Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Mondelez International, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and sells snack food and beverage products in the Latin America, North America, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.It provides biscuits, including cookies, crackers, and salted snacks; chocolates; and gums and candies, as well as various cheese and grocery, and powdered beverage products.The company's snack brand portfolio includes Cadbury, Milka, and Toblerone chocolates; Oreo, belVita, and LU biscuits; Halls candies; Trident gums; and Tang powdered beverages.

It serves supermarket chains, wholesalers, supercenters, club stores, mass merchandisers, distributors, convenience stores, gasoline stations, drug stores, value stores, and other retail food outlets through direct store delivery, company-owned and satellite warehouses, third party distributors, and other facilities, as well as through independent sales offices and agents, and e-commerce channels.The company was formerly known as Kraft Foods Inc.and changed its name to Mondelez International, Inc.

in October 2012.Mondelez International, Inc.was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on MDLZ

Mondelez International's recent performance was negatively driven by escalating cocoa costs, which squeezed profit margins despite strong pricing moves. The company's reliance on international revenue and emerging market growth may not be enough to offset the impact of high cocoa prices on its margins. Additionally, volume declines, although manageable, may continue to be a concern, and the company's diversified snacking portfolio may not be enough to fully mitigate these pressures.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	59.4
Change Percentage	-0.12%
Open	60
Previous Close	59.47
Market Cap ( Millions)	76647
Volume	20595198
Year High	71.15
Year Low	51.2
M A 50	55.73
M A 200	61.98

FCF Yield	4.22%
Dividend Yield	3.27%
ROE	9.43%
Debt / Equity	166.46%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	878.47%
Price To Book	2.96
Price Earnings Ratio	31.24
Price To FCF	23.69
Price To sales	1.99
EV / EBITDA	25.25

2. Mondelez's 2026 Outlook: Navigating Chocolate Market Resilience

Mondelez International reported an actual EPS of $0.68, slightly below estimates of $0.696. The company's revenue performance was in line with expectations, driven by its chocolate business, which showed resilience despite price increases. The gross margin was under pressure due to higher cocoa costs, but the company's pricing strategy and revenue growth management helped mitigate the impact. The EBIT margin was affected by increased investments behind brands, which is expected to drive future growth.

Publication Date: 08:04

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Chocolate Market Resilience:
                                                Resilient despite price hikes, with 2025 strategy focusing on pricing and brand investments.
2026 Cocoa Cost Impact:
                                                Higher pipeline costs than spot prices, driving brand investments as costs stabilize in 2027.
2026 Guidance Range:
                                                Organic sales growth projected at 0%-2%, with emerging markets (high single-digit) offsetting developed market declines.
Q1 2026 Cost Adjustment:
                                                $1B inventory accounting impact, leading to EBIT headwinds with sequential recovery by year-end.
Advertising Spend Increase:
                                                2026 media investments to recover 2025 levels, targeting volume growth via working media strategies.

                                

Guidance and Outlook

For 2026, Mondelez expects organic sales growth to be between 0% and 2%, driven by emerging markets growth in the high single-digit range, while developed markets are expected to decline in the low to mid single-digit range. The company anticipates a neutral to positive balance in chocolate between cost and pricing, with a real profit recovery starting in 2027. The guidance range considers short-term pressure points, including a subdued biscuits category in the US and potential disruption in Europe.

Cocoa Costs and Pricing Strategy

The recent decline in cocoa prices may require flexibility in guidance, depending on competitors' reactions. The company's cocoa pipeline cost for 2026 is determined and higher than the current spot price. Mondelez expects to increase investments behind brands due to better cocoa costs, with a focus on driving volume growth. The company plans to use price pack architecture to address affordability and expand in channels like value, club, and online.

Regional Performance

The company expects AMEA to be a source of volume growth, driven by countries like India, Australia, and China. Latin America is also expected to perform well, while North America will likely see volume declines, albeit at a slower pace. Europe is expected to see volume growth, driven by an easier comp and easing price increases. The company's regional performance will be driven by its ability to navigate local market conditions and consumer preferences.

Valuation and Metrics

Mondelez's current valuation metrics indicate a P/E Ratio of 21.95, P/B Ratio of 2.96, and EV/EBITDA of 17.37. The company's dividend yield is 3.26%, and the free cash flow yield is 2.98%. With analysts estimating revenue growth at 3.4% next year, the company's valuation appears reasonable, considering its ROIC of 6.45% and ROE of 13.44%. The Net Debt / EBITDA ratio of 3.67 indicates a moderate level of leverage.

3. NewsRoom

Mondelez's Q4 Earnings Top Estimates Despite Cocoa Cost Headwinds

15:46

Source: zacks.com

Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

01:10

Source: seekingalpha.com

Compared to Estimates, Mondelez (MDLZ) Q4 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics

00:30

Source: zacks.com

Mondelez (MDLZ) Q4 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Feb -03

Source: zacks.com

Mondelez International Fourth-Quarter Profit Falls, Hurt by High Cocoa Costs

Feb -03

Source: wsj.com

Mondelez forecasts annual revenue, profit below expectations

Feb -03

Source: reuters.com

Mondelēz International Reports Q4 and FY 2025 Results

Feb -03

Source: globenewswire.com

RITZ® Crackers Delivers a Salty Slice of Paradise in Its Big Game Comeback

Feb -03

Source: prnewswire.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.49%)

6. Segments

Europe

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Mondelez International's European operations are expected to grow driven by increasing demand for snacking, expansion in emerging markets, and the company's focus on innovation and cost savings initiatives.

North America

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Mondelez International's North America operations are expected to grow steadily, driven by increasing demand for premium and healthy snack options, as well as the company's strong brand portfolio, including Oreo, Chips Ahoy!, and Trident.

Asia, Middle East & Africa (AMEA)

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Growing middle-class population, increasing demand for convenience and premium products, and strategic expansion into emerging markets drive Mondelez International's growth in Asia, Middle East & Africa.

Latin America

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Mondelez International's Latin America operations are driven by a growing middle class, urbanization, and an increasing demand for convenience and premium products, particularly in Mexico and Argentina.

7. Detailed Products

Chocolate

Mondelez International offers a wide range of chocolate products, including bars, boxes, and seasonal items, under brands such as Cadbury, Milka, and Toblerone.

Biscuits

Mondelez International's biscuit portfolio includes brands such as Oreo, Chips Ahoy!, and Belvita, offering a variety of flavors and textures.

Gum and Candy

Mondelez International's gum and candy products, including Trident, Dentyne, and Halls, provide a range of flavors and textures for consumers.

Beverages

Mondelez International's beverage portfolio includes coffee, tea, and chocolate-flavored drinks, under brands such as Jacobs and Milka.

Snack Bars

Mondelez International's snack bar portfolio includes brands such as Clif Bar and Luna, offering a range of flavors and nutritional benefits.

8. Mondelez International, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Mondelez International, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes due to the presence of alternative snack options, but the company's strong brand portfolio and product diversification mitigate this threat.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Mondelez International, Inc. has a large and diversified customer base, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers. Additionally, the company's strong brand portfolio and product offerings give it an upper hand in negotiations.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Mondelez International, Inc. faces moderate bargaining power from suppliers due to the concentration of suppliers in certain categories, but the company's scale and global presence help to mitigate this threat.

Threat Of New Entrants

Mondelez International, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry, but the company's strong brand portfolio, global presence, and significant investments in research and development create barriers to entry for new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Mondelez International, Inc. operates in a highly competitive industry with many established players, leading to intense rivalry. The company must continuously innovate and invest in marketing and advertising to maintain its market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	41.31%
Debt Cost	3.95%
Equity Weight	58.69%
Equity Cost	6.71%
WACC	5.57%
Leverage	70.40%

11. Quality Control: Mondelez International, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Deb

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Efficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Altria

A-Score: 7.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Kraft Heinz

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 8.9

Growth: 3.8

Quality: 4.3

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Hershey

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 6.4

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Mondelez

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Walmart

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Costco Wholesale

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 2.0

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

1.47%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

5.57%

Mondelez International, Inc. - US6092071058

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on MDLZ

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Better Quality

Fairly Valued

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Average Quality

Expensive

Revenues Miss

Stable Momentum

Average Yield

Earnings Miss

Weak Momentum

2. Mondelez's 2026 Outlook: Navigating Chocolate Market Resilience

Guidance and Outlook

Cocoa Costs and Pricing Strategy

Regional Performance

Valuation and Metrics

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.49%)

6. Segments

Europe

Expected Growth: 4.5%

North America

Expected Growth: 3.5%

Asia, Middle East & Africa (AMEA)

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Latin America

Expected Growth: 6.2%

7. Detailed Products

Chocolate

Biscuits

Gum and Candy

Beverages

Snack Bars

8. Mondelez International, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Mondelez International, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

59.4$

Current Price

59.4$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA