Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. (ISP.MI) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. provides various financial products and services primarily in Italy.It operates through six segments Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Subsidiary Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking, and Insurance.The company offers lending and deposit products; corporate, investment banking, and public finance services; industrial credit, factoring, and leasing services; asset management solutions; life and non-life insurance products; and bancassurance and pension fund, and fiduciary services.

It also provides consumer credit and E-money; wealth management and private banking services.The company serves individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, non-profit organizations, corporates and financial institutions, public administration, private clients and high net worth individuals, institutional clientele, and other customers.Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is headquartered in Turin, Italy.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on ISP

Intesa Sanpaolo's recent performance was driven by strong revenue growth, cost efficiency, and record-high commissions. The bank's upgraded net income guidance for 2025, exceeding €9 billion, and its impressive first-half results, with a 20% annualized Return on Equity, demonstrate its solid financial position. Additionally, its commitment to rebuilding Ukraine and hosting infrastructure-focused conferences in London highlight its growth prospects and strategic initiatives.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	5.61
Change Percentage	-0.09%
Open	5.67
Previous Close	5.62
Market Cap ( Millions)	99056
Volume	34541132
Year High	6.01
Year Low	3.66
M A 50	5.58
M A 200	5.11

FCF Yield	0.00%
Dividend Yield	6.36%
ROE	13.74%
Debt / Equity	212.53%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	632.80%
Price To Book	1.49
Price Earnings Ratio	10.86
Price To FCF	0
Price To sales	2.58
EV / EBITDA	13.14

2. Intesa Sanpaolo's Strong 9-Month Performance: A Closer Look

Intesa Sanpaolo reported a record high net income of EUR 7.6 billion for the first 9 months of 2025, with EUR 2.4 billion in Q3, driven by all-time highs in commissions and insurance income. Earnings per share (EPS) grew 9% to EUR 0.1366, beating analyst estimates of EUR 0.1345. The bank's common equity Tier 1 ratio increased by over 100 basis points, and annualized return on equity reached 20%. The bank's results demonstrate its resilience and well-diversified business model.

Publication Date: Nov -04

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Record Net Income::
                                                EUR 7.6 billion for 9M2025, EUR 2.4 billion in Q3, on track for >EUR 9 billion full-year.
Capital Strength::
                                                Common Equity Tier 1 ratio rose >100 bps; annualized ROE reached 20%.
Shareholder Returns::
                                                EUR 8.3 billion returned, including EUR 3.2 billion interim dividend; additional distribution to be announced.
Technology Investment::
                                                EUR 5 billion allocated to date, supporting efficiency and digital transformation.
Rating Recognition::
                                                2-notch upgrade by Fitch and 1-notch by DBRS; EBA stress test validated resilience.

                                

Revenue Growth and Profitability

The bank's revenues are expected to grow 2.2% next year, according to analyst estimates. The net interest income is expected to rebound in Q4 and increase in 2026, driven by loan repricing. The bank's focus on cost reduction and efficiency is expected to drive profitability, with EUR 5 billion spent on technology so far.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of approximately 1.46 (using 'P/B Ratio'), the bank appears reasonably valued. The dividend yield stands at 6.21%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. The bank is returning EUR 8.3 billion to shareholders, including a EUR 3.2 billion interim dividend.

Business Prospects and Growth Drivers

Loan growth is expected to be around 2-3% in 2026, driven by export-related and new generation sectors. The bank is investing heavily in technology and aims to increase the penetration rate of insurance products further, making insurance a strategic engine for growth. The partnership with BlackRock is also developing well, with plans to launch the European platform in the fourth quarter.

Capital Distribution and Dividend Policy

The bank will reassess its payout ratio in the new business plan, considering other players with higher cash dividend payout ratios. The bank's excess capital is significant, and it is expected to be returned to shareholders, with a new dividend policy to be announced in February, aiming for a minimum payout of 70%.

3. NewsRoom

Carlo Messina named “European Banker of the Year”

Nov -20

Source:

State Street (STT): Evaluating Valuation After New Strategic Deals and Data Acquisition Propel Global Growth Strategy

Nov -14

Source:

A Look at Intesa Sanpaolo (BIT:ISP) Valuation Following Expanded State Street Partnership and Upbeat Earnings Guidance

Nov -12

Source:

How Investors Are Reacting To Intesa Sanpaolo (BIT:ISP) Reaffirming 2025 Target and Expanding Digital Wealth Management

Nov -12

Source:

Italy's Intesa expands digital investment offer in Belgium and Luxembourg

Nov -07

Source:

N-Sun Energy secures €400m for 275MWp solar plants from Intesa Sanpaolo

Nov -07

Source:

Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Oct -31

Source:

Intesa Sanpaolo reports record nine-month profit, confirms FY25 net income well above €9 billion

Oct -31

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.60%)

6. Segments

Domestic Commercial Banking

Expected Growth: 1.5%

The growth is slightly below the global average due to the mature nature of the Italian banking market, but it remains stable due to the essential services provided. The bank's ability to maintain a strong customer base supports this growth rate.

IMI Corporate & Investment Banking

Expected Growth: 1.8%

The expected growth is slightly higher than the global average due to the potential for increased demand for corporate financing and investment banking services, driven by economic recovery and corporate expansion plans.

International Banks

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The growth is higher than the global average due to the expansion potential in Central and Eastern European markets, driven by economic growth and increasing demand for banking services.

Private Banking

Expected Growth: 1.7%

The expected growth is slightly above the global average, driven by the increasing wealth of high net worth individuals and their demand for sophisticated wealth management services.

Management Center

Expected Growth: 1.6%

The growth aligns with the global average as the Management Center's role is to support other segments, and its growth is tied to the overall activity level of the Group.

Insurance

Expected Growth: 1.4%

The growth is slightly below the global average due to the competitive nature of the insurance market and regulatory pressures, but remains stable due to the essential nature of insurance products.

Asset Management

Expected Growth: 1.9%

The expected growth is higher than the global average, driven by the potential for increased demand for investment products and asset management services, particularly if market conditions improve.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

Intesa Sanpaolo's retail banking segment offers a range of products and services to individuals, including current accounts, credit cards, personal loans, mortgages, and investment products.

Corporate Banking

The corporate banking segment provides financial services to businesses, including cash management, trade finance, and lending solutions.

Private Banking

Intesa Sanpaolo's private banking segment offers personalized wealth management services to high net worth individuals, including investment advice, portfolio management, and estate planning.

Asset Management

The asset management segment provides investment solutions to institutional and retail clients, including mutual funds, pension funds, and alternative investments.

Insurance

Intesa Sanpaolo's insurance segment offers a range of life and non-life insurance products, including life insurance, health insurance, and property insurance.

Leasing and Factoring

The leasing and factoring segment provides financing solutions to businesses, including leasing, factoring, and invoice discounting.

8. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of technology and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is high due to the increasing trend of fintech companies and digital banking platforms.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is high due to the presence of multiple competitors in the Italian banking industry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	67.22%
Debt Cost	10.57%
Equity Weight	32.78%
Equity Cost	10.57%
WACC	10.57%
Leverage	205.03%

11. Quality Control: Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. passed 2 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

CaixaBank

A-Score: 7.5/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

DNB Bank

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Intesa Sanpaolo

A-Score: 6.9/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.3

1-Year Total Return ->

BNP Paribas

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 3.9

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Société Générale

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 9.2

Growth: 4.2

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Commerzbank

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

23.16%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

10.57%

Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. - IT0000072618

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ISP

1.c. Company Highlights

Strong Momentum

Higher Yield

Medium Volatility

Earnings Beats

Revenues Miss

Average Growth

Stable Momentum

Fairly Valued

Average Quality

Revenues Beats

Better Quality

Earnings Miss

Lower Quality

2. Intesa Sanpaolo's Strong 9-Month Performance: A Closer Look

Revenue Growth and Profitability

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Business Prospects and Growth Drivers

Capital Distribution and Dividend Policy

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.60%)

6. Segments

Domestic Commercial Banking

Expected Growth: 1.5%

IMI Corporate & Investment Banking

Expected Growth: 1.8%

International Banks

Expected Growth: 2.0%

Private Banking

Expected Growth: 1.7%

Management Center

Expected Growth: 1.6%

Insurance

Expected Growth: 1.4%

Asset Management

Expected Growth: 1.9%

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

Corporate Banking

Private Banking

Asset Management

Insurance

Leasing and Factoring

8. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA