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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Carlsberg A/S produces and sells beer and other beverage products in Denmark.It offers core, and craft and specialty beers; and alcohol-free brews.The company provides its products primarily under the Carlsberg, Tuborg, Feldschlösschen, Baltika, Chongqing, 1664 Blanc, Grimbergen, Ringnes, and Somersby brand names.


Carlsberg A/S also exports its products to approximately 100 countries worldwide.The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.

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1.b. Last Insights on CARL

Carlsberg's recent performance was negatively impacted by a cautious outlook on consumer spending. The brewer warned that the environment in most markets remained challenged, with consumer spending likely to stay downbeat this year. Despite raising the bottom end of its annual profit guidance, the company's half-year profit and volume forecasts were missed. The CEO stated that the consumer environment is not expected to improve over the remainder of the year. This gloomy outlook was cited as a reason for the shares being under pressure.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Carlsberg's Strong FY 2025 Results Driven by Britvic Acquisition

Carlsberg reported a robust financial performance for FY 2025, with total reported revenue growing by 18.8% to DKK 74.7 billion. The operating profit margin expanded by 220 basis points to 17.4%, driven by the consolidation of Britvic. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at DKK 19.5, significantly beating analyst estimates of DKK 6.63. The company's reported effective tax rate was 22.1%, and it proposed a dividend of DKK 29 per share, a 7% increase.

Publication Date: Feb -18

📋 Highlights
  • Britvic Acquisition Impact:: 24 million hectoliters and DKK 15.6 billion revenue contribution, driving 22.7% operating profit growth in 2025.
  • MPMs Adjustment:: Amortization of Britvic’s intangibles reduced gross margin MPM by 60 bps to 45.2%, but operating profit MPM rose 22.7%.
  • Regional Performance:: UK volumes up 7% (Pepsi portfolio gained >2% value share); Asia beer volumes fell 1.5%, but China grew 4% in Q4.
  • Cost Synergies:: Delivered 60-70% of GBP 110 million cost synergies post-2-year Britvic ownership, with 200 bps expected in 2026.
  • Dividend & Leverage:: Dividends increased 7% to DKK 29/share; aim to reduce leverage below 2.5x by 2027 through buybacks and cash returns.

Segmental Performance

The Western Europe segment saw a significant change in profile following the acquisition of Britvic, with soft drinks now accounting for more than 55% of regional volumes. Total reported volumes grew by almost 50%, with operating profit growing by 40%. In the U.K., the Britvic acquisition delivered strong performance, with the Pepsi portfolio gaining more than 1% volume and value market share. In Asia, the company's beer volumes declined by 1.5%, but revenue per hectoliter increased organically by 1.3%.

Operational Highlights

Carlsberg's growth categories and international brands showed encouraging growth, with premium portfolio growth of 5% and soft drinks more than doubling due to the Britvic acquisition. The company's alcohol-free brews grew by 4%, while Beyond Beer volumes declined by 4%. The management is optimistic about the future, expecting an organic operating profit growth of 2% to 6% in 2026, with Britvic synergies providing 200 basis points of support.

Valuation and Outlook

Given the company's strong financial performance and growth prospects, we can assess the valuation metrics to understand what's priced in. The current P/E Ratio is 21.08, and the EV/EBITDA is 11.73. The Dividend Yield is 2.75%, indicating a relatively attractive yield for income investors. With the company's expected growth and improving profitability, the current valuation multiples appear reasonable. As Jacob Aarup-Andersen mentioned, "We firmly believe in our growth algorithm, which delivers 4% to 6% revenue growth and higher EBIT growth." This growth algorithm, combined with the expected synergies from the Britvic acquisition, should support the company's future performance.

Future Plans and Guidance

Carlsberg is exploring options to increase shareholder value, including a potential IPO of its business in India. The company expects to reduce financial leverage to below 2.5x by the end of 2027 and return excess cash to shareholders through share buybacks. With a focus on delivering supply chain efficiencies and mitigating inflation, Carlsberg is well-positioned for growth in 2026.

3. NewsRoom

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Molson Coors Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates, 2026 View Soft

Feb -19

Source: zacks.com

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Is Constellation Brands' Premiumization Strategy Paying Off?

Feb -19

Source:

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Craft brewer Tilray inks licensing agreement for Carlsberg beer in the US

Feb -19

Source:

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Tilray Brands strikes US licensing deal with Carlsberg

Feb -18

Source:

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Tilray Brands and the Carlsberg Group Enter into an Exclusive Multi-Year U.S. Brewing and Commercial Partnership

Feb -18

Source:

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Is Carlsberg (CABGY) Stock Outpacing Its Consumer Staples Peers This Year?

Feb -16

Source:

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AB InBev Q4 Earnings Beat on Business Momentum, Revenues Miss

Feb -12

Source:

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Is It Too Late To Consider Carlsberg (CPSE:CARL B) After Its Recent Share Price Rally?

Feb -05

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.00%)

6. Segments

Beverages

Expected Growth: 5%

Carlsberg A/S's 5% growth in beverages is driven by increasing demand for premiumization, craft beer, and low-to-no-alcohol products. Expansion in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, and strategic partnerships also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability, digitalization, and cost savings initiatives support its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Carlsberg Beer

A premium quality lager beer brewed with a unique yeast, giving it a distinct flavor and aroma.

Tuborg Beer

A crisp, refreshing lager beer with a smooth, easy-drinking taste.

Somersby Cider

A refreshing, fruity cider made from fermented apple juice, available in various flavors.

Kronenbourg Beer

A premium French beer with a rich, full-bodied flavor and a hint of bitterness.

Baltika Beer

A range of Russian beers offering a variety of flavors and styles, from pale lagers to dark stouts.

Wine and Spirits

A selection of wine and spirits, including whiskey, vodka, and rum, from various international brands.

8. Carlsberg A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Carlsberg A/S faces moderate threat from substitutes, as consumers have limited alternatives to beer, but some may opt for wine or spirits.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Carlsberg A/S has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, and the company's strong brand portfolio also limits customer negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Carlsberg A/S has a moderate dependence on suppliers, particularly for raw materials like barley and hops, but the company's scale and global presence help mitigate supplier bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The beer industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and established distribution networks, making it difficult for new entrants to challenge Carlsberg A/S.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The global beer market is highly competitive, with several large players, including AB InBev, Heineken, and Asahi, which increases the intensity of rivalry and competition for Carlsberg A/S.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.73%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 37.27%
Equity Cost 6.74%
WACC 4.99%
Leverage 168.29%

11. Quality Control: Carlsberg A/S passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Imperial Brands

A-Score: 7.5/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Carlsberg

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Heineken

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 6.7

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Heineken

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AB InBev

A-Score: 4.7/10

Value: 5.9

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 4.4

Yield: 1.9

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

1000.0$

Current Price

1000$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows