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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Dow Inc.provides various materials science solutions for packaging, infrastructure, mobility, and consumer applications in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, India, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.It operates through Packaging & Specialty Plastics, Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure, and Performance Materials & Coatings segments.


The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment provides ethylene, and propylene and aromatics products; and polyethylene, polyolefin elastomers, ethylene vinyl acetate, and ethylene propylene diene monomer rubbers.The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment offers ethylene oxides, propylene oxides, propylene glycol and polyether polyols, aromatic isocyanates and polyurethane systems, coatings, adhesives, sealants, elastomers, and composites.This segment also provides caustic soda, and ethylene dichloride and vinyl chloride monomers; and cellulose ethers, redispersible latex powders, and acrylic emulsions.


The Performance Materials and Coatings segment provides architectural paints and coatings, and industrial coatings that are used in maintenance and protective industries, wood, metal packaging, traffic markings, thermal paper, and leather; performance silicones and specialty materials; and silicone feedstocks and intermediates.It also engages in property and casualty insurance, as well as reinsurance business.Dow Inc.


was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

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1.b. Last Insights on DOW

Dow Inc.'s recent performance has been driven by a combination of factors. The company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report showed a narrower-than-expected loss, with operating EBITDA of $741 million. Despite weak demand and excess capacity in the chemical market, Dow's cost-cutting efforts, including a $1 billion plan, are progressing ahead of schedule. The company's $2 billion AI investment has also triggered a "golden cross" chart pattern, indicating a potential cyclical rebound. Additionally, Dow's strong liquidity and tangible book value stabilization have reduced downside risks.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Dow's Transformative Journey: A Deeper Dive into Q4 2025 Earnings

Dow reported a loss per share of -$0.34, beating analyst estimates of -$0.46. The company's revenue growth is expected to be around 4.0% next year, according to analyst estimates. Despite macroeconomic challenges, Dow demonstrated resilience, with a focus on cost savings and strategic initiatives. The company's EBITDA guidance for Q1 is approximately $750 million, with expected margin expansion and cost savings efforts to offset higher planned spending on turnaround activities.

Publication Date: Feb -02

📋 Highlights
  • Transform to Outperform EBITDA Target:: Aims to deliver at least $2 billion in near-term EBITDA improvement (one-third from new growth, two-thirds from productivity).
  • Cost Savings Program:: Accelerated $1 billion cost-out program, with $500 million+ savings expected in 2026 (one-third from growth, two-thirds from productivity).
  • Path to Zero Project Returns:: Anticipated 8–10% returns post-delay, with $1.1–1.5 billion in one-time costs for restructuring under Transform to Outperform.
  • Cash Flow and Liquidity:: $1 billion cash flow from operations in 2025, $4 billion cash balance, and $14 billion liquidity via credit facilities and divestiture proceeds.

Operational Highlights

Dow's operating segments showed varying performance, with cost savings measures gaining traction across every business in 2025. The company completed the shutdown of the higher-cost upstream propylene oxide unit in Freeport, Texas, and started up the new Poly 7 polyethylene train in the US Gulf Coast. As Karen S. Carter, Chief Operating Officer, highlighted, the industry is still growing above GDP, with November being the highest monthly volume of 2025 and setting a total sales record.

Strategic Initiatives

The Transform to Outperform program aims to deliver at least $2 billion in near-term EBITDA improvement, with one-third from new growth and the remaining two-thirds from productivity improvement. Dow is leveraging automation and AI to lower costs and improve efficiency, modernizing its approach to customer growth through innovation capabilities and deeper customer insights. The Path to Zero project, expected to restart in late 2029, will add a first-quartile cost asset and provide a competitive edge in the low-carbon product market.

Valuation and Financial Flexibility

With a P/E Ratio of -7.54 and an EV/EBITDA of 29.89, Dow's valuation metrics indicate a challenging earnings environment. However, the company maintains near-term financial flexibility through cost savings, reduced capital expenditures, and a 50% dividend reduction. Dow has approximately $14 billion in available liquidity, including a revolving credit facility renewed through 2030. The company's disciplined operating model and commitment to capital efficiency position it to navigate near-term volatility.

Outlook and Growth Prospects

Dow expects integrated polyethylene margins to improve as demand picks up and input costs stabilize. The company is optimistic about the potential for integrated margins to improve in 2026 and beyond. With a focus on execution, discipline, and accelerating the work already begun, Dow is poised to build towards sustained earnings power and a recovery. The company's commitment to streamlining processes and simplifying operations will drive further efficiency and growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Dow Jones & Nasdaq 100: Iran Tensions Cap Gains

03:34

Source: fxempire.com

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NASDAQ Index, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Forecast – US Indices Looking to Continue Recovery

Feb -18

Source: fxempire.com

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NASDAQ Index, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Forecast – US Indices Continue to Grind

Feb -17

Source: fxempire.com

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Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Gain, Nasdaq Drags—ZIM Integrated Shipping, Masimo, Toll Brothers In Focus

Feb -17

Source: benzinga.com

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NASDAQ Index, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Forecast – US Indices Attempt Overnight Recovery Despite Holiday

Feb -16

Source: fxempire.com

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NASDAQ Index, Dow Jones 30 and S&P 500 Forecast – US Indices Continue to Stay in a Range

Feb -13

Source: fxempire.com

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From Crisis to Comeback: How Dow Inc Became 2026's Unlikely Winner

Feb -13

Source: 247wallst.com

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Dow 50,000 Shows This AI-Led Bull Market Has Plenty of Room to Run

Feb -13

Source: 247wallst.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.05%)

6. Segments

Packaging & Specialty Plastics

Expected Growth: 1.2%

The 1.2 growth in Packaging & Specialty Plastics from Dow Inc. is driven by increasing demand for sustainable packaging solutions, expansion in e-commerce, and growth in emerging markets. Additionally, Dow's innovation in specialty plastics, such as its ENLIST technology, is also contributing to the segment's growth.

Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure

Expected Growth: 0.8%

The 0.8 growth in Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure from Dow Inc. is driven by increased demand for sustainable solutions, recovery in industrial production, and pricing actions. Strong performance in Packaging & Specialty Plastics and Infrastructure end-markets also contributed to growth, supported by Dow's diversified portfolio and operational efficiency.

Performance Materials & Coatings

Expected Growth: 1.1%

The 1.1% growth in Performance Materials & Coatings from Dow Inc. is driven by increased demand for sustainable solutions, pricing actions, and benefits from operational efficiencies. Strong performance in Packaging & Specialty Plastics and Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segments also contributed to the growth, offset by some challenges in supply chain and raw material costs.

Corporate

Expected Growth: 0.0%

Dow Inc.'s 0.0% growth is driven by stable demand in packaging and infrastructure sectors, offset by challenges in automotive and industrial applications. The company's diversified portfolio and operational efficiency also contribute to its steady performance, with no significant growth catalysts or headwinds in the current market conditions.

7. Detailed Products

Ethylene

A key building block for the production of plastics, adhesives, and coatings.

Propylene

A versatile chemical used in the production of plastics, fibers, and fuels.

Styrene

A chemical used in the production of plastics, resins, and latex.

Silicones

A family of chemicals used in the production of adhesives, sealants, and coatings.

Polyurethanes

A family of chemicals used in the production of foams, coatings, and adhesives.

Acrylics

A family of chemicals used in the production of paints, coatings, and adhesives.

Chlor-Alkali

A family of chemicals used in the production of chlorine, caustic soda, and other chemicals.

Epoxy

A family of chemicals used in the production of adhesives, coatings, and composites.

8. Dow Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Dow Inc. operates in a industry where substitutes are available, but they are not a significant threat to the company's business. The company's products are specialized and have a high barrier to entry, making it difficult for substitutes to gain traction.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Dow Inc. has a diverse customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. The company's products are also highly specialized, making it difficult for customers to switch to alternative suppliers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Dow Inc. has a moderate level of dependence on its suppliers, particularly for raw materials. However, the company's size and scale of operations give it some bargaining power over its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The chemical industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. This makes it difficult for new entrants to enter the market and compete with established players like Dow Inc.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The chemical industry is highly competitive, with several large players competing for market share. Dow Inc. faces intense competition from rivals such as BASF, DuPont, and LyondellBasell, which can lead to pricing pressure and reduced margins.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 46.92%
Debt Cost 4.51%
Equity Weight 53.08%
Equity Cost 10.41%
WACC 7.64%
Leverage 88.39%

11. Quality Control: Dow Inc. passed 2 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Westlake Chemical Partners

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Nucor

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 6.7

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Martin Marietta Materials

A-Score: 5.1/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 5.8

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 6.5

Volatility: 9.3

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Dow

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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LyondellBasell

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

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Celanese

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 9.4

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 3.2

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

31.58$

Current Price

31.58$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows