designed to improve crop yields and resistance to pests and diseases.

Retail Services

A range of services and products provided to farmers, including crop inputs, agronomic advice, and financial services.

8. Nutrien Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Nutrien Ltd. is medium due to the availability of alternative products and services in the agricultural industry.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Nutrien Ltd. is low due to the company's strong brand reputation and diversified product offerings.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Nutrien Ltd. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few key suppliers for raw materials.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Nutrien Ltd. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the agricultural industry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Nutrien Ltd. is high due to the competitive nature of the agricultural industry, with several established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	33.31%
Debt Cost	8.77%
Equity Weight	66.69%
Equity Cost	8.77%
WACC	8.77%
Leverage	49.95%

11. Quality Control: Nutrien Ltd. passed 4 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

CVR Partners

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 7.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Nutrien

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

CF Industries

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Corteva

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Nucor

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

LyondellBasell

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

9.34%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

8.77%

Nutrien Ltd. - CA67077M1086

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on NTR

1.c. Company Highlights

Higher Yield

Less Volatile

Average Growth

Earnings Miss

Revenues Beats

Earnings Beats

Weak Momentum

Revenues Miss

Higher Growth

Average Quality

Stable Momentum

2. Nutrien's 2025 Earnings: Strong Execution and Growth Aspirations

Operational Highlights

Guidance and Outlook

Valuation and Dividend

Capital Allocation

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.78%)

6. Segments

Retail

Expected Growth: 4.83%

Nitrogen

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Potash

Expected Growth: 4.65%

Phosphate

Expected Growth: 4.83%

7. Detailed Products

Potash

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Crop Protection Products

Seed and Traits

Retail Services

8. Nutrien Ltd.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Nutrien Ltd. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

97.43$

Current Price

97.43$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA