Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Exxon Mobil Corporation explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas in the United States and internationally.It operates through Upstream, Downstream, and Chemical segments.The company is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; manufactures and sells petrochemicals, including olefins, polyolefins, aromatics, and various other petrochemicals; and captures and stores carbon, hydrogen, and biofuels.


As of December 31, 2021, it had approximately 20,528 net operated wells with proved reserves.The company was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Irving, Texas.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on XOM

Exxon Mobil's recent strength is underpinned by its robust Q4 earnings, which surpassed estimates due to record production and strategic advancements. The company's upstream production averaged 4.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day, with unit earnings more than doubling since 2019. Exxon Mobil's low debt load and cost reductions, targeting $20B by 2030, also bolster its resilience. Additionally, the company's commitment to rewarding shareholders through rising dividends and share buybacks, as noted by Seeking Alpha, further enhances its appeal.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Exxon Mobil's Strong Q4 2025 Earnings: A Testament to Operational Excellence

Exxon Mobil Corporation reported a robust financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenues growing significantly due to higher upstream production and advantaged assets. The company's earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.71, slightly beating analyst estimates of $1.7. This strong EPS was supported by a combination of higher production volumes and improved operational efficiency. The upstream production averaged 4.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day, with unit earnings more than double those in 2019 on a constant price basis.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • Guyana Production Surge: Yellowtail project raised Q4 gross production to 875,000 barrels/day, setting new operational benchmarks.
  • Permian Output Record: Achieved 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels/day in Q4 2025, with 40+ stackable technologies driving growth beyond 2030.
  • Shareholder Returns: Delivered 29% annualized shareholder return over five years, with $150 billion in distributions since 2019.
  • Battery Innovation Leap: Advanced anode graphite program enables 30% faster charging, 3% higher capacity, and 4x battery life compared to competitors.
  • Carbon Capture Leadership: Positioned as a market leader in carbon capture, with scalable Proxima Systems improving installation efficiency by 40% versus steel.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was a key driver of its financial results. Exxon Mobil's two most advantaged growth engines, Guyana and the Permian, continued to deliver exceptional results. In Guyana, gross production reached roughly 875,000 barrels per day in Q4, while the Permian delivered a new production record of 1.8 million oil equivalent barrels per day. The company's focus on technology deployment, such as lightweight proppant, is expected to drive further growth, with plans to exceed 2.5 million oil equivalent barrels a day beyond 2030.

Growth Prospects and Valuation

Looking ahead, Exxon Mobil is well-positioned for continued growth, driven by its advantaged assets and technology-led approach. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 6.9% for the next year, driven by increasing production volumes and improving operational efficiency. With a current P/E Ratio of 21.48 and an EV/EBITDA of 9.68, the company's valuation appears reasonable, considering its strong growth prospects and improving profitability. The dividend yield of 2.82% also provides a stable source of return for investors.

Strategic Focus on Technology and Innovation

Exxon Mobil's focus on technology and innovation is a key driver of its competitive advantage. As Darren Woods noted, "Technology deployment continues to be our primary focus, with lightweight proppant deployed in roughly 25% of wells, expected to reach 50% of new wells by the end of this year." The company's commitment to innovation is also evident in its Proxima Systems and advanced battery anode graphite program, which are delivering significant improvements in efficiency and performance.

Conclusion on Financial Health

The company's financial health remains robust, with a strong balance sheet and improving profitability. The return on capital employed (ROCE) and return on equity (ROE) are among the strongest in the sector, at 6.34% and 11.04%, respectively. With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.88, Exxon Mobil is well-positioned to continue investing in its growth opportunities while maintaining a stable dividend payout.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

These Analysts Revise Their Forecasts On Exxon Mobil Following Q4 Results

Feb -02

Source: benzinga.com

Card image cap

ExxonMobil Continues to Prove It's in a League of Its Own

Feb -02

Source: fool.com

Card image cap

Exxon Mobil: Let Us Talk About Venezuela And Guyana

Feb -01

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Production and Strategic Advancements

Jan -30

Source: gurufocus.com

Card image cap

Exxon Mobil Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Production

Jan -30

Source:

Card image cap

Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Jan -30

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

Pre-market in Red

Jan -30

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

Dow Jones Today: Stock Indexes Drop But Are Poised for Monthly Gains; Trump Taps Warsh for Next Fed Chair; Gold, Silver Futures Sink

Jan -30

Source: investopedia.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (3.90%)

6. Segments

Energy Products - Non United States

Expected Growth: 4.2%

The non-US energy products segment is expected to grow slightly above the global average due to increasing demand in emerging markets and the segment's diversified geographical presence, which is expected to offset some of the volatility in global energy markets.

Energy Products - United States

Expected Growth: 3.5%

The US energy products segment is anticipated to grow at a rate below the global average due to mature market conditions and potential regulatory pressures that could impact demand and pricing.

Upstream - Non-United States

Expected Growth: 4.5%

The non-US upstream segment is expected to grow above the global average, driven by ongoing exploration and production projects in various countries, despite geopolitical uncertainties that could impact growth.

Upstream - United States

Expected Growth: 4.0%

The US upstream segment is expected to grow at a rate slightly above the global average, driven by shale production and investments in domestic energy projects, although it is subject to regulatory changes and market volatility.

Chemical Products - Non-United States

Expected Growth: 4.1%

The non-US chemical products segment is anticipated to grow above the global average, driven by increasing demand from emerging markets and the segment's diversified product portfolio.

Chemical Products - United States

Expected Growth: 3.2%

The US chemical products segment is expected to grow below the global average due to mature market conditions, despite a strong domestic industrial base, as the segment faces challenges from global competition and raw material cost fluctuations.

Specialty Products - Non United States

Expected Growth: 3.8%

The non-US specialty products segment is expected to grow near the global average, driven by demand in emerging markets, although it faces competition and potential economic volatility in some regions.

Specialty Products - United States

Expected Growth: 3.0%

The US specialty products segment is anticipated to grow below the global average due to mature market conditions and competitive pressures, despite a loyal customer base.

Intersegment Revenue

Expected Growth: 3.9%

Intersegment revenue is expected to grow in line with the global average, as it is directly related to the activities of other segments and thus mirrors the overall growth trend of the company.

7. Detailed Products

Gasoline

ExxonMobil's gasoline is a refined product used as a fuel for vehicles, providing energy for transportation.

Diesel Fuel

ExxonMobil's diesel fuel is a refined product used as a fuel for vehicles, equipment, and generators, providing energy for transportation and industry.

Jet Fuel

ExxonMobil's jet fuel is a refined product used as a fuel for aircraft, providing energy for air transportation.

Lubricants

ExxonMobil's lubricants are formulated to protect and maintain engines, gearboxes, and other machinery, reducing wear and tear.

Chemicals

ExxonMobil's chemicals are used in the production of plastics, adhesives, and other materials, providing building blocks for various industries.

Natural Gas

ExxonMobil's natural gas is a fossil fuel used for electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

ExxonMobil's LNG is a fossil fuel used for electricity generation, industrial processes, and transportation.

Base Oils

ExxonMobil's base oils are used in the production of lubricants, providing a foundation for formulated products.

8. Exxon Mobil Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Exxon Mobil Corporation has a medium threat of substitutes due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the high cost of switching to these alternatives and the lack of infrastructure to support widespread adoption mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Exxon Mobil Corporation has a low bargaining power of customers due to the lack of negotiating power of individual consumers. The company's large customer base and diversified product offerings also reduce the bargaining power of customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Exxon Mobil Corporation has a medium bargaining power of suppliers due to the availability of alternative suppliers of crude oil and other raw materials. However, the company's large scale of operations and vertical integration mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

Exxon Mobil Corporation has a low threat of new entrants due to the high barriers to entry in the oil and gas industry, including the need for significant capital investment and regulatory approvals.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates in a highly competitive industry with several large players, leading to a high intensity of rivalry. The company must continually innovate and improve its operations to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 16.81%
Debt Cost 5.93%
Equity Weight 83.19%
Equity Cost 8.65%
WACC 8.19%
Leverage 20.20%

11. Quality Control: Exxon Mobil Corporation passed 7 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Suncor Energy

A-Score: 7.5/10

Value: 7.2

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 8.0

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Imperial Oil

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 6.7

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
MPLX

A-Score: 7.3/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
ExxonMobil

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 5.6

Growth: 5.0

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Chevron

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Diamondback Energy

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 7.8

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.5

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

138.36$

Current Price

138.36$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows