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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Equinor ASA, an energy company, engages in the exploration, production, transportation, refining, and marketing of petroleum and petroleum-derived products, and other forms of energy in Norway and internationally.It operates through Exploration & Production Norway; Exploration & Production International; Exploration & Production USA; Marketing, Midstream & Processing; Renewables; and Other segments.The company also transports, processes, manufactures, markets, and trades in oil and gas commodities, such as crude and condensate products, gas liquids, natural gas, and liquefied natural gas; markets and trades in electricity and emission rights; operates refineries, terminals and processing, and power plants; and develops low carbon solutions for oil and gas.


In addition, it develops wind, and carbon capture and storage projects, as well as offers other renewable energy.As of December 31, 2021, the company had proved oil and gas reserves of 5,356 million barrels of oil equivalent.Equinor ASA has collaboration agreements with Vårgrønn; and RWE Renewables and Hydro REIN.


The company was formerly known as Statoil ASA and changed its name to Equinor ASA in May 2018.Equinor ASA was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Stavanger, Norway.

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1.b. Last Insights on EQNR

Equinor's recent momentum is driven by its robust Q4 earnings, which beat estimates on the back of higher production volumes. The company's upstream resource base is being reinforced by new oil and gas discoveries, including those near the Heidrun field and in the Sissel prospect. Additionally, Equinor has secured 35 new Norwegian offshore licenses, underscoring its commitment to growth. The company's share buy-back program is also a positive catalyst, as it reduces the number of outstanding shares and enhances shareholder value.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Equinor's Strong 2025 Deliveries and Guidance for 2026

Equinor reported a strong financial performance in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $7.82, significantly beating analyst estimates of $5.88. The company's cash flow from operations after tax was $18 billion, driven by a record-high production of 2,137,000 barrels per day, up 3.4% from the previous year. The return on average capital employed was 14.5%, a testament to the company's efficient capital allocation. Adjusted operating income from E&P Norway totaled $5 billion, driven by increased production at lower prices.

Publication Date: Feb -05

📋 Highlights
  • Record Financial Performance:: Equinor achieved $18 billion cash flow from operations after tax in 2025, with a 14.5% return on average capital employed (ROCE), driven by 3.4% production growth to 2.14 million barrels per day.
  • Strong Capital Returns:: The company distributed $9 billion in shareholder capital (dividends + buybacks) in 2025, with a $1.5 billion share buyback planned for 2026 under a $13 billion CapEx guiding.
  • Cost Efficiency Gains:: Unit production costs are set to drop 10% to $6/barrel in 2026, alongside 10% OpEx/SG&A reductions, supporting $25 billion in free cash flow over 2026–2027.
  • 2026 Outlook:: Anticipates $16 billion in after-tax cash flow, 3% production growth, and $13 billion organic CapEx, maintaining a 13% ROCE target and $40/barrel breakeven.
  • Strategic Reshaping:: Reduced renewable CapEx by $4 billion, exited high-cost exploration areas, and streamlined NCS operations to cut project timelines from 5-7 years to 2-3 years by 2027.

Operational Highlights and Guidance

The company has guided for around $16 billion in cash flow from operations after tax in 2026, with a production growth of around 3%. The CapEx guidance for 2026 is around $13 billion, reducing to $9 billion in 2027. Equinor aims to deliver competitive capital distribution, including a growing cash dividend and share buybacks, with a share buyback program of $1.5 billion announced for 2026.

Valuation and Return Metrics

With a P/E Ratio of 11.97 and an EV/EBITDA of 2.18, Equinor's valuation appears reasonable. The company's ROE is 3.77%, and ROIC is 5.53%. The dividend yield is attractive at 7.57%, and the free cash flow yield is 10.41%. These metrics suggest that Equinor is generating strong cash flows and returning value to shareholders.

Cost Discipline and Portfolio Optimization

Equinor has demonstrated strong cost discipline, with a reduction in CapEx outlook by $4 billion. The company is focused on optimizing its international portfolio, with production expected to grow to 900,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030. The company's low unit production cost is expected to be reduced by around 10% to $6 per barrel in 2026.

Renewable Energy and Growth Strategy

The company is making progress in renewable energy, with a reduced CapEx profile and a focus on integrating intermittent power sources with flexible power sources. Equinor's growth strategy involves repositioning its international portfolio, with a focus on areas with experience and learning, such as Angola, Brazil, and the US offshore.

Project Updates and Exploration

Equinor is making progress on several projects, including Wisting and Bay du Nord. The company is simplifying the Wisting project, with a concept decision expected in 2026 and an investment decision in 2027. Bay du Nord is approaching a concept selection, with a Decision Gate 2 review. The company's exploration strategy is focused on areas with experience and learning.

3. NewsRoom

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Equinor ASA: Announcement of cash dividend of NOK 3.5249 per share for third quarter 2025

06:50

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SLB Ties Offshore Deals And Geothermal Push To Longer Term Story

00:20

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Here's How XOM Is Scaling Up Its CCS Footprint to Reduce Emissions

Feb -20

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Vista Energy (VIST) Resumed with a ‘Buy’ Rating and $88 Price Target

Feb -19

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Equinor’s Vikingskipet prospect in Barents Sea yields no hydrocarbons

Feb -19

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Latest News In Energy Transition - Hydrogen Infrastructure Growth Driven By Global Decarbonization Policies

Feb -19

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European Equities Traded in the US as American Depositary Receipts Higher Wednesday

Feb -18

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This Week In Energy Transition - Global Energy Shift Unveils Multi-Trillion-Dollar Opportunities

Feb -17

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (5.14%)

6. Segments

Marketing, Midstream & Processing (MMP)

Expected Growth: 4.3%

Equinor’s Marketing, Midstream & Processing operations will see growth driven by increased demand for natural gas in Europe, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships, as well as investments in digitalization and energy transition initiatives.

Exploration & Production Norway (EPN)

Expected Growth: 4.5%

Equinor's oil and gas exploration and production in Norway is driven by increasing demand for low-carbon energy, and the country's vast hydrocarbon resources. Norway's stable and predictable regulatory environment and high investment in digitalization also contribute to the growth.

Exploration & Production International (Excluding E&P USA)

Expected Growth: 5.5%

Equinor’s international oil and gas exploration and production growth is driven by increasing energy needs, strategic acquisitions, and a strong focus on digitalization and low-carbon solutions, positioning the company for long-term sustainable growth.

Exploration & Production USA (E&P USA)

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Equinor ASA's oil and gas exploration and production in the United States is driven by increasing energy demand, favorable regulatory environment, and strategic partnerships with major oil companies, supporting a moderate growth rate. The company's focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency will enhance its competitiveness.

Other

Expected Growth: 5.5%

None

Renewables (REN)

Expected Growth: 13.4%

Equinor ASA's Renewables segment is driven by government support, declining costs, and increasing demand for clean energy, leading to a strong growth outlook.

Eliminations

Expected Growth: 2.5%

Equinor ASA's employee eliminations segment growth is driven by the company's restructuring efforts, focusing on cost reduction, and streamlining operations to improve profitability.

7. Detailed Products

Crude Oil

Equinor ASA is a major producer of crude oil, with operations in several countries including Norway, the UK, and Brazil.

Natural Gas

Equinor ASA is a significant producer of natural gas, with operations in several countries including Norway, the UK, and Algeria.

LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas)

Equinor ASA is a major producer of LNG, with operations in several countries including Norway and Algeria.

Refined Products

Equinor ASA refines crude oil into various petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.

Renewable Energy

Equinor ASA is investing in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)

Equinor ASA is a leader in CCS technology, which captures and stores CO2 emissions from industrial sources.

Energy Storage

Equinor ASA is investing in energy storage solutions such as batteries and hydrogen fuel cells.

8. Equinor ASA's Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Equinor ASA is medium due to the availability of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind power. However, the high demand for oil and gas in the energy market reduces the likelihood of substitutes.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is low due to the lack of negotiating power of individual customers in the energy market. Equinor ASA has a diverse customer base, which reduces the dependence on a single customer.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is medium due to the presence of a few large suppliers of equipment and services in the energy industry. However, Equinor ASA's large scale of operations and diversified supply chain reduce the bargaining power of suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the energy industry, including high capital requirements and regulatory hurdles. Equinor ASA's established brand and economies of scale also deter new entrants.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the presence of several large players in the energy industry, including ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, and BP. The industry is highly competitive, and companies compete on price, quality, and innovation.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 39.60%
Debt Cost 5.64%
Equity Weight 60.40%
Equity Cost 5.64%
WACC 5.64%
Leverage 65.57%

11. Quality Control: Equinor ASA passed 5 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

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Quality: 2.6

Yield: 8.8

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.3

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Yield: 8.1

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Equinor

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 6.0

Quality: 5.3

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 5.5

Volatility: 7.3

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BP

A-Score: 6.0/10

Value: 6.3

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 2.7

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 7.7

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A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 7.6

Growth: 4.1

Quality: 4.7

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 9.3

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

277.5$

Current Price

277.5$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows