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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

ManpowerGroup Inc.provides workforce solutions and services in the Americas, Southern Europe, Northern Europe, and the Asia Pacific Middle East region.The company offers recruitment services, including permanent, temporary, and contract recruitment of professionals, as well as administrative and industrial positions under the Manpower and Experis brands.


It also offers various assessment services; training and development services; career management; and outsourcing services related to human resources functions primarily in the areas of large-scale recruiting and workforce-intensive initiatives.In addition, the company provides workforce consulting services; contingent staffing and permanent recruitment services; professional resourcing and project-based solutions in information technology, engineering, and finance fields; solutions in the areas of organizational efficiency, individual development, and career mobility; and recruitment process outsourcing, TAPFIN managed, and talent based outsourcing services, as well as Proservia services in the areas of digital services market and IT infrastructure sector.It operates through a network of approximately 2,200 offices in 75 countries and territories.


The company was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

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1.b. Last Insights on MAN

ManpowerGroup's recent performance was negatively impacted by tepid demand, particularly in Europe, and a soft labor market in the US. Despite Q3 earnings beating expectations, concerns about revenue growth and profitability persist. The company's talent solutions segment experienced a revenue decline due to lower RPO activity and outplacement. Additionally, a business mix shift towards enterprise clients affected gross profit margins. While some analysts expect stabilization in North America and Europe, others cite a Hold rating due to margin pressures.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. ManpowerGroup's Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag with Signs of Stabilization

ManpowerGroup reported third-quarter revenue of $4.6 billion, down 2% year-over-year in constant currency, with system-wide revenue of $4.9 billion. Adjusted earnings per share decreased 39% year-over-year in constant currency to $0.83, beating estimates of $0.82. The company's adjusted EBITDA was $96 million, representing a 22% decrease in constant currency year-over-year. Revenue trends improved, with the Manpower brand growing 3% in the quarter, while Experis declined by 7% and Talent Solutions declined by 8%.

Publication Date: Oct -17

📋 Highlights
  • Revenue Decline & EBITDA Drop:: Q3 revenue fell 2% YoY to $4.6B, with adjusted EBITDA down 22% to $96M.
  • Brand Performance Divergence:: Manpower grew 3%, while Experis and Talent Solutions declined 7% and 8%, respectively.
  • AI-Driven Client Value:: 30% of new client revenue attributed to AI platform Sophie, boosting win rates and differentiation.
  • Q4 Guidance:: EPS forecast at $0.78–$0.88, with revenue guidance of a 2% decrease to 2% increase in constant currency.
  • Gross Margin Pressure:: Enterprise client mix shifted to lower-margin contracts, but margin recovery expected as market improves.

Segment Performance

The company's Manpower brand is starting to see demand coming through and giving growth opportunities. The Experis business was more stable in the US, but still declined year-over-year. The company's gross margin was impacted by a mix shift towards enterprise clients, which averaged in and put pressure on the consolidated margin. Pricing remains competitive, but there have been no dramatic changes.

Outlook and Guidance

ManpowerGroup expects demand in Europe and North America to hold steady and is confident in its positioning for future growth. For the fourth quarter, the company forecasts earnings per share of $0.78 to $0.88, with a constant currency revenue guidance range of a 2% decrease to a 2% increase. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 3.8%, indicating a potential rebound.

Valuation

ManpowerGroup's current valuation metrics indicate a potentially undervalued stock, with a P/E Ratio of -75.93 and a P/S Ratio of 0.09. The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is 12.49, and its Dividend Yield is 6.59%. The stock's Free Cash Flow Yield is 15.73%, suggesting a strong potential for cash generation.

Operational Highlights

The company's Sophie AI platform has helped distinguish itself in the markets, driving measurable gains, with approximately 30% of new client revenue derived from AI-rated probability. ManpowerGroup has seen significant value realization across its global footprint, with recent client wins citing AI-powered insights as differentiators.

Cost Control and Efficiency

The company continues to focus on cost control, digitization, and standardization to drive efficiencies and position itself for future growth. ManpowerGroup has taken significant actions to reduce structural costs, particularly in Northern Europe, and expects to see continued progress in 2025.

Cash Flow and Debt

The company's free cash flow is expected to be strong in Q4, although it was negative in the first half due to working capital uses. ManpowerGroup's net debt to EBITDA ratio is 5.77, indicating a relatively high level of debt. However, the company's efforts to improve EBITDA and free cash flow are expected to help reduce this ratio over time.

3. NewsRoom

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ManpowerGroup and Maricopa Community Colleges Partner to Develop the Next-Generation Semiconductor and Manufacturing Workforce

Nov -11

Source: prnewswire.com

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ManpowerGroup Declares $0.72 Dividend

Nov -10

Source: prnewswire.com

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New Global Research Reveals Employee Growth Is the Key to Business Resilience in the Age of AI and Workforce Transformation

Nov -04

Source: prnewswire.com

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Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd Has $1.01 Million Stock Holdings in ManpowerGroup Inc. $MAN

Nov -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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Nisa Investment Advisors LLC Has $171,000 Holdings in ManpowerGroup Inc. $MAN

Nov -04

Source: defenseworld.net

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CFOs Double Down on AI and Cybersecurity as Tariffs Emerge as Major New Threat

Oct -28

Source: prnewswire.com

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ManpowerGroup Stock Declines 3.2% Since Q3 Earnings Beat

Oct -22

Source: zacks.com

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ManpowerGroup: Margin Has To Inflect Alongside Revenue Growth

Oct -22

Source: seekingalpha.com

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (1.81%)

6. Segments

Staffing and Interim

Expected Growth: 1.8%

ManpowerGroup's Staffing and Interim segment growth of 1.8% is driven by increasing demand for temporary and contract workers, particularly in the IT and healthcare sectors. Additionally, the company's strategic investments in digital platforms and its ability to adapt to changing labor market trends have contributed to its growth.

Outcome-Based Solutions and Consulting

Expected Growth: 1.9%

ManpowerGroup's Outcome-Based Solutions and Consulting segment growth of 1.9% is driven by increasing demand for workforce analytics, talent development, and strategic workforce planning. Clients seek to optimize labor costs, improve productivity, and enhance employee experience, leading to higher adoption of outcome-based solutions. Additionally, the company's consulting services, which focus on HR transformation, change management, and organizational design, also contribute to the segment's growth.

Permanent Recruitment

Expected Growth: 2.1%

The 2.1% growth in Permanent Recruitment from ManpowerGroup Inc. is driven by increasing demand for skilled talent, particularly in IT and healthcare, as well as a rise in permanent hiring in emerging markets. Additionally, the growing need for companies to adapt to changing workforce dynamics and upskill their employees is contributing to this growth.

Other

Expected Growth: 1.7%

ManpowerGroup's 1.7% growth in Other segment is driven by increasing demand for workforce solutions, expansion in emerging markets, and strategic acquisitions. Additionally, the company's focus on digital transformation, talent development, and innovative services has contributed to this growth. Furthermore, the rise of the gig economy and changing workforce dynamics have also fueled demand for ManpowerGroup's services.

Intercompany Eliminations

Expected Growth: 0.0%

Intercompany eliminations from ManpowerGroup Inc. remained flat at 0.0% growth, driven by offsetting transactions between subsidiaries, lack of significant M&A activity, and stable internal reorganization. This suggests a focus on operational efficiency and minimal changes to the company's internal structure.

7. Detailed Products

Contingent Workforce Solutions

Provides temporary, contract, and temporary-to-permanent staffing solutions to clients across various industries

Permanent Recruitment

Offers permanent placement services, including executive search, professional search, and recruitment process outsourcing

Outsourcing

Provides business process outsourcing (BPO) services, including payroll, HR, and procurement outsourcing

Career Transition

Offers outplacement services, including career coaching, resume building, and job placement assistance

Talent Development

Provides training and development programs, including leadership development, skills training, and talent analytics

RPO (Recruitment Process Outsourcing)

Offers customized recruitment process outsourcing solutions to manage clients' recruitment needs

MSP (Managed Service Provider)

Provides vendor management and contingent workforce management services to clients

8. ManpowerGroup Inc.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for ManpowerGroup Inc. is medium, as there are some alternatives available in the market, but they are not very attractive to customers.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers for ManpowerGroup Inc. is low, as customers have limited options and the company has a strong brand presence.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers for ManpowerGroup Inc. is medium, as the company has a diverse supplier base and is not heavily dependent on a single supplier.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants for ManpowerGroup Inc. is high, as the industry is attractive and there are low barriers to entry.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry for ManpowerGroup Inc. is high, as the industry is highly competitive and there are many established players.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 33.16%
Debt Cost 11.39%
Equity Weight 66.84%
Equity Cost 11.39%
WACC 11.39%
Leverage 49.60%

11. Quality Control: ManpowerGroup Inc. passed 4 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Mueller Industries

A-Score: 6.3/10

Value: 4.5

Growth: 7.1

Quality: 7.9

Yield: 2.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 8.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Korn Ferry

A-Score: 5.8/10

Value: 6.2

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 6.3

Yield: 4.0

Momentum: 4.0

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
ManpowerGroup

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 8.3

Growth: 2.9

Quality: 3.6

Yield: 9.0

Momentum: 0.5

Volatility: 5.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Worthington Industries

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 3.6

Growth: 3.1

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 3.0

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 6.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Robert Half

A-Score: 5.0/10

Value: 6.4

Growth: 3.2

Quality: 5.5

Yield: 8.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 6.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Insperity

A-Score: 4.8/10

Value: 5.3

Growth: 6.9

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 7.0

Momentum: 0.0

Volatility: 4.3

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

27.89$

Current Price

27.89$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows