Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America.It engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema advertising and entertainment pre-show seen on movie screens; and sells advertising on its Lobby Entertainment Network, a series of strategically-placed screens located in movie theater lobbies, as well as other forms of advertising and promotions in theatre lobbies.The company is also engaged in the sale of online and mobile advertising through its Noovie Audience Accelerator product, as well as a suite of Noovie digital properties, such as Noovie Shuffle, Noovie Trivia, Name That Movie, and Noovie Arcade to reach entertainment audiences beyond the theater.


It offers its services to third-party theater circuits under long-term network affiliate agreements.The company was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Centennial, Colorado.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on NCMI

National CineMedia's recent performance was negatively impacted by a quarterly loss of $0.11 per share, in line with expectations, but wider than the $0.09 per share loss in the same period last year. The company's Q2 earnings report revealed a revenue miss, with key metrics falling short of Wall Street estimates. Escalating costs and a challenging business environment likely contributed to the dismal quarterly results. Management's tone during the earnings call was cautious, citing uncertainty in the market.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. NCM's Q3 2025 Earnings: Revenue Growth and Improved Ad Demand

NCM delivered a total revenue of $63.4 million in Q3 2025, representing a 2% year-over-year growth, and adjusted OIBDA of $10.2 million, in line with expectations. The company's EPS came in at $0.01697, beating estimates of -$0.03. Revenue growth was driven by an increase in inventory utilization, with national advertising revenue totaling $49.9 million, up 6.6% from the prior year period. The company's quarterly audience was 109 million across its network, down 11% compared to Q3 2024.

Publication Date: Nov -04

📋 Highlights
  • Advertiser Demand Recovery:: Strong rebound in key categories (retail, automotive, wireless, government) drove top-line growth, with 11 films grossing $50M+ domestically, up from 9 in 2024.
  • Revenue Growth:: Total revenue reached $63.4M, a 2% YoY increase, with National Advertising up 6.6% to $49.9M and Platinum revenue hitting record $10.2M (adjusted OIBDA).
  • Programmatic Expansion:: Programmatic ad sales surged 4x YoY, attracting new clients who previously hadn’t advertised in cinema, boosting inventory utilization and digital adoption.
  • Q4 Guidance:: Revenue forecast of $91–98M and adjusted OIBDA of $30–35M, driven by expected 14% attendance growth during the holiday season despite margin pressures from dealer fees.
  • 2026 Outlook:: Optimistic about box office momentum, with improved film slate and advertiser confidence in Programmatic tools, alongside AI-driven cost efficiencies to enhance margins.

Revenue Breakdown and Ad Demand

NCM's revenue growth was driven by strong scatter demand and improved utilization of inventory, as well as increased adoption of its digital buying platforms. Platinum revenue was up 19% compared to the prior year, achieving the highest third quarter Platinum sales in NCM's history. The company's Programmatic business was approximately 4x higher than it was a year ago, with the vast majority of clients being new to cinema advertising. As Tom Lesinski mentioned, "We're literally reaching people who had never been cinema advertisers before."

Guidance and Outlook

For Q4 2025, NCM expects revenue to be between $91 million and $98 million and adjusted OIBDA to be between $30 million and $35 million. The company anticipates a strong holiday box office slate, with advertisers already showing heightened interest in the Thanksgiving to Christmas slate. NCM's momentum from Q3 and Q4 is expected to carry into 2026, with the company confident in its relationships with advertisers and its Programmatic and self-serve offerings.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/S Ratio of 1.76 and an estimated revenue growth of 12.2% for next year, NCM appears to be reasonably valued. The company's Dividend Yield is 2.02%, providing a relatively stable source of return. However, with an EV/EBITDA ratio of 27.65, the company's valuation is somewhat stretched. Analysts will be watching to see if NCM can continue to deliver on its growth prospects and improve its profitability.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

National CineMedia and TransUnion Partner to Bring Cinema into Cross-Channel Attribution

Dec -01

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

Comparing National CineMedia (NASDAQ:NCMI) & LQR House (NASDAQ:YHC)

Nov -30

Source: defenseworld.net

Card image cap

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Oct -31

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

National CineMedia (NCMI) Reports Q3 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Oct -30

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

National CineMedia (NCMI) Reports Break-Even Earnings for Q3

Oct -30

Source: zacks.com

Card image cap

National CineMedia, Inc. Reports Results for Fiscal Third Quarter 2025

Oct -30

Source: businesswire.com

Card image cap

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Aug -06

Source: seekingalpha.com

Card image cap

National CineMedia (NCMI) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

Aug -06

Source: zacks.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.80%)

6. Segments

National Advertising

Expected Growth: 4.83%

National Advertising from National CineMedia, Inc. growth of 4.83% driven by increasing demand for cinema advertising, rise in digital cinema conversions, and growing advertiser interest in targeted, high-impact media. Additionally, strategic partnerships and expanding network of theaters contribute to growth.

Local and Regional Advertising

Expected Growth: 4.65%

National CineMedia's 4.65% growth in Local and Regional Advertising is driven by increasing demand for targeted cinema ads, expansion of digital cinema footprint, and strategic partnerships with local businesses. Additionally, the company's data-driven advertising solutions and innovative formats, such as augmented reality experiences, are attracting new advertisers and increasing revenue.

Management Fee Reimbursement

Expected Growth: 4.83%

The 4.83% growth in Management Fee Reimbursement from National CineMedia, Inc. is driven by increasing demand for cinema advertising, strategic partnerships, and effective cost management. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation and innovative marketing solutions has contributed to the growth.

ESA Advertising Revenue from Beverage Concessionaire Agreements

Expected Growth: 4.83%

The 4.83% growth in ESA Advertising Revenue from Beverage Concessionaire Agreements is driven by increasing demand for in-theater advertising, expansion of National CineMedia's network, and growing consumer spending on beverages at cinemas. Additionally, strategic partnerships and innovative advertising formats contribute to the growth.

7. Detailed Products

Noovie

A pre-roll entertainment and advertising platform that provides engaging content to moviegoers before the main feature film

Cinema Advertising

On-screen advertising solutions that allow brands to reach a large and engaged audience in movie theaters

Fathom Events

A leading distributor of live and pre-recorded events to movie theaters, including concerts, sports, and performing arts

Digital Out-of-Home (DOOH) Advertising

Digital signage and advertising solutions for movie theaters, malls, and other public spaces

Data and Analytics

Audience insights and data analytics solutions that help advertisers and content owners understand their audience

8. National CineMedia, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for National CineMedia, Inc. is medium because while there are alternative forms of advertising, such as online ads, the company's cinema advertising platform provides a unique and engaging experience for advertisers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for National CineMedia, Inc. is low because the company has a diverse range of advertisers and no single customer accounts for a significant portion of its revenue.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for National CineMedia, Inc. is medium because while the company relies on a network of theaters to display its ads, it has a diverse range of suppliers and can negotiate favorable terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for National CineMedia, Inc. is low because the company has a strong brand and a large network of theaters, making it difficult for new entrants to compete.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for National CineMedia, Inc. is high because the company operates in a competitive industry with several established players, and must continually innovate and improve its offerings to stay ahead.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 2.47%
Debt Cost 13.57%
Equity Weight 97.53%
Equity Cost 13.57%
WACC 13.57%
Leverage 2.53%

11. Quality Control: National CineMedia, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Travelzoo

A-Score: 4.5/10

Value: 8.6

Growth: 6.3

Quality: 7.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 2.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
QuinStreet

A-Score: 3.8/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 7.6

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Innovid

A-Score: 3.7/10

Value: 3.2

Growth: 4.7

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 0.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
National CineMedia

A-Score: 3.6/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 2.4

Quality: 4.2

Yield: 5.0

Momentum: 1.5

Volatility: 2.7

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
AdTheorent Holding Company

A-Score: 2.9/10

Value: 4.2

Growth: 2.0

Quality: 4.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 1.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Cardlytics

A-Score: 2.7/10

Value: 8.8

Growth: 3.0

Quality: 3.4

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 1.0

Volatility: 0.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

4.14$

Current Price

4.14$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows