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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Banco BPM S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services to individual, business, and corporate customers in Italy.The company operates through Retail, Corporate, Institutional, Private, Investment Banking, Strategic Partnerships, Leases, and Corporate Centre segments.It offers current accounts; home mortgages; personal loans; credit, debit, and prepaid cards; home, personal, assets, and auto and vehicle insurance; and saving and investment products, as well as online trading services.


The company also provides business financing, corporate leasing, project and real estate financing, payment and collections, trade and export finance, and digital services, as well as investment and transactional banking.As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,508 branches.The company was formerly known as Banco Popolare Societa Cooperativa Scarl and changed its name to Banco BPM Società per Azioni in January 2017.


Banco BPM S.p.A. is headquartered in Verona, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on BAMI

Banco BPM's recent performance was boosted by a significant jump in Q2 profit, driven by fees from its newly acquired asset manager Anima Holding. The company's successful integration of Anima has contributed to its strong financials. Additionally, the failed takeover bid by UniCredit, citing government interference, has allowed Banco BPM to maintain its independence. The company's reaffirmation of its full-year guidance also underscores its confidence in its financial prospects. These factors have positioned Banco BPM for continued growth.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Banco BPM's Strong Financial Performance

Banco BPM reported a net profit of EUR 2.8 billion, exceeding guidance by EUR 130 million. The bank's revenue diversification is notable, with a 50-50 split between interest income and commission. Net interest income (NII) was impacted by the reduction in Euribor, but the bank managed to keep the reduction to 2.2% by taking advantage of lower certificate costs. The bank's EPS came in at 'None' relative to estimates of 0.3294.

Publication Date: Feb -17

📋 Highlights
  • Profit Surpassing Guidance:: Achieved EUR 2.8 billion profit in 2025, EUR 130 million above previous guidance, with net income up 20% year-on-year excluding one-offs.
  • Capital Strength:: Common equity Tier 1 pro forma reached 13.76%, exceeding the 13% threshold, with 408 basis points of capital room for expansion and a dividend of EUR 1 per share.
  • Revenue Diversification:: 51% of total revenues from non-NII (net interest income), driven by 21% growth in net fees/commissions and 60% increase in income from associates.
  • Cost Efficiency:: Cost-income ratio dropped to 46% (down 46% year-on-year), with EUR 1.825 billion staff cost reduction and 4.7% decline in administrative expenses.
  • Risk and Loan Growth:: Non-performing loans reduced, cost of risk at 40 basis points, and EUR 28 billion in new loans (7% YoY), alongside 26% growth in insurance business (27% in Life Insurance).

Revenue Growth and Diversification

The bank's non-NII revenues grew significantly, with a 21% increase in net fees and commissions and a 60% increase in income from associates. The bank's core revenues grew 5% in the last quarter and 2.5% year-on-year, despite a EUR 300 million reduction in NII. The insurance business was a key area of focus, with a 26% growth in insurance business year-on-year, driven by a 27% growth in Life Insurance.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of approximately 1.18, the bank appears reasonably valued. The Dividend Yield stands at 8.87%, indicating an attractive return for investors. The bank's ability to deliver a EUR 1 dividend per share is a positive signal, and its trajectory towards the EUR 2.15 billion net income target is on track.

Capital Position and Risk Profile

The bank's common equity Tier 1 ratio stands at 13.76%, with an organic capital creation of 24 basis points on a pro forma basis. The bank's risk profile has improved significantly, with a massive reduction in non-performing loans and credit risk. The cost of risk was down to 40 basis points, including 5 basis points related to front-loading future derisking.

Guidance and Outlook

Giuseppe Castagna stated that the bank is confident in the pace of new loans and the increase in deposits, which would support the NII. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.0%. The bank's guidance on net financial results expects a conservative outlook, slightly below EUR 50 million, with potential for improvement due to reduced costs and increased revenues.

3. NewsRoom

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How Recent Analyst Revisions Are Reframing The Banco BPM (BIT:BAMI) Investment Story

Feb -12

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Crédit Agricole Q4 profit drops 24% on Banco BPM charge despite record revenues

Feb -04

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Credit Agricole Profit Slides on Banco BPM Stake Consolidation

Feb -04

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CREDIT AGRICOLE SA: Fourth quarter 2025 and full-year 2025 results - DYNAMIC ACTIVITY AND STRONG RESULTS IN 2025

Feb -04

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UniCredit said to explore Delfin’s stake in Monte dei Paschi and Generali

Jan -13

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Crédit Agricole gets ECB clearance to raise Banco BPM stake above 20%

Jan -13

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CREDIT AGRICOLE SA: The European Central Bank has notified its approval to cross the 20% threshold in the share capital of Banco BPM

Jan -12

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3 European Dividend Stocks With Up To 9.5% Yield

Dec -12

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.59%)

6. Segments

Retail

Expected Growth: 3.5%

The 3.5% growth in Retail from Banco BPM S.p.A. is driven by increasing demand for digital banking services, expansion of branch networks, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, investments in customer experience, mobile banking apps, and online platforms have improved customer engagement and retention. Furthermore, the bank's focus on SMEs and consumer lending has contributed to the growth.

Corporate Centre

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Banco BPM S.p.A.'s Corporate Centre growth of 3.8% is driven by effective cost management, improved operational efficiency, and strategic investments in digital transformation. Additionally, the centre's focus on risk management and robust capital allocation have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the centre's ability to leverage synergies from the merger of Banco BPM and Banca Popolare di Milano has also supported its growth momentum.

Institutional

Expected Growth: 3.2%

Institutional segment growth of 3.2% driven by Banco BPM S.p.A.'s strategic expansion into corporate banking, increased market share in Italy, and robust growth in asset management and insurance services, supported by a strong brand reputation and diversified revenue streams.

Investment Banking

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Banco BPM S.p.A.'s 4.2% growth in Investment Banking is driven by increased M&A activity, debt capital markets transactions, and equity issuances. Strong relationships with Italian corporates, a favorable economic environment, and strategic expansion into adjacent businesses also contribute to this growth.

Private

Expected Growth: 3.9%

Banco BPM S.p.A.'s 3.9% private segment growth is driven by increasing demand for wealth management services, expansion of digital banking channels, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's focus on customer-centric approach, cost optimization, and investments in technology have contributed to the growth.

Strategic Partnerships

Expected Growth: 4.1%

Banco BPM S.p.A.'s strategic partnerships drive 4.1% growth, fueled by increased collaboration with fintech companies, expansion into new markets, and enhanced digital offerings. This growth is also attributed to the bank's ability to leverage partnerships to improve operational efficiency, reduce costs, and enhance customer experience.

Finance

Expected Growth: 3.6%

Banco BPM S.p.A.'s 3.6% growth is driven by a strong focus on digital transformation, cost reduction initiatives, and a solid asset quality. The bank's strategic plan aims to improve operational efficiency, enhance customer experience, and expand its market share in Italy. Additionally, a favorable interest rate environment and a growing Italian economy contribute to the bank's growth momentum.

Corporate Center

Expected Growth: 3.8%

The 3.8% growth of Corporate Center at Banco BPM S.p.A. is driven by strategic cost management, efficient capital allocation, and a focus on digital transformation. Additionally, the segment benefits from a strong risk management framework, solid asset quality, and a favorable interest rate environment, enabling the bank to maintain a stable net interest income and support its growth momentum.

Insurance

Expected Growth: 3.4%

Banco BPM S.p.A.'s insurance segment growth of 3.4% is driven by increasing demand for life insurance products, expansion into new regions, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's strong distribution network and digitalization efforts have improved customer reach and experience, contributing to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

Banco BPM offers a wide range of retail banking services, including current accounts, credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages, to individuals and families.

Corporate Banking

Banco BPM provides corporate banking services to businesses, including cash management, trade finance, and lending solutions, to support their growth and development.

Private Banking

Banco BPM offers private banking services to high net worth individuals, including investment management, wealth planning, and tailored financial solutions.

Asset Management

Banco BPM provides asset management services, including mutual funds, pension funds, and institutional mandates, to help clients achieve their investment objectives.

Insurance

Banco BPM offers a range of insurance products, including life insurance, non-life insurance, and pension insurance, to protect clients' assets and financial well-being.

Wealth Management

Banco BPM provides wealth management services, including investment advice, portfolio management, and estate planning, to help clients achieve their financial goals.

8. Banco BPM S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Banco BPM S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Banco BPM S.p.A. is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Banco BPM S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of multiple suppliers of technology and services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Banco BPM S.p.A. is high due to the increasing trend of fintech companies and digital banking platforms.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Banco BPM S.p.A. is high due to the presence of multiple banks and financial institutions in the Italian market.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 60.04%
Debt Cost 8.76%
Equity Weight 39.96%
Equity Cost 8.76%
WACC 8.76%
Leverage 150.23%

11. Quality Control: Banco BPM S.p.A. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
BNP Paribas Bank Polska

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 8.0

Growth: 8.6

Quality: 7.3

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Banco BPM

A-Score: 7.2/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
LLB

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 4.0

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
BCGE

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 5.6

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
PKO Bank Polski

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Berner Kantonalbank

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 5.2

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

13.04$

Current Price

13.04$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows