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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Rithm Capital Corp.provides capital and services to the real estate and financial services sectors in the United States.Its investment portfolio comprises mortgage servicing related assets, residential securities and loans, and consumer loans.


It qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes.The company generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders.The company was formerly known as New Residential Investment Corp.


and changed its name to Rithm Capital Corp.in August 2022.Rithm Capital Corp.


was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

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1.b. Last Insights on RITM

Rithm Capital Corp.'s recent performance was impacted by a challenging macroeconomic environment. Despite robust performance metrics, the company's future re-rating is likely prolonged due to the segment's lumpy performance cadence. The company's Q2 earnings beat estimates, with quarterly earnings of $0.54 per share, but servicing revenues slump looms. Rithm Capital's subsidiary businesses, especially Newrez and Genesis Capital, outperformed this quarter. The company also announced a public offering of 8.75% Series E Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock to raise $190 million.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Rithm Capital's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Rithm Capital delivered a robust financial performance in Q3 2025, with earnings available for distribution (EAD) of $0.54 per diluted share, in line with analyst estimates. The company's return on equity (ROE) stood at 11%, with a strong balance sheet featuring $47 billion in assets. The financial highlights were driven by the company's diverse platform, with a range of products including corporate credit, real estate, and asset-based finance.

Publication Date: Nov -09

📋 Highlights
  • Earnings Performance:: Generated $300M in earnings with 18% return on equity, $2.2B cash and liquidity.
  • Strategic Acquisitions:: Announced $1.2B in deals (Crestline, $18-20B asset manager; Paramount, $7B Class A office REIT).
  • Financial Strength:: $0.54 EPS, 24+ quarters of earnings exceeding dividends, $47B in assets under management.
  • Valuation Upside:: Current valuation implies potential $16-$23/share price range, below peer multiples.
  • Capital Deployment:: $1.3B cash post-acquisitions, prioritizing growth over buybacks; $1.1B financing line to be paid down via third-party capital.

Business Segment Performance

The company's business segments performed well, with Newrez delivering a 20% ROE for the quarter, driven by significant gains in recapture, non-agency originations, and expansion of the client franchise. The asset management business also saw growth, with Sculptor having $37 billion of assets under management (AUM). The recent acquisitions of Crestline and Paramount are expected to further enhance the company's product offerings and growth prospects.

Acquisition Strategy and Growth Prospects

Rithm Capital's acquisition strategy is focused on expanding its product offerings and growing its asset management business. The company has announced two significant acquisitions, Crestline and Paramount, which are expected to drive growth and increase NOI. The company's management is optimistic about the potential for unlocking value, driven by its asset management business and mortgage company.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a current P/E Ratio of 6.74 and a Dividend Yield of 9.07%, Rithm Capital's valuation appears attractive. The company's ROE of 11.08% is also respectable. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 14.0%, which could potentially drive the stock price higher. The company's decision not to increase the dividend payout, but rather to redeploy capital, is expected to be highly accretive to earnings.

Future Outlook

Rithm Capital's management is confident about the company's future prospects, driven by its recent acquisitions and growth initiatives. The company's focus on continued growth, rather than share buybacks, is expected to drive long-term value creation for shareholders. With a strong financial performance and attractive valuation, Rithm Capital is well-positioned for future success.

3. NewsRoom

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Wall Street Analysts Think Rithm (RITM) Could Surge 25.42%: Read This Before Placing a Bet

Dec -03

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Rithm Capital Corp. $RITM Shares Sold by Edgestream Partners L.P.

Dec -03

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Rithm Capital Completes Acquisition of Crestline

Dec -01

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Rithm Capital: Why I'm Buying Into Its Transformation Endgame

Nov -27

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All You Need to Know About Rithm (RITM) Rating Upgrade to Buy

Nov -26

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Rithm Capital: A 9% Yield Selling For Pennies On The Dollar

Nov -26

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KBRA Assigns Preliminary Ratings to New Residential Mortgage Loan Trust 2025-NQM6 (NRMLT 2025-NQM6)

Nov -19

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Allworth Financial LP Sells 25,511 Shares of Rithm Capital Corp. $RITM

Nov -15

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.73%)

6. Segments

Origination and Servicing

Expected Growth: 7.88%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s 7.88% growth in Origination and Servicing is driven by increasing mortgage demand, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's investment in digital platforms and process automation has improved operational efficiency, reducing costs and enhancing customer experience. Furthermore, the company's diversified product offerings and strong risk management practices have enabled it to capitalize on market opportunities while mitigating potential risks.

Investment Portfolio

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s 7.5% investment portfolio growth is driven by a combination of factors, including a strong housing market, increasing demand for mortgage loans, and effective risk management strategies. Additionally, the company's diversified investment portfolio, which includes mortgage-backed securities, whole loans, and other assets, has contributed to its growth. Furthermore, Rithm Capital's ability to leverage its scale and expertise to identify and capitalize on investment opportunities has also been a key driver of its growth.

Mortgage Loans Receivable

Expected Growth: 7.9%

The 7.9% growth in Mortgage Loans Receivable from Rithm Capital Corp. is driven by increasing demand for housing, low interest rates, and government-backed mortgage programs. Additionally, Rithm Capital's expansion into new markets, improved operational efficiency, and strategic partnerships have contributed to the growth.

Asset Management

Expected Growth: 7.5%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s 7.5% growth in Asset Management is driven by increasing demand for diversified investment products, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the company's focus on ESG and sustainable investing, as well as its robust risk management framework, have contributed to its growth momentum.

Corporate Segment

Expected Growth: 4.77%

Rithm Capital Corp.'s Corporate Segment growth of 4.77% is driven by increasing mortgage originations, expansion of its servicing portfolio, and strategic investments in digital platforms. Additionally, the segment benefits from a favorable interest rate environment, growing demand for mortgage products, and the company's ability to effectively manage risk and optimize capital allocation.

7. Detailed Products

Mortgage Servicing

Rithm Capital Corp. provides mortgage servicing solutions to homeowners, offering loan servicing, subservicing, and special servicing.

Originations

Rithm Capital Corp. offers mortgage originations services, providing borrowers with a range of loan options, including conventional, FHA, VA, and USDA loans.

Capital Markets

Rithm Capital Corp. provides capital markets services, including securitization, whole loan trading, and mortgage-backed securities.

Title and Settlement Services

Rithm Capital Corp. offers title and settlement services, providing title insurance, escrow services, and closing solutions.

Valuations

Rithm Capital Corp. provides valuation services, including appraisal management, broker price opinions, and automated valuation models.

8. Rithm Capital Corp.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Rithm Capital Corp. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the threat of substitutes is mitigated by the company's diversified product offerings and strong brand recognition.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Rithm Capital Corp.'s customers have limited bargaining power due to the company's strong market position and lack of dependence on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Rithm Capital Corp. has a moderate level of dependence on its suppliers, but the company's strong relationships and diversified supply chain mitigate the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is high in the industry, driven by low barriers to entry and the attractiveness of the market. However, Rithm Capital Corp.'s strong brand recognition and established market position provide a competitive advantage.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The industry is highly competitive, with many established players competing for market share. Rithm Capital Corp. must continue to innovate and differentiate itself to maintain its market position.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 78.73%
Debt Cost 7.03%
Equity Weight 21.27%
Equity Cost 12.77%
WACC 8.25%
Leverage 370.25%

11. Quality Control: Rithm Capital Corp. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Starwood Property Trust

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Rithm Capital

A-Score: 6.8/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 2.3

Quality: 6.0

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Annaly Capital Management

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 5.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Blackstone Mortgage Trust

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 2.7

Growth: 4.4

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
Arbor Realty Trust

A-Score: 5.9/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 4.6

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Stock-Card
AGNC Investment

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 4.0

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

11.34$

Current Price

11.34$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows