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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Simon is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG).Our properties across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales.

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1.b. Last Insights on SPG

Simon Property Group's recent performance is driven by strong leasing momentum, expanding mixed-use assets, and a focus on omnichannel retailing. The company reported Q2 FFO beat, driven by higher revenues and occupancy gains. Management raised guidance and increased dividend by 4.9%, now above pre-COVID levels. A recent $1.5 billion senior notes sale demonstrates access to capital markets. Rating upgrades and analyst re-evaluations reflect a more balanced outlook. With a solid portfolio and growth potential, the company is well-positioned. (Source: SPG's Q2 earnings, Aug 5)

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Simon Property Group's Strong Q4 2025 Earnings Beat Expectations

Simon Property Group reported record real estate funds from operation (FFO) of $4.8 billion, or $12.73 per share, for the full year 2025. For the fourth quarter, real estate FFO was $3.49 per share, a 4.2% growth year over year, while domestic property NOI growth was strong, increasing 4.8% year over year for the quarter and 4.4% for the year. The actual EPS came out at $9.35, significantly beating estimates at $3.47. The company's leasing performance was excellent, with average base minimum rents increasing 4.7% year over year at its malls and premium outlets.

Publication Date: 08:13

📋 Highlights
  • Record Real Estate FFO:: Achieved $4.8 billion or $12.73 per share in 2025, driven by strong leasing and operations.
  • $2 Billion in Acquisitions:: Purchased high-quality retail properties like The Mall in Italy and Phillips Place in Charlotte.
  • Leasing Momentum:: Signed 1,300+ leases totaling 4.4 million sq ft in Q4 2025 and 4,600+ leases for 17 million sq ft annually.
  • 2026 FFO Guidance:: Targets $13–$13.25 per share, with $3.49 per share reported in Q4 2025 (4.2% growth).
  • Occupancy Rates:: Malls/premium outlets at 96.4%, mills at 99.2%, with 4.7% YoY increase in average base minimum rents.

Operational Highlights

The company achieved significant milestones in 2025, including the acquisition of high-quality retail properties such as The Mall in Italy, Brickell City Center in Miami, and Phillips Place in Charlotte. The pipeline of new development and redevelopment opportunities now exceeds $4 billion, with over 1,300 leases signed totaling more than 4.4 million square feet during the quarter. As Brian McDade noted, the leasing pipeline is up about 15% over last year, driven by the new tenant mix and improved cash flow.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 39.92 and an EV/EBITDA of 13.46, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth for Simon Property Group. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.2%. The company's guidance for 2026 expects real estate FFOs of $13 to $13.25 per share, with a midpoint of $13.13. The Dividend Yield stands at 4.47%, indicating an attractive return for income investors.

Outlook and Challenges

The company faces challenges such as tariffs affecting retailers and potential bankruptcies. However, David Simon mentioned that the retailers that don't make it were not highly productive, and the company can replace them with more productive retailers or higher rents, indicating upside in the existing portfolio. The company's focus on redevelopment projects and enhancing its properties is expected to drive higher occupancy and earnings growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Simon Property (SPG) Reports Q4 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say

00:01

Source: zacks.com

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Simon Property (SPG) Q4 FFO and Revenues Surpass Estimates

Feb -02

Source: zacks.com

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Market Today: Palantir beats, Disney warns; oil slides

Feb -02

Source: gurufocus.com

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Simon® Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

Feb -02

Source: prnewswire.com

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First Look: Gold Slumps, Disney (DIS) Beats, Oracle (ORCL) Plans $50B

Feb -02

Source: gurufocus.com

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Breakfast News: Metals Meltdown Mauls Markets

Feb -02

Source: fool.com

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Real Estate Stocks Worth Watching – January 31st

Feb -02

Source: defenseworld.net

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Simon Property Group, Inc. $SPG Stake Lowered by Principal Financial Group Inc.

Feb -01

Source: defenseworld.net

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (8.39%)

6. Segments

Real Estate

Expected Growth: 8.5%

Simon Property Group's 8.5% growth is driven by strong occupancy rates, rent increases, and strategic acquisitions. The company's focus on experiential retail, including entertainment and dining options, enhances tenant and consumer engagement, driving foot traffic and sales. Additionally, its robust e-commerce platform and data analytics capabilities support omnichannel retail strategies, fueling growth and profitability.

ALL Other & Eliminations, Net

Expected Growth: 7.0%

The 7.0% growth in ALL Other & Eliminations, Net from Simon Property Group, Inc. is driven by increased investment income, higher rents from premium properties, and strategic acquisitions. Improved operational efficiency and effective capital management also contributed to this growth, reflecting the company's diversified portfolio and strong market presence.

7. Detailed Products

Shopping Malls

Simon Property Group operates a large portfolio of shopping malls across the United States and internationally, offering a range of retail, dining, and entertainment options.

Outlet Malls

Simon's outlet malls offer discounted prices on brand-name merchandise, attracting value-conscious shoppers.

Lifestyle Centers

Simon's lifestyle centers combine retail, dining, and entertainment options in a outdoor setting, providing a unique shopping experience.

The Mills

The Mills are a portfolio of upscale shopping centers in China, offering a range of luxury and premium retail, dining, and entertainment options.

Premium Outlet Centers

Simon's premium outlet centers offer a range of discounted luxury and brand-name merchandise, attracting high-end shoppers seeking deals.

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) Services

Simon Property Group offers real estate investment trust (REIT) services, providing investors with a way to invest in the company's properties and portfolios.

8. Simon Property Group, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Simon Property Group, Inc. operates in the real estate investment trust (REIT) sector, specifically in the mall and retail space. The threat of substitutes is relatively low because while e-commerce and online shopping are growing, they do not entirely replace the in-store experience and social interaction that malls offer. Additionally, Simon Property Group's focus on creating experiential retail environments makes substitution less likely.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for Simon Property Group, Inc. is moderate. While customers have a range of shopping centers to choose from, the company's malls are often premier destinations with high foot traffic and a wide range of retailers. This gives customers some leverage but also makes it essential for retailers to maintain a presence in these locations, balancing the power dynamics.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for Simon Property Group, Inc. is relatively low. The company leases space to a variety of retailers, and there are many potential tenants for its malls. This abundance of potential lessees reduces the bargaining power of individual suppliers (retailers), allowing Simon Property Group to maintain favorable lease terms.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for Simon Property Group, Inc. is high. While there are barriers to entry such as significant capital requirements for developing a new mall or retail space, the real estate and retail sectors are attractive. New entrants, including real estate developers and technology companies looking to create new retail experiences, could potentially disrupt the market. However, Simon Property Group's established brand and extensive portfolio provide a competitive edge.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for Simon Property Group, Inc. is high. The retail and real estate sectors are highly competitive, with numerous players competing for market share, tenants, and customers. Simon Property Group competes with other large mall operators and retail centers, and the competition can be intense, particularly in terms of attracting and retaining top retailers and brands.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 89.39%
Debt Cost 4.28%
Equity Weight 10.61%
Equity Cost 11.28%
WACC 5.02%
Leverage 842.47%

11. Quality Control: Simon Property Group, Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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CBL Properties

A-Score: 7.8/10

Value: 5.8

Growth: 8.4

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 8.3

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VICI Properties

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 7.7

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 10.0

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Realty Income

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 2.9

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 10.0

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Simon Property Group

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 2.1

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 7.0

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Alpine Income Property Trust

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 5.1

Quality: 3.3

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 4.5

Volatility: 9.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Alexanders

A-Score: 5.7/10

Value: 3.1

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 5.0

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

191.22$

Current Price

191.22$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows