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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

STAG Industrial, Inc.(NYSE: STAG) is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition and operation of single-tenant, industrial properties throughout the United States.By targeting this type of property, STAG has developed an investment strategy that helps investors find a powerful balance of income plus growth.

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1.b. Last Insights on STAG

STAG Industrial's recent performance was driven by solid financial compounding, fueled by strategic acquisitions and big rent increases, leading to a raised FFO guidance. The company's focus on industrial real estate and conservative payout ratio provide income stability, while its growth runway remains long, driven by ongoing warehouse expansion, accretive acquisitions, and strong demand from e-commerce and nearshoring trends.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. STAG Industrial's 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

STAG Industrial reported a strong financial performance for 2025, with core FFO per share coming in at $2.55, representing a 6.3% increase from the previous year. The company's quarterly core FFO per share was $0.66, beating estimates of $0.63. The improved industrial supply backdrop, with deliveries down almost 35% versus 2024, supported the growth. Same-store cash NOI grew by 4.3%, indicating a solid operational performance.

Publication Date: Feb -16

📋 Highlights
  • 2025 Performance:: Achieved 4.3% same-store cash NOI growth and 6.3% core FFO per share increase ($2.55/yr) over 2024.
  • 2026 Delivery Outlook:: Anticipates ≤180M sq ft of new deliveries, 35% lower than 2024, with vacancy rates peaking H1 and absorption improving H2.
  • Leasing Momentum:: Exceeded 2025 leasing targets; 20,000,000 sq ft of expirations in 2026, with potential for early backfill and upside if retention stays ≥75%.
  • Acquisition Pipeline:: $3.6B in acquisition pipeline and $81M in Q1 2026 deals, with 907K sq ft guided leasing (30% higher YoY), including build-to-suit projects.
  • Capital Costs & Returns:: Debt cost of 5.5–5.75% vs. equity cost in low 6s; $100M retained cash flow post-dividends supports growth without equity raises.

Operational Highlights

The company's operational performance was characterized by a successful year in 2025, with leasing volume exceeding budgeted metrics. The company has 20,000,000 square feet rolling in 2026, with a historical retention rate of around 75%. The management is budgeting for a nine to twelve month lease-up period for these properties. According to William R. Crooker, "if the momentum continues, we could at least backfill product earlier in the year, and that would be upside."

Guidance and Outlook

STAG Industrial initiated a core FFO per share range of $2.60 to $2.64 for 2026, indicating a continued growth trajectory. The company expects net absorption to improve in 2026, contributing to positive rent growth. National vacancy rates are expected to peak in the first half of 2026, with an inflection point in the back half of the year. The company's pipeline is strong, with a $3,600,000,000 pipeline, and they are seeing a healthy transaction market.

Valuation

With a P/E Ratio of 26.14 and a P/S Ratio of 8.6, the market is pricing in a certain level of growth for STAG Industrial. The company's Dividend Yield is 3.91%, indicating an attractive income stream for investors. The EV/EBITDA ratio is 12.19, suggesting a reasonable valuation for the company's earnings. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 8.9%, which is in line with the company's guidance.

Market Conditions

The company is seeing a balance of demand in their development markets, with a mix of distribution and manufacturing. The industrial market is expected to see 180,000,000 square feet of deliveries in 2026, which is down 35% from 2024. The management is not concerned about new supply coming online, as any additional supply will come online in 2027 or later, and when it does, it will be in the landlord's favor.

3. NewsRoom

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The State Of REITs: March 2026 Edition

Mar -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Stag Industrial (NYSE:STAG) Director Virgis Colbert Sells 18,000 Shares of Stock

Feb -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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Stag Industrial (NYSE:STAG) EVP Matts Pinard Sells 25,242 Shares

Feb -24

Source: defenseworld.net

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Stag Industrial, Inc. $STAG Shares Bought by Channing Capital Management LLC

Feb -22

Source: defenseworld.net

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The State Of REITs: February 2026 Edition

Feb -19

Source: seekingalpha.com

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4 U.S., Canada REITs Announce Higher Dividends In January

Feb -13

Source: seekingalpha.com

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Stag Industrial: Buy The Dip And Collect A Near 4% Yield From A Steady Performer

Feb -13

Source: seekingalpha.com

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STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Feb -12

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (7.83%)

6. Segments

Fixed Lease Payments

Expected Growth: 8%

STAG Industrial's 8% growth in fixed lease payments is driven by increasing demand for logistics and e-commerce facilities, strategic acquisitions, and a strong portfolio of long-term leases with creditworthy tenants, resulting in stable and predictable cash flows.

Variable Lease Payments

Expected Growth: 7%

STAG Industrial's 7% growth in Variable Lease Payments is driven by increasing demand for logistics and e-commerce facilities, expansion into high-growth markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on long-term leases and rent escalations contributes to revenue growth, while its diversified tenant base and strong property operations management also support this growth.

Straight-line Rental Income

Expected Growth: 10%

STAG Industrial's 10% straight-line rental income growth is driven by increasing demand for industrial properties, strategic acquisitions, and rent escalations. Additionally, the company's focus on high-quality, single-tenant properties and a diversified tenant base contribute to its growth. Furthermore, STAG's ability to identify and capitalize on opportunities in the industrial real estate market also supports its growth momentum.

Other

Expected Growth: 6%

STAG Industrial's 6% growth is driven by increasing demand for e-commerce logistics, expansion into new markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on single-tenant, industrial properties with long-term leases provides a stable source of revenue. Furthermore, STAG's ability to capitalize on the trend of companies outsourcing their logistics and supply chain management needs also contributes to its growth.

Net Increase (Decrease) to Rental Income Related to above and below Market Lease Amortization

Expected Growth: 9%

STAG Industrial's 9% net increase in rental income is driven by above-market lease amortization, resulting from strategic acquisitions and lease renewals. This growth is fueled by a strong industrial property market, characterized by high demand, limited supply, and increasing rents. Additionally, the company's focus on high-quality, long-term leases and proactive asset management contribute to the upward trend.

7. Detailed Products

Industrial Warehouses

STAG Industrial, Inc. offers industrial warehouses for rent, providing flexible and customizable storage solutions for businesses of all sizes.

Distribution Centers

STAG Industrial's distribution centers provide strategic locations for businesses to store and distribute their products, reducing transportation costs and increasing efficiency.

Manufacturing Facilities

STAG Industrial offers manufacturing facilities for rent, providing businesses with the space and infrastructure needed to manufacture and assemble products.

Cold Storage Facilities

STAG Industrial's cold storage facilities provide temperature-controlled environments for businesses to store perishable goods, ensuring product quality and safety.

Last-Mile Delivery Facilities

STAG Industrial's last-mile delivery facilities provide businesses with strategic locations for final product delivery, reducing transportation costs and increasing customer satisfaction.

8. STAG Industrial, Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for STAG Industrial, Inc. is medium due to the availability of alternative industrial properties and logistics services.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for STAG Industrial, Inc. is low due to the company's diversified customer base and long-term leases.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for STAG Industrial, Inc. is medium due to the company's dependence on a few large suppliers for construction and maintenance services.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for STAG Industrial, Inc. is low due to the high barriers to entry in the industrial real estate market, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for STAG Industrial, Inc. is high due to the competitive nature of the industrial real estate market, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 43.74%
Debt Cost 4.90%
Equity Weight 56.26%
Equity Cost 9.14%
WACC 7.28%
Leverage 77.76%

11. Quality Control: STAG Industrial, Inc. passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
STAG Industrial

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 3.3

Growth: 5.4

Quality: 6.5

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

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National Storage

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 5.3

Quality: 7.1

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 2.0

Volatility: 8.3

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Terreno Realty

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 7.4

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 6.0

Volatility: 8.7

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EastGroup Properties

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 1.8

Growth: 6.1

Quality: 6.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

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First Industrial Realty Trust

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 2.1

Growth: 5.6

Quality: 6.8

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

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CubeSmart

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 3.4

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 2.5

Volatility: 9.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

36.64$

Current Price

36.64$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows