Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Carlsberg A/S produces and sells beer and other beverage products in Denmark.It offers core, and craft and specialty beers; and alcohol-free brews.The company provides its products primarily under the Carlsberg, Tuborg, Feldschlösschen, Baltika, Chongqing, 1664 Blanc, Grimbergen, Ringnes, and Somersby brand names.


Carlsberg A/S also exports its products to approximately 100 countries worldwide.The company was founded in 1847 and is headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on CARL

Carlsberg's recent performance was negatively impacted by a cautious outlook on consumer spending. The brewer warned that the environment in most markets remained challenged, with consumer spending likely to stay downbeat this year. Despite raising the bottom end of its annual profit guidance, the company's half-year profit and volume forecasts were missed. The CEO stated that the consumer environment is not expected to improve over the remainder of the year. This gloomy outlook was cited as a reason for the shares being under pressure.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Carlsberg Delivers Strong Top-Line and Profit Growth in H1 2025

Carlsberg reported a strong set of results for H1 2025, driven by the consolidation of Britvic. The company delivered solid organic performance in a challenging environment, with good market share development in all three regions and returning to volume growth in Q2 in Western Europe ex San Miguel and in CEEI. Reported volumes were up 16%, revenue grew 18.2%, and reported operating profit increased by 15.1%. Organic volume growth was impacted by the loss of San Miguel in the UK, but adjusting for this, total volumes in Q2 delivered slight growth, and revenue grew by 2.4%. The company saw good growth in premium beer, alcohol-free brews, and soft drinks in Western Europe, with growth rates of 5%, 7%, and mid-single digits, respectively.

Publication Date: Aug -15

📋 Highlights
  • Strong H1 2025 Performance: Reported volumes up 16%, revenue grew 18.2%, and operating profit increased 15.1%, driven by Britvic consolidation.
  • Britvic Integration Progress: Synergy realization on track, with updated full-year operating profit guidance raised to 3–5% (up from 1–5%).
  • Western Europe Growth: 44.6% reported volume growth (2.4% organic), led by 5% premium beer growth and 7% alcohol-free brews growth.
  • Asia Margins Improve: Organic operating profit grew 7.3% despite 2.8% volume decline, aided by supply chain efficiencies boosting margins.
  • CEEI Profit Decline: 9.5% reported volume growth but 3.6% operating profit drop, due to cost pressures and margin compression.

Regional Performance

In Western Europe, reported total volumes grew by 44.6%, with organic volume growth of 2.4% excluding San Miguel. Revenue per hectoliter improved by 1%, supported by a positive mix and price increases. In Asia, total volumes declined by 2.8%, with a slightly lower decline for beer. Revenue per hectoliter increased organically by 1%, and operating profit grew organically by 7.3%. In CEEI, reported volume growth was 9.5%, with organic volume growth being flat. Revenue per hectoliter grew by 3%, and operating profit declined by 3.6%.

Guidance and Outlook

The company narrowed its full-year guidance for organic operating profit growth towards the upper end of the previous guidance range, thanks to the solid performance in the first half and strong performance management. The company is updating its earnings guidance range for 2025, expecting organic growth in operating profit of 3% to 5% compared to its previous guidance of 1% to 5%. CEO Jacob Aarup-Andersen stated, "We are confident in our ability to deliver compounding earnings growth for shareholders."

Valuation

The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 14.51, which is reasonable given the company's strong top-line and profit growth. The dividend yield of 3.59% and free cash flow yield of 6.55% also suggest that the stock is attractively priced. With a ROIC of 11.27% and ROE of 28.93%, the company's profitability and return on capital are strong, which should support the stock's valuation.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

Public companies account for 51% of Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Berhad's (KLSE:CARLSBG) ownership, while individual investors account for 31%

Dec -03

Source:

Card image cap

Alcohol Stocks Take $830 Billion Hit as Drinking Habits Change

Oct -30

Source:

Card image cap

Carlsberg Beer Volumes Fall on Tough Consumer Sentiment

Oct -30

Source:

Card image cap

CARLSBERG ASIA AND GRAB CELEBRATE YEAR TWO OF PARTNERSHIP CHAMPIONING RESPONSIBLE DRINKING IN ASIA

Oct -13

Source:

Card image cap

Carlsberg (CPSE:CARL B): Exploring Value After Recent Share Price Dip

Oct -10

Source:

Card image cap

How Carlsberg's UK Soft Drinks Expansion With PepsiCo Has Changed Its Investment Story (CPSE:CARL B)

Oct -10

Source:

Card image cap

Carlsberg to invest in UK soft-drinks production

Oct -09

Source:

Card image cap

Carlsberg readies UK launch for PepsiCo’s Poppi

Oct -08

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.00%)

6. Segments

Beverages

Expected Growth: 5%

Carlsberg A/S's 5% growth in beverages is driven by increasing demand for premiumization, craft beer, and low-to-no-alcohol products. Expansion in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, and strategic partnerships also contribute to growth. Additionally, the company's focus on sustainability, digitalization, and cost savings initiatives support its growth momentum.

7. Detailed Products

Carlsberg Beer

A premium quality lager beer brewed with a unique yeast, giving it a distinct flavor and aroma.

Tuborg Beer

A crisp, refreshing lager beer with a smooth, easy-drinking taste.

Somersby Cider

A refreshing, fruity cider made from fermented apple juice, available in various flavors.

Kronenbourg Beer

A premium French beer with a rich, full-bodied flavor and a hint of bitterness.

Baltika Beer

A range of Russian beers offering a variety of flavors and styles, from pale lagers to dark stouts.

Wine and Spirits

A selection of wine and spirits, including whiskey, vodka, and rum, from various international brands.

8. Carlsberg A/S's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Carlsberg A/S faces moderate threat from substitutes, as consumers have limited alternatives to beer, but some may opt for wine or spirits.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Carlsberg A/S has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers, and the company's strong brand portfolio also limits customer negotiating power.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Carlsberg A/S has a moderate dependence on suppliers, particularly for raw materials like barley and hops, but the company's scale and global presence help mitigate supplier bargaining power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The beer industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements, regulatory hurdles, and established distribution networks, making it difficult for new entrants to challenge Carlsberg A/S.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The global beer market is highly competitive, with several large players, including AB InBev, Heineken, and Asahi, which increases the intensity of rivalry and competition for Carlsberg A/S.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 62.73%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 37.27%
Equity Cost 6.74%
WACC 4.99%
Leverage 168.29%

11. Quality Control: Carlsberg A/S passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Imperial Brands

A-Score: 7.7/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Coca-Cola Europacific Partners

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Carlsberg

A-Score: 5.3/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Heineken

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 7.1

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Heineken

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 3.8

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
AB InBev

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 6.1

Yield: 0.6

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

815.6$

Current Price

815.6$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows