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1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in Italy.The company operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, and Wealth Management segments.It offers funding and lending services, insurance products, financial advisory, and electronic payment services; financial and non-financial services; wealth management and financial planning services; consultancy services, such as tax planning, real estate, art, and legal advisory; fiduciary and trust services; and digital banking services.


The company also provides leasing and factoring services for businesses, artisans, and professionals; and medium-and long-term credit facilities, corporate finance, capital markets, and structured finance services.In addition, it offers investment banking products and services; foreign banking services; and custody and deposit services for dairy products on behalf of third parties.Further, the company develops and manages ICT and telecommunication systems.


As of December 31, 2021, it operated a network of 1,368 branches, 126 specialized centers, and 2,621 ATM machines in Italy; 1 operational branch in Shanghai; and 8 representative offices in the areas of Europe, North Africa, India, and China.The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.

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1.b. Last Insights on BMPS

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's recent performance was driven by robust Q3 2025 earnings, showcasing significant profit growth and strategic advancements, particularly with the integration of Mediobanca. The acquisition, valued at $19 billion, has bolstered MPS's position, securing 70.5% of Mediobanca's capital. According to a report, Italy's government prioritizes an MPS-BPM merger to reduce its stake in MPS. Despite a recent share price cooldown, with a 2% downturn, the bank's 21.5% year-to-date price return remains notable. MPS's hostile share-and-cash buyout offer has fueled growth, with shares in both banks rising post-deal announcement.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Monte Paschi's Q3 2025 Earnings: A Strong Performance

Monte Paschi reported a net profit of EUR 474 million for Q3 2025, up 16.5% year-on-year, with a 9-month net profit reaching EUR 1.366 billion, a 17% increase. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at EUR 0.3805, significantly beating estimates of EUR 0.2088. The strong performance was driven by a solid commercial performance, with total commercial savings crossing EUR 174 billion and Wealth Management gross inflows amounting to almost EUR 13 billion in 9 months, up 18% year-on-year.

Publication Date: Nov -11

📋 Highlights
  • Acquisition of Mediobanca:: 86.3% of Mediobanca shareholders tendered shares, completing the strategic acquisition.
  • Net Profit Growth:: 17% year-on-year increase to EUR 1.366 billion for the first 9 months of 2025, excluding tax adjustments.
  • Core Tier 1 Capital Ratio:: Reached 16.9%, reflecting a strong capital position post-acquisition and exceeding initial expectations.
  • Wealth Management Inflows:: EUR 13 billion gross inflows in 9 months, up 18% year-on-year, driven by robust customer confidence.
  • Retail Mortgages Growth:: New retail mortgages granted hit EUR 4.8 billion in 9 months, 2.2x higher than the same period in 2024.

Financial Highlights

The bank's balance sheet remains strong, with a core Tier 1 ratio of 16.9%, including the preliminary impact of the Mediobanca acquisition. The combination with Mediobanca is expected to further strengthen the balance sheet structure of the new group, with a sound liquidity position and counterbalancing capacity above EUR 53 billion. The acquisition has also led to a significant increase in the bank's capital position, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio fully loaded at 16.9%.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Monte Paschi's current valuation metrics indicate a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) of approximately 0.92, suggesting the stock is trading close to its book value. The Dividend Yield stands at 10.3%, one of the highest in Europe, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors. The bank has confirmed its commitment to maintaining a high payout ratio, with plans to distribute a dividend per share broadly in line with the previous year.

Outlook and Integration

The bank expects to achieve significant synergies from the Mediobanca acquisition, with EUR 700 million in industrial synergies targeted. The integration is progressing well, with the new Mediobanca Board appointed on October 28, marking the start of a new phase of development for the combined group. The bank is confident that the combination will create a more resilient, diversified, and innovative group, with a strong industrial rationale.

Growth Prospects

Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 57.9%, driven by the consolidation of Mediobanca and the bank's strong commercial performance. The combination is expected to provide a significant boost to the bank's capabilities, particularly in Corporate & Investment Banking and Private Banking. With a strong capital position and a commitment to delivering sustainable value for stakeholders, Monte Paschi is well-positioned for future growth.

3. NewsRoom

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Is Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BIT:BMPS) Still Undervalued After Recent Share Price Cooling?

Nov -29

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Mediobanca takeover investigation: Monte Paschi CEO and shareholders under scrutiny

Nov -28

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Italy prioritises MPS-BPM merger to reduce stake in MPS – report

Nov -19

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Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMDPF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit Growth ...

Nov -07

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Italy’s Monte dei Paschi Posts Profit Rise Ahead of Mediobanca Integration

Nov -07

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European Value Stock Picks For October 2025

Oct -28

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Italy to set conditions on any Banco BPM-Credit Agricole deal

Sep -24

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Italy to set conditions on any Banco BPM-Credit Agricole deal

Sep -24

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4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.63%)

6. Segments

Retail Banking

Expected Growth: 2.5%

The 2.5% growth in Retail Banking at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increasing demand for digital banking services, expansion of branch networks, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's focus on customer-centric approach, competitive pricing, and innovative product offerings have contributed to the growth.

Corporate Banking

Expected Growth: 2.8%

The 2.8% growth in Corporate Banking at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increased lending to SMEs, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's focus on digital transformation and improved customer service have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the Italian government's support for economic development and the bank's strong risk management practices have also played a role.

Large Corporate & Investment Banking

Expected Growth: 3.2%

The 3.2% growth in Large Corporate & Investment Banking at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increased demand for debt capital markets, strategic M&A advisory services, and growth in transaction banking. Additionally, the bank's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and expansion into new markets have contributed to this growth.

Wealth Management

Expected Growth: 2.2%

The 2.2% growth in Wealth Management at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increasing demand for investment products, expansion of private banking services, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's digital transformation efforts and enhanced customer experience have contributed to the growth.

Corporate Center

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The 2.0% growth of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.'s Corporate Center is driven by increased investment in digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and a focus on core business activities. Additionally, the bank's efforts to strengthen its capital position and improve risk management have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

Personal banking services for individuals, including current accounts, credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages.

Corporate Banking

Financial services for businesses, including cash management, trade finance, and corporate lending.

Private Banking

Wealth management services for high net worth individuals, including investment advice and portfolio management.

Asset Management

Investment products and services, including mutual funds, pension funds, and institutional mandates.

Insurance

Life and non-life insurance products, including life insurance, accident insurance, and property insurance.

Leasing and Factoring

Financial services for businesses, including leasing and factoring solutions.

Treasury and Markets

Financial markets services, including foreign exchange, commodities, and interest rate derivatives.

8. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the high level of competition in the banking industry, giving customers the power to choose from a range of financial institutions.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the bank's large size and scale, giving it significant negotiating power over its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the banking industry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the high level of competition in the banking industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 63.11%
Debt Cost 9.19%
Equity Weight 36.89%
Equity Cost 9.19%
WACC 9.19%
Leverage 171.09%

11. Quality Control: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Banca Mediolanum

A-Score: 7.7/10

Value: 6.1

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 8.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BPER Banca

A-Score: 6.7/10

Value: 6.6

Growth: 5.2

Quality: 6.2

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
AIB

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 6.0

Growth: 6.2

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
BCV

A-Score: 6.5/10

Value: 4.0

Growth: 5.8

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.0

Volatility: 9.7

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Monte dei Paschi

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 8.4

Growth: 3.9

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 9.0

Volatility: 3.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Stock-Card
Oberbank

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 4.1

Growth: 7.0

Quality: 4.8

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

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Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

7.59$

Current Price

7.59$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows