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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Nexi S.p.A. provides electronic money and payment services to banks, financial and insurance institutions, merchants, businesses, and public administration in Italy.The company offers acquiring services; configuration, activation, and maintenance of POS terminals; fraud prevention; and dispute management services, as well as customer support services.It also provides a range of issuing services, such as issue, supply, and management of private and corporate payment cards; installation and management of ATM's; clearing services; and digital banking services for the management of current accounts and payments.


In addition, the company offers software applications for invoice management and storage, prepaid card reloading, bill payments, and postal payments.Nexi S.p.A. has a strategic agreement with Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. to acquire the PBZ Card's merchant business in the Croatian market.The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Milan, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on NEXI

Nexi S.p.A.'s recent performance has been impacted by market challenges, as highlighted in its Q3 2025 earnings call. Despite steady revenue growth and strategic advancements, the company is navigating pressures that have likely affected its short-term prospects. With a focus on addressing these challenges and outlining future outlooks, Nexi is working to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities. According to a recent assessment, investors are closely watching the company's potential, with changing perceptions about risk or growth influencing its market presence.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Nexi's 9-Month 2025 Earnings: A Mixed Bag with Underlying Strength

Nexi's 9-month 2025 financial results revealed a 2.8% revenue growth, with an underlying growth of 6% year-on-year. The company's EBITDA grew 3.5% in 9 months, with a 35-basis point margin expansion. However, the actual EPS came out at 0.06739, significantly lower than estimates at 0.28. Merchant solutions revenues increased 2.7% in 9 months, with an underlying growth of 5-6%. The company's guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with revenue growth in the low to mid-single-digit range and excess cash generation of over €800 million.

Publication Date: Nov -13

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Growth:: 2.8% overall increase in 9-month 2025, with underlying growth of 6% year-on-year.
  • Merchant Solutions Expansion:: 2.7% revenue growth (-5-6% underlying), driven by double-digit growth in Germany and 500 ISV partners globally.
  • EBITDA & Margin Expansion:: 3.5% EBITDA growth with a 35-basis point margin improvement, supported by cost control and volume growth.
  • Capital Returns & Debt:: €1.1 billion returned to shareholders in 2024-2025; net debt at 2.6x EBITDA, achieving investment-grade status.
  • Future Guidance:: 2025 revenue growth in low to mid-single digits, €800M+ excess cash generation, and margin expansion accelerating in Q4.

Revenue and Margin Performance

The company's revenue growth was impacted by discontinuities, including bank losses and contract price renegotiations, which will peak in Q4 and decrease in 2026. Issuing solutions had a strong quarter with 6.5% growth, while DBS had a lumpier performance. Geographic performance was mixed, with Italy impacted by discontinuities, while Nordics and DACH showed good performance. Management noted that Q4 will see a peak in extraordinary effects, but still expects positive revenue growth.

Operational Highlights and Strategy

Nexi continues to shape its business for future profitable growth, with 50 new ISV partners added since the beginning of the year, totaling 500 across all geographies. The company's strategy focuses on partnerships, multichannel approach in Italy, and growth in Germany, where merchant solutions are growing double-digit. The company has returned €1.1 billion of capital to shareholders in 2024 and 2025 and has become an investment-grade issuer.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/S Ratio of 1.03 and EV/EBITDA of 3.9, Nexi's valuation appears reasonable. The company's Net Debt / EBITDA ratio is 2.6x, indicating a manageable debt burden. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 2.8%, which is in line with the company's historical performance. As Nexi prepares for its Capital Markets Day on March 5, 2026, investors will be looking for updates on the company's longer-term outlook and guidance for 2026.

Growth Initiatives and Emerging Trends

Nexi is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging trends, including Agentic Commerce, which involves AI agents initiating and completing transactions, including payments, without human intervention. The company is investing in this space and preparing to enable merchants to interact with agents, allowing them to accept various transactions and payments. Management sees this as a complex but potentially advantageous topic, allowing the company to take further share away from banks that might struggle to keep up.

3. NewsRoom

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Nexi SpA (NEXXY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Growth Amidst Market Challenges

Nov -05

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Assessing Nexi's (BIT:NEXI) Valuation: Is the Market Overlooking Its Potential?

Sep -24

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Nexi signs financing package for $3.1 billion to cover debt maturities

Mar -11

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Group Financial Results as of March 31st 2024 Approved, Continued Growth and EBITDA Margin Expansion, € 500 Million Share Buy-Back Program Launched

May -09

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Group Financial Results as of December 31st 2023 Approved, Strong Margin Expansion and Excess Cash Generation at € 601 Million, € 500 Million Share Buy-Back Program

Mar -07

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Heard on the Street: Fallen 'Paytech' Star Is Rising Again

Feb -08

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Group Financial Results as of September 30th 2023 Approved Solid Growth Performance in Line With Plan, With Continued EBITDA Margin Expansion

Nov -09

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Group Financial Results as of June 30th 2023, Approved Solid Financial Performance, With Continued EBITDA Margin Expansion

Aug -01

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (10.15%)

6. Segments

Merchant Solutions

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Nexi S.p.A.'s Merchant Solutions growth of 10.27% is driven by increasing adoption of digital payments, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the rise of e-commerce, omnichannel retailing, and the need for secure payment processing solutions contribute to the segment's growth.

Issuing Solutions

Expected Growth: 9.9%

Nexi S.p.A.'s 9.9% growth in Issuing Solutions is driven by increasing adoption of digital payments, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, investments in innovative technologies, such as contactless and mobile payments, have enhanced customer experience, contributing to the segment's growth.

Digital Banking Solutions

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Nexi S.p.A.'s 10.27% growth in Digital Banking Solutions is driven by increasing adoption of online banking, mobile payments, and digital wallets. Additionally, the need for banks to digitize their operations, improve customer experience, and reduce costs are key factors. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift to digital channels, contributing to the segment's growth.

Reconciliation

Expected Growth: 10.27%

Nexi S.p.A.'s 10.27% growth is driven by increasing adoption of digital payments, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on innovation, investment in technology, and cost optimization efforts have contributed to its growth. Furthermore, the growing demand for contactless payments and e-commerce transactions has also boosted Nexi's revenue.

7. Detailed Products

Payment Systems

Nexi's payment systems enable merchants to accept various payment methods, including credit cards, debit cards, and digital wallets.

Digital Payments

Nexi's digital payment solutions allow users to make online transactions, send and receive money, and manage their digital wallets.

Card Services

Nexi's card services provide issuing and acquiring services for credit and debit cards, as well as card processing and management.

Merchant Services

Nexi's merchant services provide payment processing, point-of-sale solutions, and value-added services for merchants.

Digital Banking

Nexi's digital banking solutions enable banks and financial institutions to offer online and mobile banking services to their customers.

Risk Management

Nexi's risk management solutions provide fraud detection, prevention, and mitigation services to protect merchants and financial institutions from fraudulent transactions.

8. Nexi S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Nexi S.p.A. operates in the digital payment industry, where substitutes are limited. However, the rise of fintech companies and digital wallets poses a moderate threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Nexi S.p.A. has a large customer base, but customers have significant bargaining power due to the availability of alternative payment solutions.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Nexi S.p.A. has a diversified supplier base, reducing the bargaining power of individual suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The digital payment industry has moderate barriers to entry, and new entrants may pose a threat to Nexi S.p.A.'s market share.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The digital payment industry is highly competitive, with many established players and new entrants vying for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 42.67%
Debt Cost 3.99%
Equity Weight 57.33%
Equity Cost 8.88%
WACC 6.79%
Leverage 74.42%

11. Quality Control: Nexi S.p.A. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Nexi

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 7.9

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 4.4

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 4.3

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IONOS

A-Score: 4.9/10

Value: 3.5

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Wix

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 9.0

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 1.0

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CyberArk

A-Score: 4.0/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 3.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 3.3

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Cellebrite DI

A-Score: 3.5/10

Value: 2.2

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 5.2

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Worldline

A-Score: 2.6/10

Value: 9.8

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 2.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

3.99$

Current Price

3.99$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows