Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Barrick Gold Corporation engages in the exploration, mine development, production, and sale of gold and copper properties.It has ownership interests in producing gold mines that are located in Argentina, Canada, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, Mali, Tanzania, and the United States.The company also has ownership interests in producing copper mines located in Chile, Saudi Arabia, and Zambia; and various other projects located throughout the Americas and Africa.

Barrick Gold Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ABX

Recent positive drivers behind Barrick Gold Corporation's performance include: * A new partnership with the Tanzanian government, emphasizing long-term investment and community development, which may have influenced investor sentiment, announced on July 8, 2025. * A solid start to the financial year with significant progress on its long-term strategy and advancing its global portfolio of Tier One gold and copper assets, as reported on May 7, 2025. * Improved financial performance, with net earnings per share increasing 59% year-over-year to $0.27 and adjusted net earnings per share growing by 84%, as reported on May 7, 2025. Additionally, the company's focus on strategic growth objectives and its ability to navigate easing U.S.-Canada trade tensions, as seen in the TSX's gain on June 16, 2025, may have contributed to its recent performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	66.17
Change Percentage	0.02%
Open	66
Previous Close	66.16
Market Cap ( Millions)	111658
Volume	600360
Year High	74
Year Low	24.28
M A 50	63.65
M A 200	43.6

FCF Yield	4.91%
Dividend Yield	1.11%
ROE	19.79%
Debt / Equity	17.89%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-17.59%
Price To Book	3.05
Price Earnings Ratio	16.2
Price To FCF	20.38
Price To sales	4.79
EV / EBITDA	7.16

2. Barrick's Strong Q4 Results and Growth Strategy

Barrick's Q4 financial results were impressive, with an 82% increase in EBITDA and a 96% increase in cash flow from the previous year. The company's attributable EBITDA increased 53% versus the prior quarter. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.42, beating estimates of $1.22. The strong financial performance was driven by a 5% increase in gold production compared to the previous quarter, with Carlin seeing a 25% increase. The company's cash flow from operations was $7.7 billion, and free cash flow was $3.9 billion for the year. With a net cash position of $2 billion, the company is well-positioned for future growth.

Publication Date: Feb -09

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Record Financial Performance:
                                                Q4 EBITDA surged 82% YoY to $X, with cash flow up 96%, driven by 5% QoQ gold production growth and 25% increase at Carlin.
Shareholder Returns:
                                                $1.5B in share repurchases and a 40% base dividend hike to 17.5¢/quarter, with Q4 dividend at 42¢/share (140% QoQ increase).
Free Cash Flow & Liquidity:
                                                Generated $3.9B free cash flow and $2B net cash position in 2025, supporting dividend policy targeting 50% of free cash flow.
Strategic Asset Moves:
                                                Plans IPO of North American assets by Q4 2026, aiming to unlock undervalued portfolio ($2.55B gold resource at $82/oz) and enhance shareholder value.
Production Guidance:
                                                2026 gold output of 2.9–3.25M oz and copper of 192k–220k tonnes, with 2027–2028 production expected to rise, backed by 85M oz attributable gold reserves.

                                

Operational Highlights

The company's operational review led to improved performance, and the resolution of a dispute in Mali secured the release of detained colleagues and resumed control of the asset. Gold production for the year was 3,260,000 ounces, in line with guidance. Copper production increased 13% from Q3. For 2026, gold production is expected to be 2.9-3,250,000 ounces, with copper production guided at 192,000-220,000 tonnes. The company continues to expect production uplift in 2027 and 2028.

Dividend Policy and Share Repurchases

The board authorized a 40% increase in the base dividend to 17.5¢ per quarter and a new dividend policy targeting 50% of attributable free cash flow. A Q4 dividend of 42¢ per share was announced, a 140% increase from Q3. The company's focus on maximizing shareholder value is evident in its decision to prioritize dividends, with the board focused on this area and not renewing the buyback approval. The previous share repurchases, totaling $1.5 billion, demonstrate the company's commitment to returning value to shareholders.

Valuation and Growth Prospects

With a P/E Ratio of 15.13 and an EV/EBITDA of 6.89, the company's valuation appears reasonable. The Dividend Yield is 1.16%, and the Free Cash Flow Yield is 4.93%. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 9.1%. As the company progresses with its growth strategy, including the planned IPO of its North American assets, investors can expect increased transparency and potentially a rerating of the stock. The company's focus on tier one high-quality assets and its commitment to investing in gold in line with its strategy are positive indicators for future growth.

Cost Structure and Future Plans

The company broadly expects flat costs going forward after 2026. With a strong financial position and a clear growth strategy, Barrick is well-positioned to deliver value to shareholders. The company's gold resource stands at 31 million ounces, valued at $2.55 billion or $82 an ounce. As the company continues to execute its plans, including the IPO and ramping up production in Mali, investors can expect updates on the progress of these initiatives.

3. NewsRoom

Barrick shares fall as gold miner posts strong Q4, prepares North American IPO

Feb -05

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Omega nominates two directors to Elixir Energy board

Jan -02

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Seeing Machines forms dedicated future mobility team

Jan -02

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Gold sector ‘in its best shape in years’ heading into 2026

Dec -31

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Tier-One Territory: 5 Gold Stocks Operating in the Land of Giants

Dec -24

Source: prnewswire.com

Copper set for tight market in 2026 and gold miners have more room to run, says UBS

Dec -12

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Sintana Energy advances Challenger acquisition with court, TSXV approvals

Dec -12

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Dow closes lower, Apple hits record as Santa Claus rally doubts grow

Dec -01

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.66%)

6. Segments

Carlin

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Carlin's growth of 4.5 is driven by Barrick Gold's increased production, improved gold grades, and efficient operations. The segment benefits from Carlin's large land package, exploration success, and high-margin operations, contributing to the company's overall growth and profitability.

Other Mines

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Barrick Gold's Other Mines segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increased production at existing mines, improved gold prices, and efficient cost management. The segment's growth is also attributed to successful exploration and development of new projects, contributing to the company's overall revenue expansion.

Cortez

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Cortez's growth is driven by Barrick Gold's increased production, improved gold prices, and efficient operations. The mine's 5.2 growth is attributed to higher throughput, better recovery rates, and cost management. Additionally, Cortez's development of new ore bodies and exploration success contribute to its growth trajectory.

Pueblo Viejo

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Pueblo Viejo's growth is driven by increased gold and silver production, with a 6.0% growth rate. The mine's expansion and optimization efforts have led to higher throughput and recoveries. Additionally, higher gold and silver prices have positively impacted revenue. Operational efficiencies and cost management have also contributed to the growth, positioning Pueblo Viejo as a key contributor to Barrick Gold Corporation's overall performance.

Loulo-Gounkoto

Expected Growth: 5.5%

The 5.5 growth in Loulo-Gounkoto from Barrick Gold Corporation is driven by increased gold production, improved grades, and higher recoveries. The mine's expansion and successful exploration have contributed to the growth, with a focus on optimizing operations and reducing costs. This strong performance is a result of Barrick's strategic investments and effective management of the asset.

Turquoise Ridge

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Turquoise Ridge's growth is driven by increased gold production, high-grade ore, and efficient operations. Barrick Gold Corporation's focus on optimizing mine performance and exploration efforts contribute to the 4.8% growth, positioning Turquoise Ridge as a key contributor to the company's overall success.

North Mara

Expected Growth: 5.0%

North Mara's growth is driven by Barrick Gold Corporation's strategic investments, efficient operations, and favorable market conditions. The 5.0 growth level is attributed to increased production volumes, higher gold prices, and optimized costs. The company's focus on sustainability and exploration also contributes to the segment's growth, positioning North Mara for continued success.

Kibali

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Kibali's growth is driven by Barrick Gold Corporation's strategic investment, efficient operations, and favorable market conditions. The 6.2 growth level is attributed to increased gold production, higher metal prices, and effective cost management. Improved mining techniques and exploration success also contribute to Kibali's growth trajectory.

Bulyanhulu

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Bulyanhulu's growth is driven by increased gold production, higher grades, and improved operational efficiency. Barrick Gold Corporation's investment in exploration and development has led to an expansion of the mine's reserves and resources, contributing to a 4.2% growth rate. The company's focus on cost management and productivity enhancements has also positively impacted the segment's growth.

Lumwana

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Lumwana's growth is driven by Barrick Gold Corporation's strategic focus on copper, with Lumwana being a key asset. The mine's growth is attributed to increased copper production, higher grades, and improved operational efficiency. Additionally, Barrick's investments in exploration and development have contributed to Lumwana's 4.0 growth level, positioning it as a significant contributor to the company's overall growth strategy.

Unallocated Other Revenue

Expected Growth: 3.0%

The 3.0% growth in Unallocated Other Revenue from Barrick Gold Corporation is driven by increased royalties and other income, likely due to higher gold prices and improved operational performance. This growth is also attributed to favorable market conditions and efficient management of non-core assets.

Unallocated Share of Equity Investees

Expected Growth: 8.0%

Barrick Gold's unallocated share of equity investees growth of 8.0% is driven by increased gold prices, improved operational efficiency, and strategic investments in growth projects, contributing to higher earnings and expanded asset base, reflecting effective capital allocation and strong market performance.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Barrick Gold Corporation is one of the largest gold producers in the world, with a portfolio of high-quality gold mines and projects across five continents.

Copper

Barrick Gold Corporation also produces copper as a by-product of its gold mining operations, with significant copper production at its Zaldivar mine in Chile.

Silver

Silver is another by-product of Barrick Gold Corporation's gold mining operations, with significant silver production at its Veladero mine in Argentina.

Exploration Services

Barrick Gold Corporation offers exploration services to identify and develop new gold deposits, providing expertise in geology, drilling, and mining engineering.

Mining Services

Barrick Gold Corporation provides mining services, including mine planning, operations management, and technical support to optimize mining operations.

8. Barrick Gold Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Barrick Gold Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes, as gold is a commodity and there are limited substitutes for it. However, the company's focus on gold mining and exploration reduces the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Barrick Gold Corporation has a low bargaining power of customers, as the company sells its gold to a few large refineries and banks, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Barrick Gold Corporation has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers, as the company relies on a few large suppliers for equipment and services, but has some flexibility to switch suppliers if needed.

Threat Of New Entrants

Barrick Gold Corporation faces a low threat of new entrants, as the gold mining industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Barrick Gold Corporation operates in a highly competitive industry, with several large gold mining companies competing for market share and resources, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	18.29%
Debt Cost	5.08%
Equity Weight	81.71%
Equity Cost	5.08%
WACC	5.08%
Leverage	22.38%

11. Quality Control: Barrick Gold Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Agnico Eagle Mines

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 2.8

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Newmont

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 4.6

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.3

1-Year Total Return ->

Wheaton

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 0.2

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Barrick Gold

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 7.6

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

LyondellBasell

A-Score: 4.6/10

Value: 6.8

Growth: 2.6

Quality: 1.9

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

-0.37%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

5.08%

Barrick Gold Corporation - CA0679011084

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ABX

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Better Quality

Average Yield

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Average Quality

Medium Volatility

Revenues Miss

Average Growth

Strong Momentum

Earnings Miss

Higher Yield

Stable Momentum

Lower Growth

2. Barrick's Strong Q4 Results and Growth Strategy

Operational Highlights

Dividend Policy and Share Repurchases

Valuation and Growth Prospects

Cost Structure and Future Plans

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.66%)

6. Segments

Carlin

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Other Mines

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Cortez

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Pueblo Viejo

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Loulo-Gounkoto

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Turquoise Ridge

Expected Growth: 4.8%

North Mara

Expected Growth: 5.0%

Kibali

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Bulyanhulu

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Lumwana

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Unallocated Other Revenue

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Unallocated Share of Equity Investees

Expected Growth: 8.0%

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Copper

Silver

Exploration Services

Mining Services

8. Barrick Gold Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Barrick Gold Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA