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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. provides various financial products and services primarily in Italy.It operates through six segments Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking, and Insurance.The company offers lending and deposit products; corporate, investment banking, and public finance services; industrial credit, factoring, and leasing services; asset management solutions; life and non-life insurance products; and bancassurance and pension fund, and fiduciary services.


It also provides consumer credit and E-money; wealth management and private banking services.The company serves individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, non-profit organizations, corporates and financial institutions, public administration, private clients and high net worth individuals, institutional clientele, and other customers.Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is headquartered in Turin, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on ISP

Intesa Sanpaolo's recent performance was driven by strong revenue growth, cost efficiency, and record-high commissions. The bank's upgraded net income guidance for 2025, exceeding €9 billion, and its impressive first-half results, with a 20% annualized Return on Equity, demonstrate its solid financial position. Additionally, its commitment to rebuilding Ukraine and hosting infrastructure-focused conferences in London highlight its growth prospects and strategic initiatives.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Intesa Sanpaolo's 2025 Results and New Business Plan: A Comprehensive Analysis

Intesa Sanpaolo delivered a record net income of EUR 9.3 billion in 2025, driven by significant growth in revenues, despite a drop in Euribor, with record commissions and insurance income. The bank's cost-income ratio improved, and the cost of risk remained low. The earnings per share (EPS) came in at EUR 0.1348, slightly below estimates of EUR 0.1353. Revenues grew substantially, driven by the bank's diversified business model, with a strong contribution from Wealth Management and Protection & Advisory activities.

Publication Date: 08:06

📋 Highlights
  • Record Net Income and Capital Distribution: Achieved EUR 9.3 billion net income in 2025, with EUR 8.8 billion distributed to shareholders and a planned EUR 2.3 billion buyback in July 2025.
  • 2026 Net Income Target: Aims for EUR 10 billion net income by 2026, driven by a 37% cost-income ratio and a sustainable ROE above 20%, supported by EUR 1.6 billion in cost savings.
  • Capital Strength and NPL Reduction: CET1 ratio rose to 13.9%, and NPL stock dropped to EUR 0.8 billion, ensuring a CET1 buffer above 12.5% and zero NPL inflows strategy.
  • International Wealth Management Expansion: EUR 10 billion in tech investments to scale Wealth Management in Germany, France, Spain, targeting EUR 500 billion in real economy contributions and 1 million new Isybank clients.
  • Cost Reduction and Workforce Transition: EUR 200 million absolute cost reduction via EUR 1.6 billion savings (including EUR 570 million in personnel costs) and 12,000 voluntary exits, while hiring 6,000 young employees in Italy.

Financial Performance Highlights

The bank's financial performance was characterized by a strong growth in revenues, with net interest income driven by the loan book and hedging facilities. The bank's net interest margin (NIM) remained stable, and the cost of risk was low. The bank's capital position remained robust, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.9%. The bank distributed EUR 8.8 billion to shareholders and announced a EUR 2.3 billion buyback in July.

New Business Plan: Strategic Pillars

The new business plan focuses on three strategic pillars: cost reduction, conservative revenue growth, and low cost of risk. The plan targets a net income of EUR 10 billion in 2026, driven by revenue growth and low cost of risk. The bank aims to deliver a sustainable return on equity above 20% and a cost-income ratio of 37% by the end of the plan. The plan includes significant growth in customer financial assets, lending, and advisory networks, with a focus on Wealth Management, Protection & Advisory.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Using the bank's current valuation metrics, the Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) ratio stands at 1.59, indicating a relatively attractive valuation. The Dividend Yield is 5.97%, providing a stable source of return for investors. The bank's plan to distribute a cash dividend equal to 75% of net income and add a 20% buyback will further enhance shareholder returns.

Growth Prospects and Risk Management

The bank's growth prospects are driven by its diversified business model, with a focus on Wealth Management and Protection & Advisory activities. The bank's risk management framework remains robust, with a zero NPL strategy and a conservative approach to risk-weighted assets. The bank's CEO, Carlo Messina, emphasized the bank's clear sustainability of cash flow for the future, driven by its strong capital position and diversified business model.

Outlook and Analyst Estimates

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.2%, driven by the bank's diversified business model and growth prospects. The bank's guidance on fee income is conservative, with a CAGR of 3.8% expected. The bank's strong capital position and robust risk management framework provide a solid foundation for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo to Cut Jobs, Boost Payouts Under New Strategy

Feb -02

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Intesa Sanpaolo presents its 2026–2029 Business Plan: scaling a proven model with sustainable profitability and strong capital returns

Feb -02

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Intesa Plans to Cut 6,100 Jobs by 2029 in Savings Push

Feb -02

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BBVA Weighs Garanti Romania Sale As Valuation And Returns Draw Focus

Jan -31

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JPMorgan Is Exploring Crypto Trading for Institutional Clients

Dec -22

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Luiss University opens the 2025–2026 academic year: The future of Europe takes centre stage

Dec -12

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Carlo Messina named “European Banker of the Year”

Nov -20

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State Street (STT): Evaluating Valuation After New Strategic Deals and Data Acquisition Propel Global Growth Strategy

Nov -14

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.60%)

6. Segments

Domestic Commercial Banking

Expected Growth: 1.5%

The growth is slightly below the global average due to the mature nature of the Italian banking market, but it remains stable due to the essential services provided. The bank's ability to maintain a strong customer base supports this growth rate.

IMI Corporate & Investment Banking

Expected Growth: 1.8%

The expected growth is slightly higher than the global average due to the potential for increased demand for corporate financing and investment banking services, driven by economic recovery and corporate expansion plans.

International Banks

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The growth is higher than the global average due to the expansion potential in Central and Eastern European markets, driven by economic growth and increasing demand for banking services.

Private Banking

Expected Growth: 1.7%

The expected growth is slightly above the global average, driven by the increasing wealth of high net worth individuals and their demand for sophisticated wealth management services.

Management Center

Expected Growth: 1.6%

The growth aligns with the global average as the Management Center's role is to support other segments, and its growth is tied to the overall activity level of the Group.

Insurance

Expected Growth: 1.4%

The growth is slightly below the global average due to the competitive nature of the insurance market and regulatory pressures, but remains stable due to the essential nature of insurance products.

Asset Management

Expected Growth: 1.9%

The expected growth is higher than the global average, driven by the potential for increased demand for investment products and asset management services, particularly if market conditions improve.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

Intesa Sanpaolo's retail banking segment offers a range of products and services to individuals, including current accounts, credit cards, personal loans, mortgages, and investment products.

Corporate Banking

The corporate banking segment provides financial services to businesses, including cash management, trade finance, and lending solutions.

Private Banking

Intesa Sanpaolo's private banking segment offers personalized wealth management services to high net worth individuals, including investment advice, portfolio management, and estate planning.

Asset Management

The asset management segment provides investment solutions to institutional and retail clients, including mutual funds, pension funds, and alternative investments.

Insurance

Intesa Sanpaolo's insurance segment offers a range of life and non-life insurance products, including life insurance, health insurance, and property insurance.

Leasing and Factoring

The leasing and factoring segment provides financing solutions to businesses, including leasing, factoring, and invoice discounting.

8. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of technology and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is high due to the increasing trend of fintech companies and digital banking platforms.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the Italian banking industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 67.22%
Debt Cost 10.57%
Equity Weight 32.78%
Equity Cost 10.57%
WACC 10.57%
Leverage 205.03%

11. Quality Control: Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CaixaBank

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 6.9

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.3

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DNB Bank

A-Score: 7.0/10

Value: 5.5

Growth: 5.7

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.0

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Intesa Sanpaolo

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 7.3

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Société Générale

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.3

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BNP Paribas

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 6.7

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Commerzbank

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 3.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.0

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

6.07$

Current Price

6.07$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows