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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in integrated energy and chemicals operations worldwide.The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream.The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as operates a gas-to-liquids plant.


The Downstream segment engages in refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels; transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives.It is also involved in the cash management and debt financing activities; insurance operations; real estate activities; and technology businesses.The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005.


Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on CVX

Chevron Corporation's recent performance was driven by record Q3 oil production, strong financials, and successful Hess integration. The company's EPS beat and robust free cash flow were notable, with a secure 4.34% dividend yield. A buy rating was reiterated due to strong fundamentals, effective integration of Hess acquisition, and anticipated synergies. Additionally, institutional investors, such as CX Institutional and Cerity Partners LLC, have raised their positions in the company. A rating upgrade to Buy was also driven by Chevron's unique first-mover advantage in Venezuela's oil sector.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Chevron's 2025 Earnings: A Year of Execution

Chevron reported fourth-quarter earnings of $3,000,000,000 or $1.52 per share, beating analyst estimates of $1.42 per share. The company's adjusted earnings were driven by record production levels globally, with the US production reaching its highest level in Chevron's history. Cash flow from operations was $10,800,000,000 for the quarter, supporting the company's strong financial performance. Revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 7.6% increase in revenues for the next year.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • Q4 Earnings & Share Repurchases: Chevron reported $2.8B in Q4 earnings ($1.39/share) and repurchased $3B in shares, reflecting strong cash flow generation.
  • Permian Production Milestone: Achieved 1 million barrels of oil equivalent/day in the Permian Basin, reinforcing U.S. production leadership and free cash flow growth.
  • 2025 Production Growth: U.S. production hit a record high, with net oil equivalent growth at the top of guidance (6-8%), excluding Hess acquisition impacts.
  • Future Volume Projections: TCO volume expected to grow 30,000 bbls/day in 2026, with 25% production growth and doubled earnings/cash flow by 2030 from Eastern Mediterranean projects.
  • Cost Efficiency & AI Integration: $1.5B in cost savings secured to date, with $2B+ annualized savings by year-end, driven by operational efficiency and AI-driven supply chain improvements.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was marked by significant milestones, including achieving 1,000,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the Permian and closing the Hess acquisition, creating a premier upstream portfolio. The company's advantaged assets in the Eastern Mediterranean continue to grow, with multiple high-return projects advancing to bring world-class gas to regional markets.

Valuation Metrics

Chevron's valuation metrics indicate a relatively stable position, with a P/E Ratio of 28.62, P/B Ratio of 1.89, and EV/EBITDA of 9.45. The company's Dividend Yield is 3.86%, and its Free Cash Flow Yield is 4.57%. These metrics suggest that Chevron is trading at a premium, but its strong financial performance and growth prospects may justify this valuation.

Growth Prospects

The company expects volume growth to continue in 2026, driven by project ramp-ups, a full year of Hess assets, and continued efficiency in its Shield portfolio. The company's TCO production is expected to grow by 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, delivering near its original plan. Chevron is also exploring opportunities in the petrochemicals sector, including potentially acquiring more of CPChem.

Strategic Focus

Chevron's strategic focus remains on high-grading its portfolio, driving breakevens down, and maintaining a strong balance sheet. The company is committed to returning value to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, with $3,000,000,000 spent on share buybacks in the fourth quarter. As the company continues to execute its strategy, its strong financial performance and growth prospects are likely to drive long-term value creation.

3. NewsRoom

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2 of the Safest Ultra-High-Yield Dividend Stocks to Buy Right Now

01:05

Source: fool.com

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Market Today: Palantir beats, Disney warns; oil slides

Feb -02

Source: gurufocus.com

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President Donald Trump Is Cheering and Potentially Hinting at a Weak U.S. Dollar. 3 Stocks and ETFs to Buy.

Feb -02

Source: fool.com

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Chevron CEO details strategy to shield consumers from soaring AI power costs

Feb -02

Source: foxbusiness.com

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'RECORD $27 BILLION': Chevron CEO spotlights MASSIVE shareholder payout

Feb -02

Source: youtube.com

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Want to Make Over $1,000 of Passive Income in 2026? Consider These 5 High-Yield Energy and Utilities Stocks.

Feb -02

Source: fool.com

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Here Are Monday’s Top Wall Street Analyst Research Calls: Apple, Autodesk, Chevron, Circle Internet, McDonalds, Microsoft, Micron Technology, Spotify, and More

Feb -02

Source: 247wallst.com

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Atlatl Advisers LLC Invests $521,000 in Chevron Corporation $CVX

Feb -02

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.64%)

6. Segments

Downstream - United States

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Chevron's Downstream - United States segment growth is driven by 2.5% increase in refining margins, primarily due to higher demand for transportation fuels, increased utilization of refining capacity, and favorable pricing. Additionally, growth is supported by strong petrochemicals demand and cost optimization efforts, contributing to improved profitability in the segment.

Downstream - International

Expected Growth: 3.1%

Chevron's Downstream International segment growth of 3.1% is driven by increased refining margins, higher volumes from new projects, and favorable market conditions in regions like Asia. Improved operational efficiency and effective supply chain management also contribute to this growth.

Upstream - International

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Chevron's Upstream International segment growth of 4.2 is driven by increased production volumes, higher oil and gas prices, and cost reductions. Improved operational efficiency, favorable foreign exchange rates, and strategic investments in key projects also contribute to this growth, reflecting effective portfolio management and operational execution.

Upstream - United States

Expected Growth: 1.8%

Chevron's Upstream US growth is driven by increased production from shale assets, particularly in the Permian Basin, and development of major projects like Tengiz. Improved operational efficiency and cost management also contribute to the 1.8 growth level, positioning Chevron for continued success in the US energy market.

All Other

Expected Growth: 2.1%

The 2.1% growth in All Other segment of Chevron Corporation is driven by increased marketing and trading activities, higher transportation revenues, and favorable foreign exchange impacts, partially offset by lower gains from asset sales and other miscellaneous factors.

Intersegment Elimination

Expected Growth: 0.0%

Intersegment elimination at Chevron Corporation with 0.0% growth implies that there are no changes in intersegment transactions or eliminations. This stability suggests that the company's business segments are not significantly altering their internal transactions, indicating steady operational performance and minimal changes in segment interactions.

7. Detailed Products

Transportation Fuels

Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and marine fuel for vehicles and aircraft

Lubricants

Engine oils, greases, and other specialty products for industrial and automotive applications

Petrochemicals

Chemicals and plastics used in various industries such as construction, packaging, and electronics

Natural Gas

Exploration, production, and sale of natural gas for power generation, industrial uses, and residential heating

Renewable Energy

Investment in renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and geothermal

Geothermal Energy

Harnessing heat from the earth for electricity generation and heating

Chemicals and Additives

Specialty chemicals and additives for various industries such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing

8. Chevron Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Chevron Corporation operates in the oil and gas industry, where substitutes such as renewable energy sources (solar, wind, hydro) are available but not yet at the same scale or cost-effectiveness. However, the growing concern for climate change and government policies supporting clean energy could increase the threat of substitutes in the long term.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Chevron's customers are primarily large industrial consumers, governments, and retailers. These customers have limited bargaining power due to the large volumes of fuel and energy they require, which Chevron can supply consistently. The switching costs for customers are also relatively high due to the complexity of energy infrastructure.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Chevron relies on a network of suppliers for equipment, services, and raw materials. While some suppliers, particularly those with unique or specialized offerings, may have some bargaining power, Chevron's large scale and market dominance allow it to negotiate effectively. The company also has long-term contracts with many suppliers, which can mitigate supplier power.

Threat Of New Entrants

The oil and gas industry has high barriers to entry due to the significant capital requirements, technological complexity, and regulatory hurdles. New entrants would need to have substantial resources and expertise to compete with established players like Chevron. Additionally, the industry's high operational risks and environmental concerns further deter new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The oil and gas industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing globally. Chevron competes with companies like ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and BP. The competition is intense in terms of pricing, technological innovation, and market share. The industry's slow growth and high fixed costs contribute to the high rivalry among competitors.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 13.88%
Debt Cost 4.31%
Equity Weight 86.12%
Equity Cost 8.33%
WACC 7.77%
Leverage 16.11%

11. Quality Control: Chevron Corporation passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.0

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A-Score: 7.3/10

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Quality: 6.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

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A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 10.0

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ExxonMobil

A-Score: 6.7/10

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Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.7

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Chevron

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.7

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A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.7

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

174.03$

Current Price

174.03$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows