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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Rivian Automotive, Inc.designs, develops, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles and accessories.The company offers five-passenger pickup trucks and sports utility vehicles.


It provides Rivian Commercial Vehicle platform for electric Delivery Van with collaboration with Amazon.com.The company sells its products directly to customers in the consumer and commercial markets.Rivian Automotive, Inc.


was founded in 2009 and is based in San Jose, California.

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1.b. Last Insights on RIVN

Breaking News: Rivian Automotive Inc reported Q4 earnings that exceeded Street estimates, with revenue and earnings beating expectations. The company guided for 2026 deliveries of 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles, a 47% to 59% increase over 2025, driven by the upcoming R2 launch. Revenue rose 8% in 2025, and the midpoint of the 2026 guidance implies 53% year-over-year growth. Some analysts view Rivian as a buy, citing potential for growth with the R2 launch, while noting the EV industry's uncertainty. Rivian's R2, a mass market SUV, is expected to be a catalyst.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Rivian's Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings: A Turning Point

Rivian reported consolidated revenues of $1.3 billion and consolidated gross profit of $120 million in the fourth quarter, with a significant improvement in average sales price and automotive cost of goods sold per unit. The company's actual EPS loss of $-0.54 was better than the estimated loss of $-0.69. The revenue growth is expected to continue, with analysts estimating a 61.7% growth in revenues for the next year. The current valuation metrics indicate a 'P/S Ratio' of 4.02 and an 'EV/EBITDA' of -8.58, suggesting that the market is pricing in significant growth expectations.

Publication Date: Feb -17

📋 Highlights
  • R2 Launch & Market Positioning:: Rivian plans to launch the R2 mass-market vehicle in Q2 2026, targeting the $50,000 price segment with design, performance, and cost advantages.
  • 2025 Financial Performance:: Q4 2025 reported $1.3B revenue and $120M gross profit, with $4,000 per-unit cost reduction driven by operational efficiencies.
  • 2026 Guidance & Capital Inflow:: Anticipates 62,000–67,000 vehicle deliveries and a $2B capital infusion from Volkswagen’s joint venture, offsetting $2.1B–$1.8B adjusted EBITDA losses.
  • Cost & Pricing Improvements:: Achieved $5,500 higher average sales price and $9,500 lower automotive COGS per unit in 2025, with further savings from joint sourcing.
  • Autonomy & Software Growth:: Plans to enable point-to-point autonomous driving by late 2026, with software/services revenue expected to grow 60% YoY and reach 50% of VW joint venture revenue.

Operational Highlights

Rivian achieved significant improvements in its operational efficiency, with a reduction of $4,000 in cost per vehicle in Q4, driven by a mix shift and operational efficiencies. The company is working to ramp up production, with a second shift starting near the end of the year and a third shift in 2027. The R2 vehicle is expected to drive growth and profitability, with deliveries starting in the second quarter of 2026.

Future Plans and Outlook

Rivian expects to deliver between 62,000 and 67,000 total vehicles in 2026, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of between $2.1 billion and $1.8 billion. The company plans to receive an additional $2 billion of capital from its joint venture with Volkswagen Group in 2026. The Volkswagen relationship is progressing, with winter testing on several products and a first launch expected in 2027. Rivian is confident in the demand for R2, citing the lack of choice in the $50,000 price point segment.

Technological Advancements

Rivian is expanding its autonomous driving capabilities, with plans to unlock point-to-point driving later this year. The company will introduce hands-off and eyes-off features, starting on highways, followed by Level 4 applications within geofenced areas. The Gen 3 technology, which includes LiDAR, will be available in early 2027, starting with R2 vehicles. This technology will enhance the company's data flywheel, allowing for more advanced autonomous capabilities.

Financial Position

Rivian ended 2025 with $6.1 billion in cash and expects to receive $2 billion from Volkswagen in 2026. The company expects capital expenditures of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion in 2026. Working capital will be an outflow of cash in 2026, partly due to the buildup of inventory for the R2 launch. The company's financial position is expected to be supported by its joint venture with Volkswagen Group.

3. NewsRoom

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Why Rivian Stock Sank This Week

Feb -21

Source: fool.com

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Rivian Shares Surged on Delivery Forecast. Is It Too Late to Buy the Stock?

Feb -20

Source: fool.com

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Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) Stock Price Down 3.5% on Insider Selling

Feb -20

Source: defenseworld.net

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Can Services 2x Rivian Stock?

Feb -19

Source: forbes.com

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Can Rivian Stock Beat the Market in 2026?​

Feb -19

Source: fool.com

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Is Rivian Stock a Buy in 2026?​

Feb -18

Source: fool.com

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Rivian Stock: The EV Recovery Play to Watch​

Feb -18

Source: fool.com

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Down 15% Already This Year, Is Rivian Stock a Buy?

Feb -18

Source: fool.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (22.18%)

6. Segments

Electric Vehicles

Expected Growth: 22.18%

Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s 22.18% growth in Electric Vehicles is driven by increasing adoption of sustainable energy solutions, government incentives for eco-friendly vehicles, and rising consumer demand for environmentally responsible transportation options. Additionally, Rivian's innovative products, expanding charging infrastructure, and strategic partnerships with major companies contribute to its rapid growth.

7. Detailed Products

R1T

A fully electric pickup truck designed for adventure and utility, featuring a quad-motor system, advanced technology, and a spacious interior.

R1S

A fully electric SUV designed for adventure and family use, featuring a tri-motor system, advanced technology, and a spacious interior.

EDV 700

A fully electric van designed for commercial use, featuring a large cargo capacity, advanced technology, and a durable design.

Rivian Adventure Network

A network of fast-charging stations and adventure-focused amenities designed to support Rivian owners on the go.

Rivian Service and Support

A comprehensive service and support program designed to keep Rivian vehicles running smoothly, featuring remote diagnostics, over-the-air updates, and dedicated customer support.

8. Rivian Automotive, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Rivian Automotive, Inc. faces moderate threat from substitutes, as customers have limited alternatives for electric adventure vehicles. However, the growing popularity of electric vehicles and increasing competition in the market may lead to more substitutes in the future.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Rivian Automotive, Inc. has a low bargaining power of customers, as customers have limited negotiating power due to the company's unique product offerings and limited competition in the electric adventure vehicle market.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Rivian Automotive, Inc. faces moderate bargaining power of suppliers, as the company relies on a few key suppliers for critical components, such as batteries and electric motors. However, the company's growing scale and vertical integration efforts may reduce supplier bargaining power over time.

Threat Of New Entrants

Rivian Automotive, Inc. faces a high threat of new entrants, as the electric vehicle market is attractive and growing, with many new companies entering the market. However, the company's first-mover advantage, unique product offerings, and growing brand recognition may help to mitigate this threat.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Rivian Automotive, Inc. operates in a highly competitive market, with intense rivalry among existing players, including established automakers and new entrants. The company's focus on electric adventure vehicles and its unique product offerings may help to differentiate it from competitors, but the company must continue to innovate and invest in marketing and sales to maintain its competitive position.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 33.08%
Debt Cost 4.47%
Equity Weight 66.92%
Equity Cost 13.47%
WACC 10.49%
Leverage 49.44%

11. Quality Control: Rivian Automotive, Inc. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Life Time Group Holdings

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Value: 3.7

Growth: 7.3

Quality: 5.0

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 5.7

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Carnival

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Rivian Automotive

A-Score: 4.4/10

Value: 7.0

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 2.0

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Quality: 4.5

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A-Score: 3.1/10

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Growth: 7.0

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Envirotech Vehicles

A-Score: 2.8/10

Value: 9.0

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 2.5

Yield: 0.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 0.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

15.27$

Current Price

15.27$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows