Download PDF

1. Company Snapshot

1.a. Company Description

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. provides retail and commercial banking services primarily in Italy.The company operates through Retail Banking, Corporate Banking, and Wealth Management segments.It offers funding and lending services, insurance products, financial advisory, and electronic payment services; financial and non-financial services; wealth management and financial planning services; consultancy services, such as tax planning, real estate, art, and legal advisory; fiduciary and trust services; and digital banking services.


The company also provides leasing and factoring services for businesses, artisans, and professionals; and medium-and long-term credit facilities, corporate finance, capital markets, and structured finance services.In addition, it offers investment banking products and services; foreign banking services; and custody and deposit services for dairy products on behalf of third parties.Further, the company develops and manages ICT and telecommunication systems.


As of December 31, 2021, it operated a network of 1,368 branches, 126 specialized centers, and 2,621 ATM machines in Italy; 1 operational branch in Shanghai; and 8 representative offices in the areas of Europe, North Africa, India, and China.The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.

Show Full description

1.b. Last Insights on BMPS

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's recent performance has been positively driven by robust Q3 2025 earnings, showcasing significant profit growth and strategic advancements, particularly with the integration of Medibanka. The acquisition of an 86.3% stake in Mediobanca is expected to enhance growth prospects. Furthermore, a potential merger with Banco BPM, as prioritized by the Italian government, could lead to synergies. The bank's strong profit rise, ahead of Mediobanca integration, also underscores its improving financial health.

1.c. Company Highlights

2. Monte Paschi Group's Strong 2025 Results and Promising Outlook

Monte Paschi Group reported a net profit of EUR 2.750 billion for the full year 2025, representing a 17.7% year-on-year increase. The net operating profit grew by 6.4% to EUR 1.860 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) came in at EUR 0.3805, significantly beating analyst estimates of EUR 0.2088. The company's commercial performance remained robust, with growth observed in savings, inflows, mortgages, and consumer finance. The asset quality improved, with the gross NPE ratio decreasing to 3.5% and the net NPE ratio at 1.8%. The cost of risk also decreased to 40 bps for the full year 2025.

Publication Date: Feb -11

📋 Highlights
  • Full-Year Net Profit:: EUR 2.750 billion, a 17.7% increase from 2024.
  • Capital Strength:: Common equity Tier 1 ratio fully loaded at 16.2%.
  • Mediobanca Integration:: Combined pre-tax profit of EUR 1.7 billion (Monte Paschi) and EUR 376 million (Mediobanca Q4 2025).
  • Asset Quality:: Gross NPE ratio at 3.5%, net NPE ratio at 1.8% (down from prior periods).
  • Future Synergies:: Target EUR 700 million in cost synergies by 2026 without Mediobanca delisting.

Capital Position and Combination with Mediobanca

The company maintains a solid capital position, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio fully loaded at 16.2%. The combination with Mediobanca is progressing, creating a new strong player in the banking sector. The target group structure is aligned with the industrial rationale of the offer. The integration process is advancing with discipline, speed, and purpose, guided by a clear organization blueprint. The business plan for the combination is expected to be presented on February 27, detailing corporate reorganization and updated targets.

Outlook and Synergies

The company expects the trends to continue into 2026, with an acceleration of commercial dynamics and solid growth in fees and commissions. On a pro forma basis, this trend is expected to support a year-on-year increase in group profit before tax. The target of EUR 700 million synergies can be realized without a delisting of Mediobanca. The full integration of Mediobanca with Monte Paschi will include a complete set of information during the business plan presentation.

Valuation and Dividend Yield

Monte Paschi's shares are currently trading at EUR 8, with a Price-to-Tangible Book Value (P/TBV) ratio of approximately 0.99. The dividend yield stands at around 9.92%, indicating an attractive return for investors. The company's strong capital position and expected growth in fees and commissions are likely to drive the stock's performance. Analysts estimate next year's revenue growth at 4.1%, suggesting a positive outlook for the company.

3. NewsRoom

Card image cap

A Look At Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s Valuation And Merger Story With Mediobanca

07:08

Source:

Card image cap

Monte dei Paschi board greenlights Mediobanca merger and delisting plan

Feb -18

Source:

Card image cap

Mediobanca Shares Rise After Monte dei Paschi Outlines Delisting Plan

Feb -18

Source:

Card image cap

Monte Paschi board member resigns amid insider trading probe

Feb -11

Source:

Card image cap

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMDPF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Profit ...

Feb -10

Source:

Card image cap

Financial Services Roundup: Market Talk

Feb -10

Source:

Card image cap

Monte Dei Paschi Net Profit Surges After Mediobanca Takeover

Feb -10

Source:

Card image cap

A Look At Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BIT:BMPS) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Performance

Jan -14

Source:

4. Business Breakdown

4.a. Revenues by Country

4.b. Revenues by Segment

5. Expected revenues mid-term growth (2.63%)

6. Segments

Retail Banking

Expected Growth: 2.5%

The 2.5% growth in Retail Banking at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increasing demand for digital banking services, expansion of branch networks, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's focus on customer-centric approach, competitive pricing, and innovative product offerings have contributed to the growth.

Corporate Banking

Expected Growth: 2.8%

The 2.8% growth in Corporate Banking at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increased lending to SMEs, expansion into new markets, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's focus on digital transformation and improved customer service have contributed to the growth. Furthermore, the Italian government's support for economic development and the bank's strong risk management practices have also played a role.

Large Corporate & Investment Banking

Expected Growth: 3.2%

The 3.2% growth in Large Corporate & Investment Banking at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increased demand for debt capital markets, strategic M&A advisory services, and growth in transaction banking. Additionally, the bank's focus on digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and expansion into new markets have contributed to this growth.

Wealth Management

Expected Growth: 2.2%

The 2.2% growth in Wealth Management at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is driven by increasing demand for investment products, expansion of private banking services, and strategic partnerships. Additionally, the bank's digital transformation efforts and enhanced customer experience have contributed to the growth.

Corporate Center

Expected Growth: 2.0%

The 2.0% growth of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.'s Corporate Center is driven by increased investment in digital transformation, cost savings initiatives, and a focus on core business activities. Additionally, the bank's efforts to strengthen its capital position and improve risk management have contributed to its growth.

7. Detailed Products

Retail Banking

Personal banking services for individuals, including current accounts, credit cards, personal loans, and mortgages.

Corporate Banking

Financial services for businesses, including cash management, trade finance, and corporate lending.

Private Banking

Wealth management services for high net worth individuals, including investment advice and portfolio management.

Asset Management

Investment products and services, including mutual funds, pension funds, and institutional mandates.

Insurance

Life and non-life insurance products, including life insurance, accident insurance, and property insurance.

Leasing and Factoring

Financial services for businesses, including leasing and factoring solutions.

Treasury and Markets

Financial markets services, including foreign exchange, commodities, and interest rate derivatives.

8. Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A.'s Porter Forces

Forces Ranking

Threat Of Substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. is medium due to the presence of alternative financial institutions and digital payment systems.

Bargaining Power Of Customers

The bargaining power of customers is high due to the high level of competition in the banking industry, giving customers the power to choose from a range of financial institutions.

Bargaining Power Of Suppliers

The bargaining power of suppliers is low due to the bank's large size and scale, giving it significant negotiating power over its suppliers.

Threat Of New Entrants

The threat of new entrants is low due to the high barriers to entry in the banking industry, including regulatory requirements and capital requirements.

Intensity Of Rivalry

The intensity of rivalry is high due to the high level of competition in the banking industry, with many established players competing for market share.

9. SWOT Analysis

Strength

Weaknesses

Opportunities

Threats

10. Capital Structure

10.a. Balance Sheet

10.b. Weighted Average Cost of capital

Value
Debt Weight 63.11%
Debt Cost 9.19%
Equity Weight 36.89%
Equity Cost 9.19%
WACC 9.19%
Leverage 171.09%

11. Quality Control: Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A. passed 3 out of 9 key points

12.a Historical Valuation

12.b Price/Earnings Ratio

12.c Margin Valuation

12.d Peers Valuation

Peers Group Analysis

Stock-Card
Banca Mediolanum

A-Score: 7.4/10

Value: 4.3

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 8.2

Yield: 9.4

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 8.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
AIB

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 5.1

Growth: 6.6

Quality: 7.7

Yield: 6.9

Momentum: 9.5

Volatility: 4.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
BCV

A-Score: 6.6/10

Value: 3.7

Growth: 5.9

Quality: 4.9

Yield: 7.5

Momentum: 7.5

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
BPER Banca

A-Score: 6.4/10

Value: 4.7

Growth: 4.9

Quality: 5.7

Yield: 8.1

Momentum: 10.0

Volatility: 5.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Monte dei Paschi

A-Score: 5.5/10

Value: 5.7

Growth: 3.4

Quality: 5.9

Yield: 6.2

Momentum: 8.5

Volatility: 3.3

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report
Stock-Card
Oberbank

A-Score: 5.2/10

Value: 3.9

Growth: 6.8

Quality: 5.1

Yield: 2.5

Momentum: 3.0

Volatility: 10.0

1-Year Total Return ->

View Full Report

Peers Metrics

12.e Scoring Insights

12.f DCF BETA

Parameters

Short Term Growth

Short term Time

Long-Term Growth

WACC

Target Price

8.67$

Current Price

8.67$

Potential

-0.00%

Expected Cash-Flows