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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. provides various banking products and services in Italy.The company offers current accounts and mortgages and loans.It also provides debit, credit, and prepaid cards; savings and investment products, such as equities and bonds, as well as trading services; and insurance and pension products and services.


The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Basiglio, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on BMED

Banca Mediolanum S.p.A.'s recent performance was driven by a 36% increase in net income, fueled by record-breaking net inflows. The company's robust financials were underscored by a notable 12% year-over-year growth in assets under management. Additionally, Banca Mediolanum's strong earnings were attributed to a 15% increase in net interest income, driven by a rise in interest rates. Furthermore, the company's ability to navigate future challenges and opportunities, as highlighted in its Q4 2024 earnings call, demonstrates its resilience and adaptability.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Banca Mediolanum's 9M 2025 Results: Strong Performance with Record Assets and Customers

Banca Mediolanum reported a robust 9-month 2025 performance, with net income rising 8% to EUR 726 million, driven by recurring fee growth from strong inflows into managed assets. The bank's EPS came in at EUR 0.3326, slightly below estimates of EUR 0.3327. Revenue growth was driven by net inflows of EUR 8.16 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with managed assets flows reaching EUR 6.58 billion, a 21% increase. The cost-income ratio stood at 37.2%, indicating efficient operations. The bank's CET1 ratio was 23.2%, demonstrating a strong capital position.

Publication Date: Nov -16

📋 Highlights
  • Net Income Growth:: EUR 726 million (+8%) driven by recurring fee growth from EUR 6.58 billion managed assets inflows (+21%).
  • Record Milestones:: EUR 150 billion in assets and 2 million customers achieved, with Family Banker network expanded by 4% to 6,682 advisors.
  • Net Inflows Surge:: EUR 8.16 billion net inflows (+14%), including EUR 6.58 billion in managed assets (21% YoY growth).
  • Strong Capital Metrics:: Cost-income ratio at 37.2%, CET1 ratio at 23.2%, and interim dividend of EUR 0.60/share (EUR 443.5 million total).
  • 2026 Guidance:: Net interest income (NII) expected to grow double digits (10% target), with managed assets inflows projected at EUR 8–8.5 billion despite volatility.

Net Interest Income and Margin Analysis

Net interest income (NII) declined 5% to EUR 582 million but is expected to narrow the gap versus last year and move closer to the 2024 result. Management revised NII guidance to -1% from -5% due to EUR 1 billion more in current accounts with no fees. For 2026, NII is expected to increase, driven by maturing low-yield securities and growing deposits. The bank's net interest margin is expected to benefit from these developments.

Assets and Customer Growth

The bank achieved two record milestones: over EUR 150 billion in assets and more than 2 million customers. The Family Banker network expanded by 4% to 6,682, and the Italian network crossed the 5,000 mark, reaching 5,046 financial advisers. This growth is expected to drive future inflows and revenue.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

With a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of approximately 3.37, and a Dividend Yield of 5.03%, the bank's valuation appears attractive. The ROE of 27.9% indicates strong profitability. The bank's generous dividend payout policy is expected to continue, with a basic dividend of EUR 0.80 or EUR 0.85, potentially increasing by EUR 0.05 or EUR 0.08 annually.

Outlook and Guidance

The bank expects to maintain a strong trend in 2026, with net inflows into managed assets expected to remain robust, assuming normal market conditions. Guidance for 2025 includes net inflows into managed assets of around EUR 8.5 billion, a cost-income ratio below 40%, and a cost of risk around 20 basis points. For 2026, NII is expected to grow by double digits, around 10%.

3. NewsRoom

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3 European Dividend Stocks Offering Up To 7.0% Yield

Nov -10

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Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Growth in Net Income and ...

Nov -06

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Is Now the Right Moment for Banca Mediolanum Shares After a 72% Rally?

Sep -13

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Banca Mediolanum (BNCDY) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Net Income Growth Amidst ...

May -09

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Is Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. (BNCDY) the Best Italian Stock to Buy in 2025?

Feb -13

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Banca Mediolanum (FRA:ME1) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Inflows and Robust ...

Feb -07

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Banca Mediolanum (STU:ME1) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Net Income and Robust Asset ...

Nov -08

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Banca Mediolanum's Dividend Analysis

Nov -22

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (11.19%)

6. Segments

Italy - Banking

Expected Growth: 12%

Banca Mediolanum S.p.A.'s 12% growth in Italy's banking sector is driven by its strong digital transformation, increasing demand for wealth management services, and strategic expansion into the southern regions. Additionally, the bank's focus on cost optimization, improved risk management, and investments in fintech have contributed to its growth momentum.

Italy - Asset Management

Expected Growth: 10%

Italy's asset management growth, driven by Banca Mediolanum S.p.A., is fueled by increasing demand for pension funds, insurance products, and wealth management services. A growing middle class, aging population, and favorable regulatory environment contribute to the 10% growth rate. Additionally, digitalization and consolidation in the industry drive efficiency and scalability, further supporting growth.

Italy - Insurance

Expected Growth: 11%

Italy's insurance market, driven by Banca Mediolanum S.p.A., is experiencing 11% growth. Key drivers include an aging population, increasing life expectancy, and a growing demand for pension and retirement products. Additionally, the Italian government's efforts to promote insurance penetration, coupled with digitalization and innovation in the industry, are contributing to this growth.

Spain

Expected Growth: 13%

Spain's 13% growth driven by Banca Mediolanum S.p.A.'s strategic expansion into high-growth regions, increasing demand for digital banking services, and effective cost management. Additionally, the bank's focus on sustainable investments and ESG practices has attracted environmentally conscious clients, contributing to its growth momentum.

Italy - Other

Expected Growth: 9%

Italy's Other segment from Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. achieved 9% growth driven by increasing demand for wealth management services, expansion of private banking offerings, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the segment benefited from a favorable interest rate environment, rising stock market, and growing consumer confidence, leading to increased investments and savings.

Germany

Expected Growth: 14%

Germany's 14% growth driven by strong economic fundamentals, including a highly skilled workforce, favorable business environment, and strategic location at the heart of the EU. Additionally, Banca Mediolanum S.p.A.'s presence in the country benefits from a robust financial sector, supportive government policies, and a growing demand for digital banking services.

7. Detailed Products

Current Accounts

A type of deposit account that allows customers to deposit and withdraw money, and perform various transactions

Savings Accounts

A type of deposit account that earns interest and allows customers to save money

Investment Products

A range of investment products, including mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and bonds

Insurance Products

A range of insurance products, including life insurance, health insurance, and home insurance

Mortgage Loans

A type of loan that allows customers to purchase or refinance a home

Personal Loans

A type of loan that allows customers to borrow money for various purposes, such as consolidating debt or financing a large purchase

Credit Cards

A type of payment card that allows customers to make purchases and pay bills

Wealth Management

A range of services that help customers manage their wealth, including investment advice and portfolio management

8. Banca Mediolanum S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the high level of competition in the banking industry, allowing customers to easily switch to alternative banks.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the bank's strong financial position and ability to negotiate favorable terms with suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is medium due to the high barriers to entry in the banking industry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the high level of competition in the banking industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 70.50%
Debt Cost 3.95%
Equity Weight 29.50%
Equity Cost 10.54%
WACC 5.89%
Leverage 239.02%

11. Quality Control: Banca Mediolanum S.p.A. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Banca Mediolanum

A-Score: 7.7/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BPER Banca

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AIB

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BCV

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Monte dei Paschi

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Oberbank

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

18.16$

Current Price

18.16$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows