Barrick Gold Corporation (ABX.TO) | Investment Case

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Barrick Gold Corporation engages in the exploration, mine development, production, and sale of gold and copper properties.It has ownership interests in producing gold mines that are located in Argentina, Canada, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, Mali, Tanzania, and the United States.The company also has ownership interests in producing copper mines located in Chile, Saudi Arabia, and Zambia; and various other projects located throughout the Americas and Africa.

Barrick Gold Corporation was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

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1.b. Last Insights on ABX

Recent positive drivers behind Barrick Gold Corporation's performance include: * A new partnership with the Tanzanian government, emphasizing long-term investment and community development, which may have influenced investor sentiment, announced on July 8, 2025. * A solid start to the financial year with significant progress on its long-term strategy and advancing its global portfolio of Tier One gold and copper assets, as reported on May 7, 2025. * Improved financial performance, with net earnings per share increasing 59% year-over-year to $0.27 and adjusted net earnings per share growing by 84%, as reported on May 7, 2025. Additionally, the company's focus on strategic growth objectives and its ability to navigate easing U.S.-Canada trade tensions, as seen in the TSX's gain on June 16, 2025, may have contributed to its recent performance.

1.c. Company Highlights

Last Price	56.75
Change Percentage	-0.63%
Open	57.71
Previous Close	57.11
Market Cap ( Millions)	97710
Volume	1741640
Year High	60.14
Year Low	21.73
M A 50	49.35
M A 200	34.72

FCF Yield	3.98%
Dividend Yield	1.28%
ROE	14.51%
Debt / Equity	18.74%
Net Debt / EBIDTA	-3.69%
Price To Book	2.78
Price Earnings Ratio	19.5
Price To FCF	25.13
Price To sales	4.84
EV / EBITDA	8.03

2. Barrick Gold's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Barrick Gold's Q3 2025 earnings report was a resounding success, with the company posting an EPS of $0.82, slightly below analyst estimates of $0.841. Revenue growth was driven by a 4% increase in gold production and a higher gold price, resulting in a significant increase in free cash flow. The company's attributable gold EBITDA rose by 25% quarter-on-quarter, driven by lower costs per ounce. The actual EPS figure was accompanied by a record quarterly cash return to shareholders, comprising a 25% increase in the base dividend to 12.5 cents per share and a $598 million share repurchase.

Publication Date: Nov -11

                                    📋 Highlights
                                    Gold Production Growth::
                                                4% quarter-on-quarter increase driven by higher grades at Kibali and improved throughput at Cortez, Turquoise Ridge, and Pueblo Viejo.
Gold EBITDA Surge::
                                                25% QoQ attributable gold EBITDA growth due to lower costs per ounce and higher gold prices.
Shareholder Returns::
                                                25% base dividend hike to 12.5¢/share and $598M share repurchase, with $500M added to the buyback program.
Copper Production Dip::
                                                Slight decline from Q2 due to Lumwana planned shutdown, but annual guidance remains unchanged.
Fourmile Exploration Progress::
                                                16 drill rigs on site aiming to double the resource this year, with a PEA highlighting grade, scale, and exploration upside.

                                

Operational Highlights

The company's gold production was driven by higher grades at Kibali, increased throughput at Cortez and Turquoise Ridge, and a record high throughput at Pueblo Viejo. Copper production was slightly down due to a planned shutdown at Lumwana, but the company expects to deliver within its production guidance ranges for the year. The operational review at Nevada Gold Mines is focused on improving consistency in delivery, with a bottom-up approach to assess mining efficiencies and maintenance approaches.

Exploration and Growth Prospects

The Fourmile gold discovery in Nevada continues to show significant potential, with 16 drill rigs on site and plans to double the existing resource this year. The updated PEA for Fourmile highlights a rare combination of grade, scale, and exploration upside, making it an exciting growth prospect for the company. As Mark Hill, CEO of Barrick Gold, noted, the company is making progress in realizing value from its portfolio, with a focus on The Americas, particularly Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo.

Valuation and Outlook

With a P/E Ratio of 21.73 and an EV/EBITDA of 7.94, the company's valuation appears reasonable, considering its strong operational performance and growth prospects. Analysts estimate revenue growth of 22.0% next year, which could potentially drive the stock price higher. The company's decision to put on collars for a small portion of its production is not seen as a change in strategy, and it remains largely exposed to the gold price. With a Dividend Yield of 1.29% and a Free Cash Flow Yield of 2.99%, the stock offers an attractive return profile for investors.

3. NewsRoom

Dow closes lower, Apple hits record as Santa Claus rally doubts grow

Dec -01

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Nasdaq struggles to find footing as holiday rally loses steam

Dec -01

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Barrick exploring IPO of North American assets

Dec -01

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Elliott Management takes $700M stake in Barrick Gold, raising split speculation

Nov -18

Source: proactiveinvestors.com

Barrick Mining Signs Definitive Option Agreement for Midland Exploration's Lewis Gold Property

Nov -17

Source:

Should You Buy Kinross Gold Stock After an 82% Rally in 6 Months?

Nov -17

Source:

Midland Signs Definitive Agreement With Barrick for the Lewis Gold Property

Nov -17

Source:

Barrick Gold (NYSE:GOLD): Evaluating Valuation After Recent Share Price Surge

Nov -17

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.66%)

6. Segments

Carlin

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Carlin's growth of 4.5 is driven by Barrick Gold's increased production, improved gold grades, and efficient operations. The segment benefits from Carlin's large land package, exploration success, and high-margin operations, contributing to the company's overall growth and profitability.

Other Mines

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Barrick Gold's Other Mines segment growth of 3.8% is driven by increased production at existing mines, improved gold prices, and efficient cost management. The segment's growth is also attributed to successful exploration and development of new projects, contributing to the company's overall revenue expansion.

Cortez

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Cortez's growth is driven by Barrick Gold's increased production, improved gold prices, and efficient operations. The mine's 5.2 growth is attributed to higher throughput, better recovery rates, and cost management. Additionally, Cortez's development of new ore bodies and exploration success contribute to its growth trajectory.

Pueblo Viejo

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Pueblo Viejo's growth is driven by increased gold and silver production, with a 6.0% growth rate. The mine's expansion and optimization efforts have led to higher throughput and recoveries. Additionally, higher gold and silver prices have positively impacted revenue. Operational efficiencies and cost management have also contributed to the growth, positioning Pueblo Viejo as a key contributor to Barrick Gold Corporation's overall performance.

Loulo-Gounkoto

Expected Growth: 5.5%

The 5.5 growth in Loulo-Gounkoto from Barrick Gold Corporation is driven by increased gold production, improved grades, and higher recoveries. The mine's expansion and successful exploration have contributed to the growth, with a focus on optimizing operations and reducing costs. This strong performance is a result of Barrick's strategic investments and effective management of the asset.

Turquoise Ridge

Expected Growth: 4.8%

Turquoise Ridge's growth is driven by increased gold production, high-grade ore, and efficient operations. Barrick Gold Corporation's focus on optimizing mine performance and exploration efforts contribute to the 4.8% growth, positioning Turquoise Ridge as a key contributor to the company's overall success.

North Mara

Expected Growth: 5.0%

North Mara's growth is driven by Barrick Gold Corporation's strategic investments, efficient operations, and favorable market conditions. The 5.0 growth level is attributed to increased production volumes, higher gold prices, and optimized costs. The company's focus on sustainability and exploration also contributes to the segment's growth, positioning North Mara for continued success.

Kibali

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Kibali's growth is driven by Barrick Gold Corporation's strategic investment, efficient operations, and favorable market conditions. The 6.2 growth level is attributed to increased gold production, higher metal prices, and effective cost management. Improved mining techniques and exploration success also contribute to Kibali's growth trajectory.

Bulyanhulu

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Bulyanhulu's growth is driven by increased gold production, higher grades, and improved operational efficiency. Barrick Gold Corporation's investment in exploration and development has led to an expansion of the mine's reserves and resources, contributing to a 4.2% growth rate. The company's focus on cost management and productivity enhancements has also positively impacted the segment's growth.

Lumwana

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Lumwana's growth is driven by Barrick Gold Corporation's strategic focus on copper, with Lumwana being a key asset. The mine's growth is attributed to increased copper production, higher grades, and improved operational efficiency. Additionally, Barrick's investments in exploration and development have contributed to Lumwana's 4.0 growth level, positioning it as a significant contributor to the company's overall growth strategy.

Unallocated Other Revenue

Expected Growth: 3.0%

The 3.0% growth in Unallocated Other Revenue from Barrick Gold Corporation is driven by increased royalties and other income, likely due to higher gold prices and improved operational performance. This growth is also attributed to favorable market conditions and efficient management of non-core assets.

Unallocated Share of Equity Investees

Expected Growth: 8.0%

Barrick Gold's unallocated share of equity investees growth of 8.0% is driven by increased gold prices, improved operational efficiency, and strategic investments in growth projects, contributing to higher earnings and expanded asset base, reflecting effective capital allocation and strong market performance.

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Barrick Gold Corporation is one of the largest gold producers in the world, with a portfolio of high-quality gold mines and projects across five continents.

Copper

Barrick Gold Corporation also produces copper as a by-product of its gold mining operations, with significant copper production at its Zaldivar mine in Chile.

Silver

Silver is another by-product of Barrick Gold Corporation's gold mining operations, with significant silver production at its Veladero mine in Argentina.

Exploration Services

Barrick Gold Corporation offers exploration services to identify and develop new gold deposits, providing expertise in geology, drilling, and mining engineering.

Mining Services

Barrick Gold Corporation provides mining services, including mine planning, operations management, and technical support to optimize mining operations.

8. Barrick Gold Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Barrick Gold Corporation faces moderate threat from substitutes, as gold is a commodity and there are limited substitutes for it. However, the company's focus on gold mining and exploration reduces the threat of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Barrick Gold Corporation has a low bargaining power of customers, as the company sells its gold to a few large refineries and banks, which reduces the bargaining power of individual customers.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Barrick Gold Corporation has a moderate bargaining power of suppliers, as the company relies on a few large suppliers for equipment and services, but has some flexibility to switch suppliers if needed.

Threat Of New Entrants

Barrick Gold Corporation faces a low threat of new entrants, as the gold mining industry has high barriers to entry, including significant capital requirements and regulatory hurdles.

Intensity Of Rivalry

Barrick Gold Corporation operates in a highly competitive industry, with several large gold mining companies competing for market share and resources, which increases the intensity of rivalry.

9. SWOT Analysis

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

	Value
Debt Weight	18.29%
Debt Cost	5.08%
Equity Weight	81.71%
Equity Cost	5.08%
WACC	5.08%
Leverage	22.38%

11. Quality Control: Barrick Gold Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

Strong Liquidity

Low Debt

Strong Interest Coverage

Healthy Cash Flow

Operating Inefficiency

Strong Return On Equity

Consistent Revenue Growth

Consistent Operating Cash Flow Growth

Margin Improvement

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Lundin Gold

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 1.9

Growth: 9.1

Quality: 8.6

Yield: 6.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 3.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Newmont

A-Score: 6.2/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 4.8

Quality: 8.1

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Agnico Eagle Mines

A-Score: 6.1/10

Value: 2.5

Growth: 6.7

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

Wheaton

A-Score: 5.6/10

Value: 0.5

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 8.0

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 7.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Barrick Gold

A-Score: 5.4/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 1.0

Quality: 7.2

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

LyondellBasell

A-Score: 4.2/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 2.7

Quality: 2.6

Yield: 10.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

6.33%

Short term Time

10.0

Long-Term Growth

2.00%

WACC

5.08%

Barrick Gold Corporation - CA0679011084

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

1.b. Last Insights on ABX

1.c. Company Highlights

Less Volatile

Better Quality

Average Yield

Earnings Beats

Revenues Beats

Average Quality

Medium Volatility

Revenues Miss

Average Growth

Strong Momentum

Earnings Miss

Higher Yield

Stable Momentum

Lower Growth

2. Barrick Gold's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Operational Highlights

Exploration and Growth Prospects

Valuation and Outlook

3. NewsRoom

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (4.66%)

6. Segments

Carlin

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Other Mines

Expected Growth: 3.8%

Cortez

Expected Growth: 5.2%

Pueblo Viejo

Expected Growth: 6.0%

Loulo-Gounkoto

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Turquoise Ridge

Expected Growth: 4.8%

North Mara

Expected Growth: 5.0%

Kibali

Expected Growth: 6.2%

Bulyanhulu

Expected Growth: 4.2%

Lumwana

Expected Growth: 4.0%

Unallocated Other Revenue

Expected Growth: 3.0%

Unallocated Share of Equity Investees

Expected Growth: 8.0%

7. Detailed Products

Gold

Copper

Silver

Exploration Services

Mining Services

8. Barrick Gold Corporation's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

Bargaining Power Of Customers

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

Threat Of New Entrants

Intensity Of Rivalry

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

11. Quality Control: Barrick Gold Corporation passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

12.e Scoring ^Insights

12.f DCF ^BETA